War elephants and an intact Byzantine Italy

[Magnum]

I thought about doing a TL about this, but then decided it would be seen as to much of a wank, and so decided to just try a discussion. Basically, I'm curious to see how you guys see the Roman Empire in general and Italy in particular following much better results during Justinians reign.

Basic outline:


530 AD

Politician, general and diplomat Hermogenes read up on Pyrrhus and his campaigns while in Constantinople, and becomes quite fascinated by the topic. (POD)

Justinian sends him to aid Belisarius form his army and also to take part in a diplomatic mission to the Sassanids. Sassanid King Kavadh refuses to negotiate, and Persian and Roman forces clash at Dara, where Hermogenes shares command with Belisarius. Together, they defeat the Sassanids (OTL)

Having read up on Pyrrhus' campaigns against Rome, Hermogenes urges Belisarius to pursue the enemy more vigorously, so as to prevent them escaping and then having to fight them again. Belisarius is reluctant, but accepts, and a large part of the Persian force is cut down by the Bucelarii (1)

At Satala, another major Roman victory appears to change the entire balance of power in the region. (OTL)


531 AD

After negotiations got nowhere, the two main forces clash near Callinicum. With the Persians having suffered heavy the past year, the Romans eventually gained the upper hand and pushed their foes against the river, where many drowned. Belisarius' men however also suffered heavy losses, and the general was unable to push forward and capitalize on his victory. (2)

Kavadh dies in late 531, and his son Khosrau I succeeds him. He is however very insecure on his throne and desperately needs to make peace.


532 AD

In Constantinople, a riot nearly brakes out, but the tensions are quelled early enough. Following this, Justinian reinstates the pantomimes and venationes, so as to fill the theaters and amphitheaters back, and thus reduce the influence of the chariot racing teams. (3)

The Eternal Peace is signed, and it is very favorable to the Romans. Apart from paying a moderate amount of gold and withdrawing the base of the dux Mesopotamie from the fortress of Dara to the city of Constantina, the Romans gain lots of concessions. Among them are a number of war elephants, a clause Hermogenes had insistently been pushing for.


533 AD

A Roman force under Belisarius defeats the Vandals after two decisive battles, with little damage to the countryside, occupying the region. For this, he is awarded a triumph and hailed as "Africanus" .

Hermogenes continues to build up the force of war elephants.


(1) - OTL, Belisarius only offered a small chase before calling it quits
(2) - OTL was the other way around
(3) - the Nika riots cost the Romans lots of men and money and a large part of their capital burned. Here, those expenses are avoided, and they don't get to build the Hagia Sophia again. On the flip side, lots of unemployed people in Constatinople

- more later -

[Basileus Giorgios]

Looks interesting- though it should be remembered that animal hunts and pantomimes were probably organised by the racing factions at this point too, so Justinian's not going to reduce their influence this way.

[Cecil]

Just out of curiosity when did the northern african forest elephant die out? I´m pretty sure they were VERY uncommon at least by 6th century AD.

Oh you are using asian elephants....well the west asian elephant I´m pretty sure was extinct in the 6th cuntury too. I suppose you could import them from India but that seems like a major bother.

[Herzen's love-child]

Originally Posted by Cecil

Just out of curiosity when did the northern african forest elephant die out? I´m pretty sure they were VERY uncommon at least by 6th century AD.

Oh you are using asian elephants....well the west asian elephant I´m pretty sure was extinct in the 6th cuntury too. I suppose you could import them from India but that seems like a major bother.

The Sassinids did use war elephants OTL so I suppose in this POD, this isn't utterly implausible. Did the Sassinids use Indian elephants? I'm going to say yes.

[Magnum]

Originally Posted by Cecil

Just out of curiosity when did the northern african forest elephant die out? I´m pretty sure they were VERY uncommon at least by 6th century AD.

Oh you are using asian elephants....well the west asian elephant I´m pretty sure was extinct in the 6th cuntury too. I suppose you could import them from India but that seems like a major bother.

