WI Hulagu Stayed

[John Fredrick Parker]

Say Hulagu doesn't return to Mongolia in 1260 (can be Mongke Khan lives longer, or Ariq Böke doesn't try to seize power, or whatever works) -- and that he stays in the West long enough to defeat the Marmelukes and, if not technically conquer and rule, then at the least neutralize Egypt (AAR, the Nile runs red with blood and black with ink, and all the rest).

My question -- what does Hulagu do next? Does he stick around to try to subjugate Egypt thoroughly? Does he move east to consolidate his rule in the Ilkhanate?

Or do his conquests continue, and if so, where? Does he move against the Crusader States? Does he seek out grassier areas for his armies to move into, like Antalonia? If so, is it possible he tries to march on Constantinople? Or -- and this sounds pretty crazy to me, but I've seen it suggested here before -- do his armies move south or west, into Africa?

[GrizzlyTrotsky]

I don't have much to add, but I don't quite know if Hulagu will move against the Crusader states, at least in the short run. There's really not much they can do against the Ilkhanate by this point, at IIRC, he actually attempted to establish some sort of alliance with them. It's been a while since I last read about this, but I seem to recall something about even trying to tempt them with promises of Jerusalem; the fact that he had a Christian wife may have had something to do with it. As for what beyond it; I can't see the Mongols going much past Egypt, and I'm not entirely sure it had the staying power to thoroughly subjugate it. Most likely he would end up smashing the current power structure and whatever is left will be vassals or otherwise sending tribute rather than directly ruling. After all, there's not much pasture for their horses in the area.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Originally Posted by GrizzlyTrotsky

As for what beyond it; I can't see the Mongols going much past Egypt, and I'm not entirely sure it had the staying power to thoroughly subjugate it... Most likely he would end up smashing the current power structure and whatever is left will be vassals or otherwise sending tribute rather than directly ruling. After all, there's not much pasture for their horses in the area.

I really agree with this -- well, certainly if "beyond" means further westward of southward, which would just take the mongols into desert. I do, however, have this persistent image in my head of Hulagu's forces making their way into Anatolia, if just to be more in their element with the grasslands...

[thekingsguard]

I think he would be content to smash the Mamlukes, leave some vassals in his wake then turn home, maybe throwing the Crusader states some table scraps en route.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Originally Posted by thekingsguard

I think he would be content to smash the Mamlukes, leave some vassals in his wake then turn home, maybe throwing the Crusader states some table scraps en route.

Could even be the Kingdom of Jerusalem/Acre gets Jerusalem back; AAR, I see the Levant Crusader states, without the Marmluke threat, surviving well into the 14th Century. Could well be the mongols do so much depopulating in the area around the Levant, Syria, and Anatolia, that the "Crusader" and "Roman" populations are actually a lot demographically stronger in the decades to come. This isn't even to mention the longer term effects of Egypt's devastation, like when Mansa Musa goes on Hajj six decades later...

[RGB]

Egypt is hard on horses but very wealthy. I think the potential danger will be recognized and there may be enforced divisions before the Mongols go back to the nearest grasslands, lest it arise as a power again.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Originally Posted by RGB

Egypt is hard on horses but very wealthy. I think the potential danger will be recognized and there may be enforced divisions before the Mongols go back to the nearest grasslands, lest it arise as a power again.

So how long could Egypt be kept down? And given that, how long before the Egyptian society and economy recovers from this kind of blow? And given that, just how screwed are other connected economies (like the Italians states)?

[WhatIsAUserName]

Not sure if anybody mentioned this, but wouldn't Hulagu still be distracted by a possible war with Berke?

[John Fredrick Parker]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

Not sure if anybody mentioned this, but wouldn't Hulagu still be distracted by a possible war with Berke?

I actually did not know about Berke Khan -- though yeah, he would have to deal with him (it's guaranteed given Berke's perfectly understandable religious outrage).

My guess -- and I'm going mainly be Wikipedia here -- is without Monge Khan's conveniently timed death, Hulagu would have still had time to "take care" of any military threat Egypt might pose (after all, Berke was still busy in 1259-60 raising money for his war with Hulagu by raiding Poland); so when the Golden Horde did move against the Blue* , they'd be minus one ally who, OTL, was crucial toward helping them fight to a stalemate; if Mongke supports Hulagu at least to the degree Kublai did (as I'm fairly sure he would), the war would be a lot more one sided.

*I think I've got those right

[RGB]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

So how long could Egypt be kept down? And given that, how long before the Egyptian society and economy recovers from this kind of blow? And given that, just how screwed are other connected economies (like the Italians states)?

Depends on how badly it's destroyed the first time round. I think a generation or two, at most, to be honest, unless the Crusader-Mongol alliance becomes something permanent and functional (it was not OTL).