...with no POD before 1976, so under "normal" circumstances (as in, no "Fear, Loathing, and Gumbo"-style scenarios).
So I was reading through primary results from the 1976 presidential election, and I noticed that the infamous Alabama Governor George Wallace actually did pretty well in the early contests. In the Massachusetts primary in particular, he came in third behind Scoop Jackson and Mo Udall, respectively, but it was a very thin margin between the top three placers.
Seeing as there was a lot of overlap between the kind of voters Jackson and Wallace were going for (apparently, Jackson chose to run on a strong "law-and-order" platform), what if Scoop makes some sort of huge gaffe in the days leading up to the primary. He loses some support to Wallace, allowing the latter to narrowly edge out Udall for first place. Wallace then uses that momentum to best Iowa caucus winner Jimmy Carter (the POD is after the caucus) in the states of Florida, North Carolina, and even possibly Illinois, which all held their contests within the first few weeks after Massachusetts.
After that, just how likely is it that Wallace wins the nomination? He was popular among many Southerners and blue collar workers, but will the Democratic leadership, fearful of nominating the arch-segregationist, coalesce behind an anti-Wallace candidate, and who would that be? Assuming he wins the nomination, who becomes his running mate?
How does he do in the general election? Specifically, how would he do against Ford, and how would he do against Reagan if he somehow won the GOP nomination? I'd imagine it's possible Republicans get a fairly large portion of the African-American vote. Would Wallace try to make amends to prevent that? And seeing the nature of the Democratic nominee, would left-wing third party candidates (particularly Eugene McCarthy) get a higher number of votes than usual?
Discuss.
(DISCLAIMER: I dislike George Wallace and would vote against him if given the opportunity. This is strictly a "what-if?" question.)
So I was reading through primary results from the 1976 presidential election, and I noticed that the infamous Alabama Governor George Wallace actually did pretty well in the early contests. In the Massachusetts primary in particular, he came in third behind Scoop Jackson and Mo Udall, respectively, but it was a very thin margin between the top three placers.
Seeing as there was a lot of overlap between the kind of voters Jackson and Wallace were going for (apparently, Jackson chose to run on a strong "law-and-order" platform), what if Scoop makes some sort of huge gaffe in the days leading up to the primary. He loses some support to Wallace, allowing the latter to narrowly edge out Udall for first place. Wallace then uses that momentum to best Iowa caucus winner Jimmy Carter (the POD is after the caucus) in the states of Florida, North Carolina, and even possibly Illinois, which all held their contests within the first few weeks after Massachusetts.
After that, just how likely is it that Wallace wins the nomination? He was popular among many Southerners and blue collar workers, but will the Democratic leadership, fearful of nominating the arch-segregationist, coalesce behind an anti-Wallace candidate, and who would that be? Assuming he wins the nomination, who becomes his running mate?
How does he do in the general election? Specifically, how would he do against Ford, and how would he do against Reagan if he somehow won the GOP nomination? I'd imagine it's possible Republicans get a fairly large portion of the African-American vote. Would Wallace try to make amends to prevent that? And seeing the nature of the Democratic nominee, would left-wing third party candidates (particularly Eugene McCarthy) get a higher number of votes than usual?
Discuss.
(DISCLAIMER: I dislike George Wallace and would vote against him if given the opportunity. This is strictly a "what-if?" question.)