Protestant Ireland

What if England's attempts to convert Ireland to protestantism were a complete success, barring the obvious catholic minority such as exists in Scotland - how might these butterflies effect current day politics? I suspect no partition of Ireland but would it still be in the UK or would the Gaelic/Celt nationalist still be strong enough to call on a war on independance?

The Society of United Irishmen was formed by Protestants after all.

Jonjo said:

What if England's attempts to convert Ireland to protestantism were a complete success, barring the obvious catholic minority such as exists in Scotland - how might these butterflies effect current day politics? I suspect no partition of Ireland but would it still be in the UK or would the Gaelic/Celt nationalist still be strong enough to call on a war on independance?

The Society of United Irishmen was formed by Protestants after all.

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A most likely POD would be King Henry VIII making a more determined effort to impose "religious conformity" on Ireland. This would be achieved by translating the bible into Gaelic and giving lands from dissolved monasteries to the Irish aristocrats to get them onside.

An Anglican Ireland would very likely mean that the Plantation of Ulster does not occur. Also it is likely come the 18th century that the Gaelic speaking areas of Ireland convert to some Calvinist creed (like Wales, Cornwall and the Scottish Highlands did). I would reckon Calvinist forms of the Methodist or Baptist creeds would convert a lot of Gaels. Although in the 17th century you could see Gaelic speaking Scottish Presbyterian missionaries converting the Irish to Presbyterianism, which would mean come the English civil war Ireland would support the Parliamentary side.

Emergent Irish nationalism would be Gaelic and Non-Conformist Protestant at that, instead of the form which emerged in the 19th century of being Catholic and English speaking.

One of the impediments to Protestantism in Ireland was that it was seen as the religion of the conqueror and remaining Catholic was viewed as a badge of honour by the population. Another was the fact that Protestantism spread faster among richer, more literate people's, Ireland at the time was more like Spain than England, translating the Bible into Gaelic is all well and good but if the vast majority can't even read Gaelic then the effect is limited.

It also needs to be borne in mind is that despite the stated intention of the Penal Laws being to eradicate Irish Catholicism, for the most England never really tried to enforce them to their maximum extent. Robert Kee covers this in A History of Ireland, legally any Friars caught in Ireland were supposed to be deported, yet an Augustinian Friary operated quite openly in the centre of Galway during all this time. Kee states that had the police tried to evict the Friars there would have been serious rioting and many Protestants actually regarded the Penal Laws as harsh. So there was an unofficial policy of "Quietism" followed, as long as Catholics kept the peace then the authorities were often prepared to look the other way. Now and again they had to be seen to be trying to enforce the laws so Kee recounts how one day, the police in Galway searched the Friary and reported that they found nothing. The Friary records for the day in question notes the payment of "A Bottle of Wine for Ye Sheriffs!!"

The Oncoming Storm said:

One of the impediments to Protestantism in Ireland was that it was seen as the religion of the conqueror and remaining Catholic was viewed as a badge of honor by the population. Another was the fact that Protestantism spread faster among richer, more literate people's, Ireland at the time was more like Spain than England, translating the Bible into Gaelic is all well and good but if the vast majority can't even read Gaelic then the effect is limited.

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Neither did a lot of Welsh either, however the bible was translated into Welsh during the 16th century.

Despite Wales nominally becoming Anglican, the Roman Catholic faith and High Church Anglicanism remained strong there during the 17th and 18th centuries. Then the Welsh started converting to the Methodist and Baptist creeds. So I can imagine quite the same thing in Ireland.

Also during the Elizabethan settlement could spread the myth that Christianity in Ireland had originally been Protestant and that the Catholic church was an alien imposition. Latter was true, because the native Celtic Christianity had been replaced by Roman Catholicism during the Norman Conquest of Ireland.

However there is the added twist that the Gaelic speaking areas (or were a century or two before the 16th century) of South-West Scotland was where the fires of the Reformation really were bright. In OTL a lot of the Protestant colonists to Ulster in the 17th century came from there. So in a nominally Anglican Ireland, Presbyterian missionaries speaking Gaelic would have an easier time converting the Gaelic population, than they did in OTL (they did have a little success in Ulster).

The Oncoming Storm said:

One of the impediments to Protestantism in Ireland was that it was seen as the religion of the conqueror and remaining Catholic was viewed as a badge of honour by the population.

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I can see that working in favor of the Gaelic 'non-conformist' Protestanism scenario Teejay proposes. If Protestant Anglicanism has been forced on the population successfully, the Baptist and Presbyterian denominations could become seen as the 'anti-English' religion.

