If this is possible what scenarios could allow it to be, while still keeping the same leaders and troop numbers.
Last edited:
Possibility of Union Victory at 1st Bull Run?
- Thread starter Erasmus Darwin Keyes
- Start date
A more aggressive Federal commander in the Valley engages Joe Johnston's Army of the Shenandoah at Bunker Hill and - regardless of the results - this makes it impossible for the AotS to slip away to Manassas and come to Beauregard's rescue, permitting McDowell's flank attack to roll up the Army of the Potomac (CS) and claim the field.
I know numbers don't always mean everything, but even though both sides were rather evenly matched, would a few extra thousand troops on the Union side do anything?
Who do you beleive could be possible candidates for the union command out in the valley? If there is to be more aggression, would the fighting still be at Bunker Hill or within the area of Winchester, Strasburg, possibly Front Royal or nearby these places?
Last edited:
In all actuality there were 18,000 soldiers under one Robert Patterson who were on hand to aid, but the general never took the oppurtunity to press south after confederate reenforcements and link up with McDowell's main force at Manassas. Thats an entire Division, so yes.
Almost anyone would be more agressive than Patterson who was rendered pretty much static by Jackson/Stuart's regard at Falling Waters and A.P. Hill's attack at Romney.
When Patterson began his attack Johnston moved to meet him at Bunker Hill before Winchester, but Patterson never came, leaving Johnston to occupy Winchester and move away soon after, bound for Manassas. A battle in the Shenandoah would happen at Bunker Hill or Winchester.
Is there anyway Holme's men could have been checked at all? Maybe if there was more of Union presence around the mouth of Aquia Creek with schooner gunboats and a few thousand men could have stopped him.
But I'm not sure if that section of the potomac was navigable by schooners or anything larger, so I don't if this would be practical.
But I'm not sure if that section of the potomac was navigable by schooners or anything larger, so I don't if this would be practical.
Last edited:
Have we all come to consensus that this man:
Major General Robert Patterson has/should have had no future as leader of the Union Army of the Shenandoah?
Let alone a brigade or regiment?
Major General Robert Patterson has/should have had no future as leader of the Union Army of the Shenandoah?
Let alone a brigade or regiment?
Last edited:
OTL - During the fighting on Henry House Hill, T. J. Jackson was wounded in the hand. He shrugged off the wound, and continued to lead his Virginia brigade in the magnificent stand that won him the sobriquet of "Stonewall". They held the Hill against heavy Union attacks for about two hours, allowing several previously routed units to rally and reinforcements to arrive from the far right flank.
By then the Union forces were becoming exhausted and demoralized from increasing casualties. When the Confederates counterattacked, the Union troops broke completely, with most units dissolving in panic.
ATL - During the fighting on Henry House Hill, T. J. Jackson was shot in the chest and killed instantly. Lacking his strong leadership, the Virginia brigade crumbled under heavy Union attacks during the next hour, allowing the Union forces to fall upon and destroy several previously routed Confederate units trying to rally.
By the time Confederate reinforcements arrived from the far right flank, the Confederate left and center had broken completely, with most units dissolving in panic.
So would the reeforcments try to temporarily stifle there advance or would they immediately withdrawl and would it be a confusing retreat or an orderly movement.
What about Jackson never even taking part in the battle.
Maybe a more descisive battle at Hoke's Run? (Falling Waters) Were his command there completely crumbles.
Is this likely? Probably not, but still, think about it.
Maybe a more descisive battle at Hoke's Run? (Falling Waters) Were his command there completely crumbles.
Is this likely? Probably not, but still, think about it.
Once full-blown panic started, there would be little thought on the Confederate side of trying to continue the battle.
The troops arriving from the far right flank would be in good order, and would not be carried away by the panic. (OTL there were some Union reserves which remained in good order, north of Bull Run.)
Johnston and Beauregard would deploy those troops to cover the retreat.
I don't think there would be much Union pursuit. By the time the fight at Henry House Hill was won, the Union forces would be pretty exhausted. One must remember that the Union attack began with a long flanking march against the Confederate left; over ten miles IIRC. That march came before the fighting; so by late afternoon, the Union troops would have marched ten miles, then fought for six hours, with no food and not much water. Also, the Union had no effective cavalry force.
The important alt-fact is that the Confederates would be driven off the field of battle, with many of their men fleeing in abject terror. This defeat would be a severe humiliation - a complete deflation of the Confederate jingoism which asserted that "brave Southern gentlemen" would easily thrash the "pasty-faced mechanics" of the North.
The OTL result confirmed that jingoism for a while, and gave the nascent Confederacy a massive psychological boost. Union victory would have the opposite effect - a major psychological blow when commitment to the CSA was still tentative for many. It could lead to major desertions from the cause, and possibly the complete unravelling of the rebellion.
Maybe Tennessee and North Carolina would rethink there partcipation in the war, possibly even Virginia.
So after the Army of the Potomax rests for a few days, do they continue south and take Richmond, or do they fight another battle inbetween - like around the wilderness or Rappahanock River? I can't imagine them simply sitting there after winning.