Originally Posted by Herzen's love-child

The Sassinids did use war elephants OTL so I suppose in this POD, this isn't utterly implausible. Did the Sassinids use Indian elephants? I'm going to say yes.

yes, the Sassanids did use them. Here's a quote by the one and only Belisarius regarding Persian troops:

Right for you to despise them. For their whole infantry is nothing more than a crowd of pitiable peasants who come into battle for no other purpose than to dig through walls ... and in general to serve the soldiers. For this reason they have no weapons at all with which they might trouble their opponents, and they only hold before themselves those enormous shields and huge elephants.

Whereas Procopius writes of the Siege of Edessa by the Sassanian King Kavadh

Then Kavadh became furious, and armed the elephants that were with him, and set out.. and came again to fight with Edessa

So the Persians were most definetely using war elephants, probably imported Indian ones, though the exact species in not important.


Hope to finish the short story today.

[Magnum]

Originally Posted by Basileus Giorgios

Looks interesting- though it should be remembered that animal hunts and pantomimes were probably organised by the racing factions at this point too, so Justinian's not going to reduce their influence this way.

Can't he have other teams formed to organize the events ?

[Magnum]

534 AD

Frankish king Clothar, son of Clovis, dies while campaigning in Burgundy together with his brother Childeric, having contracted an unkown illness from a band of mercenary Vandals who fled the destruction of their kingdom. The resulting chaos sees the invasion return home, and Burgundian King Godomar gets to keep his throne

Ostrogothic King Athalaric decides, in a personal revelation, to end the lifestyle imposed upon him by Gothic nobles and flees to his mother, Amalasuntha, hoping she could protect him and let him live the way of the Romans. He also cuts back heavily on drinking.

Gothic nobles pressure the king's mother to give him back to them, so that he may live the life of a warrior. She refuses, and tries to once again execute the conspirators. This time, it backfires, and the she and her son flee to Salona in Ilyria, near the border with the eastern Roman Empire, taking most of the treasury with them.

In Constantinople, Belisarius arrives and celebrates his triumph.

Gothic nobles proclaim Theodahad, the largest kingdom’s largest landowner and last male relative of Theodoric the Great, as King. He marches against Salona so as to capture the fugitives. Amalasuntha appeals to Justinian for help.

A byzantine force led by Mundus and Hermogenes (including all the elephants and a substantial amount of Bucelarii) engages Theodahad’s Goths that while they were besieging Salona. With few of the Goths having seen an elephant before, the battle turns into a rout and most Gothic infantry are trapped and destroyed by the superior byzantine cavalry.

A second version of the codex Justinianus is published.

[Magnum]

535 AD


Following his defeat, Theodahad looses much credibility with his nobles and is eventually killed and replaced by Witiges. The new king rallies his forces and a new Gothic army descends upon Ilyria.

In Ilyria, Hermogenes sails along with most of the elephant force across the Adriatic into Italy where he links up with Belisarius and reinforcements. Meanwhile, Mundus continues to advance north, but is defeated by Witiges and falls back to Salona, where he is besieged.

After some minor victories, Belisarius, now in overall command, takes all of his forces and sails back into Ilyria, north of Salona, in order to trap the Goths.

Witiges' forces successfully storm Salona, killing Mundus and most of the defenders and leaving much of the city in rubble. Marching north, they meet Belisarius' troops but are forced to retreat back into the city. Witiges sends word for reinforcements.

With great difficulty, the Goths assemble a new army and march south to relieve their king. Although having attempted to take some measures against them, the elephants still caused havoc among the Gothic lines, causing another disaster for them. Some though did manage to link up with Witiges, who then took the combined force south.

Over the following months, the Gothic army repeatedly tried to escape, only to be pushed further and further south. Eventually, Belisarius caught up to them and destroyed the army completely, aided by the fact that the entire Gothic right wing defected to queen Amalasuntha (who was also present alongside Belisarius). By now, all Roman elephants had died.


