Reverse Barbarossa

nikkythegreat

What if Hitler goes to his senses and does not attack the USSR, instead focuses on getting Britain out of the war and focuses on building an airforce to knock her out of the war.

Then come say 1943 Stalin is finally done with his modernization enough that he is confident to attack Nazi occupied Europe.

What happens then, who would win?
 

Doctor Imperialism

nikkythegreat said:
What if Hitler goes to his senses and does not attack the USSR, instead focuses on getting Britain out of the war and focuses on building an airforce to knock her out of the war.

Then come say 1943 Stalin is finally done with his modernization enough that he is confident to attack Nazi occupied Europe.

What happens then, who would win?
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Stalin was a very cautious man. He only took the Baltics while the West was distracted with Germany, and took Poland once he was confident that all eyes were on Hitler. Stalin attacking Hitler - who, having not invaded Russia, would be riding on a wave of successes - would be enormously out of character for the man.

That's not even mentioning how hard it would be to get Hitler to not invade Russia; lebensraum was, after all, a core element of Nazism. You could handwave that away by saying he decided to postpone Barbarossa, but that leaves the aforementioned problem of Stalin.
 

Catspoke

Agree with Doctor Imperialism. It would seem insane to attack into Germany, a country with he most fearsome military reputation in the world. It would make much more sense to wait until a major second front was happening in the west. At least 1944, maybe 45.

I would pick on Japan in 1943 if she were in as in OTL and dare Germany to invade if she wanted to do something about it.

If not that use your growing strength to gain concessions from Germany peacfully.
 

cimon

Catspoke said:
Agree with Doctor Imperialism. It would seem insane to attack into Germany, a country with he most fearsome military reputation in the world. It would make much more sense to wait until a major second front was happening in the west. At least 1944, maybe 45.

I would pick on Japan in 1943 if she were in as in OTL and dare Germany to invade if she wanted to do something about it.

If not that use your growing strength to gain concessions from Germany peacfully.
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There was no "second front" chance with Russia out the war;The superiority of Germany would have made any notion like that prohibitive.
Plus an intact german army without its losses in the east,would not be for Stalin's teeth.
Many circles in Germany would appload if Stalin did that(attack Japan...)
 

The Red

Catspoke said:
Agree with Doctor Imperialism. It would seem insane to attack into Germany, a country with he most fearsome military reputation in the world. It would make much more sense to wait until a major second front was happening in the west. At least 1944, maybe 45.
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Why wait until 1944/45 (or maybe 46) when the Allies have a foothold on Europe, better to go for it in 1943 when they have no plans to do so and thus will take longer to appear on the continent? Better to attack in 1943 and end up further west than you would have otherwise. Although this depends how dug in the Germans would have been in the east in 1943, with the expansion of the Red Army, at least the majority of the Wehrmacht would remain there.
 

jmc247

Catspoke said:
Agree with Doctor Imperialism. It would seem insane to attack into Germany, a country with he most fearsome military reputation in the world. It would make much more sense to wait until a major second front was happening in the west. At least 1944, maybe 45.
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That would be in character for Stalin. To wait for the Western Allies and Germany to weaken each other before attacking. That was his plan in allying with Hitler in the first place... to gain land in Eastern Europe and then watch as Germany and France and the UK bleed each other in what he thought would devolve into a WW1 style mess in France and then invade when the Red Army is rested and ready and the Western European armies are weakened and bloodied and take as much of Central and Western Europe as he could.

After France fell like a stack of cards, lets just say Stalin's plans kind of fell apart. In this timeline where Hitler avoids hitting him until he has dealt with the UK and soon the U.S. Stalin will have the time to build up his forces to a level where he can wage an offensive war on Germany, but he will be gun shy about doing so until towards the middle of the decade exactly for the reasons you talked about. The German Army at that point would have a reputation as being one of the best the world had ever seen and Stalin wouldn't know how his forces would stack up against them.
 

Michele

nikkythegreat said:
What if Hitler goes to his senses and does not attack the USSR, instead focuses on getting Britain out of the war and focuses on building an airforce to knock her out of the war.

Then come say 1943 Stalin is finally done with his modernization enough that he is confident to attack Nazi occupied Europe.

What happens then, who would win?
Click to expand...

The decisive thing that happens in this scenario happens well before 1943.

In OTL, we know that Stalin, believing Hitler wouldn't be going to attack the USSR, began closing the taps, especially the oil one, in the spring of 1941. The Germans were in the red, their payment schedule to the USSR had been delayed, and a new round of trade negotiations was slated for the summer of 1941. The Soviets were going to ask for the up-front payment of all arrears. The alternative, obviously, would have been the interruption of all deliveries.

This, in a scenario in which Stalin wrongly believed he wouldn't be attacked.

In a scenario in which Germany is indeed not going to attack the USSR, and it's neglecting tanks and building strategic bombers? The Soviets do indeed close the taps. By the fall of 1941 the Germans (and Italians) have a shortage of rubber and manganese. By the winter, a shortage of oil and foodstuffs. The European Axis military machine begins to rust, instead of developing into anything really threatening for the British Commonwealth.
 