The propaganda value would boost unionists in Kentucky. If they are able to decisively side with Washington and end the "neutrality" nonsense, then both Grant and Buell can begin moving into Kentucky and threaten Tennessee. If Richmond is taken, I think this is almost guaranteed.
In any case, the early part of the war will have provided several crucial union victories. By Spring 1862, it'll be almost only Union victories giving a huge morale boost to the Union troops and discouraging the Confederates early on.
It really depends on what happens to Virginia. Do the Confederates rally forces and hold the line somewhere in Virginia? Or does the Union reclaim the state? If so, what happens? Do Virginians continue to fight outside their state, or do many give up, depriving the Confederacy many soldiers and commanders?
Depending on what does happen, I can see 2-3 years of hard fighting before the war ends in 1863 or 1864, or everything collapsing and the war ending before end of 1862.
The propaganda value would boost unionists in Kentucky. If they are able to decisively side with Washington and end the "neutrality" nonsense, then both Grant and Buell can begin moving into Kentucky and threaten Tennessee. If Richmond is taken, I think this is almost guaranteed.
In any case, the early part of the war will have provided several crucial union victories. By Spring 1862, it'll be almost only Union victories giving a huge morale boost to the Union troops and discouraging the Confederates early on.
It really depends on what happens to Virginia. Do the Confederates rally forces and hold the line somewhere in Virginia? Or does the Union reclaim the state? If so, what happens? Do Virginians continue to fight outside their state, or do many give up, depriving the Confederacy many soldiers and commanders?
Depending on what does happen, I can see 2-3 years of hard fighting before the war ends in 1863 or 1864, or everything collapsing and the war ending before end of 1862.
Well any movement out west would have to depend on whether or not Nathaniel Lyon is successful in Missouri and Arkansas (either no battle at Wilson's Creek, another battle elsewhere or a Union victory at Wilson's Creek) and if Grant makes a more descisice move against Leonidas Polk's Confederates around Belmont as per OTL.
Once the Army of Northeastern Virginia is more organized, I believe the first order of business would be to extend the term of enlistment for union soldiers. The confederate Army of the Potomac, although severely demoralized will still have an intact force in Virginia probably trying to reorganize around either Culpeper Court House or Fredericksburg. Hell, maybe they would fall back into the Shenandoah or as far as Charlottesville and Waynesboro or even make a stand at Richmond itself.
Once the Union army is ready even if only partially, with additional reenforcments, will make as far as, oh I don't know, somewhere in between Fredericksburg and Richmond. Fredericksburg itself or some other point on the Rappahannock and possibly along the North Anna, South Anna rivers.
Once the Army of Northeastern Virginia is more organized, I believe the first order of business would be to extend the term of enlistment for union soldiers. The confederate Army of the Potomac, although severely demoralized will still have an intact force in Virginia probably trying to reorganize around either Culpeper Court House or Fredericksburg. Hell, maybe they would fall back into the Shenandoah or as far as Charlottesville and Waynesboro or even make a stand at Richmond itself.
Once the Union army is ready even if only partially, with additional reenforcments, will make as far as, oh I don't know, somewhere in between Fredericksburg and Richmond. Fredericksburg itself or some other point on the Rappahannock and possibly along the North Anna, South Anna rivers.
The Wilderness would be avoided at all costs. Now I'm not assuming McDowells cavalry was the greatest but when they hit the Rappahannock, McDowell will have at least a good knowledge of what lies 5 miles to the west of Fredericksburg. So from there on I believe McDowell's advance would be southeast through the tidewater directly towards Richmond. Of course the original plan stated for a dual movement ( the Shenandoah army advancing down the valley then swinging east for a link up with McDowell's main force) But in this scenario McDowell gets his reenforcements directly following the battle at Bull Run as we no it alone with victory. Thus of course this we'll delay the campaign so, McDowell, in order to keep his momentum and the politicos in Washington appeased, he'll have a preliminary advance to Warrenton and then Fredericksburg or were ever the remnants of the rebel forces go were they are most highly concentrated.
Now the question is, what will the confederates do? And where will the next battle be? Virginia,Missouri,Kentucky or Tennesee? Or none of the above as we may be soon straying into the deep south with the upcoming actions at port royal, or does this happen at all?
Bull Run was fought about 20 miles from Washington. Richmond is about 200 miles from Washington. The Union army of 1861 was not capable of such an overland march.
The Confederates will "rally and hold the line" in the short term; but the question is whether the CSA can stay in the field as the Union applies more force. Not only in Virginia, but in other states.
For instance - Kentucky's "Orphan Brigade". Will as many of them march south to join the CSA as OTL? Will even the leaders be so sure it's a good idea? OTL the Brigade went south when Bull Run was still the only major action of the war to date, and it was reasonable to think that the Yankees could all be whipped easily. ATL, going south looks a lot more problematic.
When the Union army does move forward in Virginia, the Confederate force that meets it will be smaller and less enthusiastic. They may have one serious fight left in them, but if that goes badly, any hope of victory in the war gets thin - and without that, not many soldiers will stick to a cause, unless they've already been fighting a long time.
What say you about the size and leadership of confederate forces throughout the south.