536 AD

Belisarius enters Ravenna, pretending to accept the Gothic offer of Kingship, only to betray them. In the ensuing fight, a large part of the city burns down. Athalaric and Amalasuntha are reinstated, although real power now rests with the Romans.

King Godomar of the Burgundians submits to Justinian in exchange for protection against the Franks.

Extreme weather conditions hit Europe, causing widespread crop failure.


537 AD

The Goths attempt an uprising against the Romans, but fail to make any headway, being themselves divided. In response, Justinian orders Belisarius and Amalasuntha to take their forces (including the entire Gothic population) and, together with Godomar, attack the Franks.

The campaign is moderately succesfull, and the Goths establish a new kingdom (under Roman "protection") west and north of Burgundy.

Justinian start a huge program of public works in Italy to win over the loyalty of the Italians. Resettlement of the Balkans by the Romans also begins. Ravenna is abandoned, with the administration being based in Rome. Justinian also visits Rome, where he is acclaimed by the population and Senate.

[altwere]

You have by concentrating the Goths in a small area allowed for thre possability for the survival of both the Gothic and Burgundian languages. although they may have both been dialects of east Germanic. So far its been interesting.

[Elfwine]

A couple o' questions.

1) How are the Romans getting war elephants. Imports from India would be tricky with the Sassanids in the way, and very much interested in preventing them.

2) Why the hay is Ravenna being abandoned? Even if the capital is moved back to Rome (sounds like a bad idea to me, but Justinian might not get it), Ravenna' being abandoned makes little sense.

[Magnum]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

A couple o' questions.

1) How are the Romans getting war elephants. Imports from India would be tricky with the Sassanids in the way, and very much interested in preventing them.

They're getting them as part of a one-time deal from the Sassanids following the conclusion of the eternal peace.

The Sassanids already had them on-hand, could always import more, and concluded, rather reasonably, that the Romans would have little use for the beasts when facing them, since they were well accustomed with the elephants and could easily counter them. On the other hand, handing over more land or getting less gold seemed far less advantageous, so they went for the cheap version, namely give the Romans some of their elephants.

Unless they squeeze some more out of the Sassanids, the Romans aren't getting any more elephants, even more now that the Persian have seen how much of an edge the Romans gained by using them (not that that edge would have lasted in a prolonged war against an enemy that would eventually become accustomed to the animals)

2) Why the hay is Ravenna being abandoned? Even if the capital is moved back to Rome (sounds like a bad idea to me, but Justinian might not get it), Ravenna' being abandoned makes little sense

I figured that it would have been thoroughly burned out when Belisarius rode in and backstabbed the Goths, and probably once again when the Goths rose up. Add in a small plague that probably springs up with all the bodies lying around, and few people would want to live there. However, you're probably right, and some people might still want to live in the city, though (especially if Justinian decides not to fund reconstruction) it wouldn't be too many.


How do you guys find the rest of the TL ?

[Elfwine]

Makes sense on the elephants, though the fate of Ravenna seems a bit extreme, long-term.

Otherwise, nice concept.

[Magnum]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Makes sense on the elephants, though the fate of Ravenna seems a bit extreme, long-term.

Otherwise, nice concept.

Thanks.


So, back to the original question, how do you guys view the future of italy in particular, and the empire in general ? But, since asking such a general question rarely gets any response, I thought about going into specifics:

How will the economy fare ?

Will we see more or less innovation ?

Will an intact Italy that has acces to African and Sicillian grain prosper ?

What kind of effects can we expect of the plague under the current settings ?

What kind of religious controversies and compromises would come up ?

Will the west be fully reintegrated into the Roman world ?

What are the empire's biggest threats over the long term ?

What kind of social developments can we expect ?

What kind of evolution will the languages of the mediteranean have (bilingual Roman empire ? surviving burgundian and goth ? etc)


I was thinking about writing a sort of epilogue, but the decided it would be best to hear your opinions on the above matters first.