Teejay said:

Neither did a lot of Welsh either, however the bible was translated into Welsh during the 16th century.

Despite Wales nominally becoming Anglican, the Roman Catholic faith and High Church Anglicanism remained strong there during the 17th and 18th centuries. Then the Welsh started converting to the Methodist and Baptist creeds. So I can imagine quite the same thing in Ireland.

Also during the Elizabethan settlement could spread the myth that Christianity in Ireland had originally been Protestant and that the Catholic church was an alien imposition. Latter was true, because the native Celtic Christianity had been replaced by Roman Catholicism during the Norman Conquest of Ireland.

However there is the added twist that the Gaelic speaking areas (or were a century or two before the 16th century) of South-West Scotland was where the fires of the Reformation really were bright. In OTL a lot of the Protestant colonists to Ulster in the 17th century came from there. So in a nominally Anglican Ireland, Presbyterian missionaries speaking Gaelic would have an easier time converting the Gaelic population, than they did in OTL (they did have a little success in Ulster).

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A lot of catholics in northern England too.

It just generally wasn't a big issue for most English monarchs. As long as the catholics were loyal (which of course was always doubtful given they were catholic) then they could do what they wanted in private- since a disloyal peasant didn't really matter since they couldn't do anything a lot of them thus remained such.

The issue in Ireland wasn't so much that protestantism was the religion of the conquerer as there was lots of Spanish and later French money and military support on offer to good catholic brothers willing to fight against the protestant menace. If there's one thing Ireland had no shortage of it was would-be kings of Ireland.
Flipping France protestant isn't such a hard thing to do. Do that and you can also neutralise Spain's antagonism with England to a large extent- France is far more of a concern- and so decrease unrest in Ireland.

Ireland might of seen more invasions from Catholic France or Spain as a backdoor into England.

Money.

The English Kings regarded Ireland as a drain, as soon as they put down rebellions they would disband the armies raised to crush them.

You would be seeing years of very expsensive wars which is the last thing the English want apart from an independent Ireland.

So no way would the English do any more than necessary to keep the protestant minority in power as it would cost too much and likely lead to more Franco-Spanish interference.

Jonjo said:

What if England's attempts to convert Ireland to protestantism were a complete success, barring the obvious catholic minority such as exists in Scotland - how might these butterflies effect current day politics? I suspect no partition of Ireland but would it still be in the UK or would the Gaelic/Celt nationalist still be strong enough to call on a war on independance?

The Society of United Irishmen was formed by Protestants after all.

Click to expand...

One might start by having Henry Frederick Stuart, eldest son of James I & VI, survive to adulthood and reign for thirty years or so. Henry was described as "an obdurate Protestant" with strong Calvinist leanings. One can easily imagine him devoting considerable effort to suppressing Catholicism in Ireland.

Henry was born in 1594, and James died in 1625, so Henry would succeed at age 31. If he reigned for 35 years, that would be enough time for such a project - at least to the extent of making Protestantism the majority religion.

Of course there are other major knock-ons from this - probably no English Civil War, to begin with. Further down the road, the Catholic Church in America would be much smaller without Irish Catholics. Irish clergy completely dominated the Church in America in the late 1800s. This led to the formation of the Polish National Catholic Church by Catholic Poles who couldn't stand being bossed around by Irish bishops and having only Irish priests.

There would be far fewer Catholics in Scotland - most of them are descended from Irish immigrants who fled the famine for the factories of Britain. (Note that Glasgow's "Catholic" football team is "Celtic" with a green shamrock emblem.)

Irish politics would be decisively affected. In the Kingdom of Ireland, the Parliament was rigged to have a Protestant majority. There would also be the question of the Church of Ireland. OTL, it was tied to the Church of England and Presbyterian "Dissenters" were also largely excluded from political power. Under Henry IX, the Churches of England and Ireland would be more Calvinist, and there would be fewer "dissenters" as well as fewer "Catholics". Thus the Parliament would be substantially more representative.

It's still likely that Ireland would feel oppressed by Britain and be rebellious. However, the Home Rule question would not be complicated by the religious question. Many Ulster Protestants aren't just anti-Catholic, they're fanatics on the issue. Ian Paisley believes that Jesuits are literally agents of the Devil. When Home Rule was proposed in the 1800s, Ulster Protestants were faced with rule by a Catholic-dominated government - very Catholic-dominated. That's what made Home Rule intolerable to the point of threatened rebellion in 1914. If Ireland is Protestant, most likely Ulster is as Nationalist or even Republican as the rest.