Richter von Manthofen

If we conclude that AH does the amost ASB-ish thing and NOT invade the SU...

What impact does this have on the war?

More support for NA?

Japan still attacks the USA?

DOW on the US does not really make sense in 1941 for Germany? - if no war with SU why them with US?

Churchill "hoped" for a second front - this not happening and GE/IT a little more sucessful in Africa...

Might we get a peace in Europe in 1942? (given Japan attacks and is like sucessful in early 1942 as OTL)

If all that - yes then Germany can retreat from the occupied territory in the West - even gaining some goodwill (freeing Allied capacities for the Pacific war)

This leads to an earlier japanese defeat 1943/44 ??

But more important Germany has full resources against SU - so I doubt that Stalin will attack a full strength Germany...
 

Michele

Richter von Manthofen said:
DOW on the US does not really make sense in 1941 for Germany? - if no war with SU why them with US?
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Uh, what about:
- US convoys to Britain,
- USA assumed to be with their hands full with Japan?
If the Germans are still at war with the British, and not with the Soviets, then the British have even more need of US supplies, sent across the Atlantic largely on US cargo ships, and escorted by USN warships, and with comfy LL solutions for the payment thereof. A big big casus belli for Germany.
Add that if they aren't trampling overland in Soviet territory, they'll have more U-Boote and warships and airplanes. i.e. the wherewithal if it comes to stop that blatant US violation of a neutral's duties.
 

Richter von Manthofen

If AH is sane enough to NOTattack SU then you can assume he is also sane enough to NOT attack the US...

Lend lease to UK - definitely an increase compared to OTL, but not that much...

If Germany and SU are on good terms then economic cooperation will continue (possibly even German "lend lease" to Japan via the Transsib (Give Japan a decent number of Pz III + Pz IVs... or later even some Cats...)
 

Michele

Richter von Manthofen said:
If AH is sane enough to NOTattack SU then you can assume he is also sane enough to NOT attack the US...

Lend lease to UK - definitely an increase compared to OTL, but not that much...
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No? The USA aren't arming their own army and the Red Army, and you call that surplus not much?

If Germany and SU are on good terms then economic cooperation will continue
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Hell no. The Germans can't pay. In OTL, they weren't paying. Trade negotiations were slated to resume in the summer of 1941, and the first point in the Soviet agenda would have been: pay the arrears or we close the taps. Study the economics of the war, before everything else.
 

Richter von Manthofen

The Red said:
It's not that easy, to avoid war with the US he'll have to avoid the quasi-war in the Atlantic, in other words abandon any attempts to starve the British out.
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Not necessarily - shooting at warships in an declared warzone is different from declaring war on the US.. I am NOT saying the US won't construct a casus belli (later!)

Michele said:
No? The USA aren't arming their own army and the Red Army, and you call that surplus not much?



Hell no. The Germans can't pay. In OTL, they weren't paying. Trade negotiations were slated to resume in the summer of 1941, and the first point in the Soviet agenda would have been: pay the arrears or we close the taps. Study the economics of the war, before everything else.
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US IS ARMING their Army as Japan likely attacks nontheless. Some of SU lend lease might go to UK - of corse, but I won't count 100% - and UK must be able to use it (UK does not grow men out of nothing)

that germany can't pay is definitely a problem, but the SU might setttle on buying tech and weapons from Germany (Germany can produce for SU - THAT matter can be settled ;))

It won't be easy, but its manageable ...
 

Michele

Richter von Manthofen said:
US IS ARMING their Army as Japan likely attacks nontheless.
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Unlikely. The whole sequence that led to the Japanese attack heavily depended on things happening in OTl that aren't happening in this one. The Soviet Union, for instance, is not at war. The IJA will scream that going South is leaving the recently hot Mongolian-Manchurian area in danger.

Some of SU lend lease might go to UK - of corse, but I won't count 100% - and UK must be able to use it (UK does not grow men out of nothing)
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Might? You bet. As to manpower, that's not an issue. The war you are portraying between the British and the Germans is not manpower intensive, being waged by the navies and air forces.

that germany can't pay is definitely a problem, but the SU might setttle on buying tech and weapons from Germany (Germany can produce for SU - THAT matter can be settled ;))

It won't be easy, but its manageable ...
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The heck it is. The Germans trusting the Soviets and selling them the rope with which to hang them (the Germans)? I'm using a very fitting manner of speaking used by a Communist leader, BTW. In short order, the temptation for Stalin to ally with the British against the real threat for the SU, Germany, will be too great.
And, in any case, if the Germans really do sell weaponry to the Soviets, then they aren't fielding it against the British.

The truth is that in that war, it's not as if the various players had many sane choices to make. More often than not, they chose to do what they did because the alternatives were at least as bad, if not worse - barring, of course, giving up, which would have been the saner alternative for their peoples, but maybe not for the health of the leaders themselves.
 
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