[Elfwine]

My thoughts on the areas I feel comfortable throwing out an answer.

What kind of effects can we expect of the plague under the current settings ?

Probably about the same as OTL. Of course, invading Lombards taking advantage of it is less likely - but the plague will probably kill as many people (more or less), but there will be more ability to soak it up.

What kind of religious controversies and compromises would come up ?

No reason they'd be different than OTL's. Besides butterflies and other unpredictable forces.

Will the west be fully reintegrated into the Roman world ?

What are the empire's biggest threats over the long term ?

No & Persia respectively. The Balkans may be a problem, but not a serious threat.

[altwere]

linquistically I think that with a stronger ERE the spread of islam will be slower and the Empire will do better holding on to much of the middle east.
The southern Slavs will be squeezed as the Empire encourages resettlement of the northern Balkans from the west. The eastern Romance speaking area will be larger, who knows Thracian if it is still spoken might survive. As for the East German languages. Their biggest problem OTL was they were often spoken just by a spread out top layer. It TTL they have been pushed into a small area where their speakers might outnumber the romance speakers, which will greatly help with there survival.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by altwere

linquistically I think that with a stronger ERE the spread of islam will be slower and the Empire will do better holding on to much of the middle east.
The southern Slavs will be squeezed as the Empire encourages resettlement of the northern Balkans from the west. The eastern Romance speaking area will be larger, who knows Thracian if it is still spoken might survive. As for the East German languages. Their biggest problem OTL was they were often spoken just by a spread out top layer. It TTL they have been pushed into a small area where their speakers might outnumber the romance speakers, which will greatly help with there survival.

Is the ERE necessarily going to be stronger at that point (assuming Islam isn't butterflied away)?

It may have too much concentrated in the West, which would balance out any advantages of controlling more of Italy and then some.

Not trying to just devil's advocate, but I think it is important that the RE won't be in the same position if it is trying to rebuild its position in the West throughout the century odd from Justinian to *Heraclius.

[altwere]

I think they will be. The war in Italy is mostly finished so it's not a bleeding sore lasting most of a generation. The balkans are slowly being re-romanized/hellenized. Most of the Goths have been pushed northeast over into Gaul. Those that are left will probably be absorbed within a couple of generations. This should help with the finances of the empire.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by altwere

I think they will be. The war in Italy is mostly finished so it's not a bleeding sore lasting most of a generation. The balkans are slowly being re-romanized/hellenized. Most of the Goths have been pushed northeast over into Gaul. Those that are left will probably be absorbed within a couple of generations. This should help with the finances of the empire.

And then what?

If the Romans continue to try to rebuild the Empire in the West, that will be a money and manpower diversion - it may have beneficial effects or not, but it's money and men not in the East.

[altwere]

With Italy as part of the Empire. The ERE now has at least for a while a stable western Frontier. Hopefully Justinian will be happy with that and worry more about the Persians . I think that the Goths will
be more worried about the Franks for a while, and so are out of the picture for years. Any Emperor needs to worry about the Persians. The Persian are or are just about to have another succession crisis. With no western war going on would the ERE attempt to conquer some of the western Saptrapies?

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by altwere

With Italy as part of the Empire. The ERE now has at least for a while a stable western Frontier. Hopefully Justinian will be happy with that and worry more about the Persians . I think that the Goths will
be more worried about the Franks for a while, and so are out of the picture for years. Any Emperor needs to worry about the Persians. The Persian are or are just about to have another succession crisis. With no western war going on would the ERE attempt to conquer some of the western Saptrapies?

The ERE had a stable western frontier whether or not Italy is conquered (or retaken, if you prefer), so I don't think that had much to do with his plans in the West OTL - Justinian sent an expedition to Spain of all places late in his reign.

As for the Persians, their coming OTL crisis in regards to the throne is the end of the 580s (and Justinian dies in 565).

So Justinian might try try to go east or might try to continue his project in the West, hard to say. Where's BG when we need him.