Portugal's King Sebastian I, the Victorious?

[Tyg]

Suppose that King Sebastian's crusade against Morocco is successful, due to the army of Abd Al-Malik being stricken with plague, dysentery, or whatever other depressingly common and debilitating diseases armies often contracted. Portugal extracts further concessions from Morocco, and restores its preferred candidate to the Moroccan throne, all without the Spanish volunteers that never showed up as agreed.

Sebastian survives the war unscathed, but at one point or another gets endangered, driving the point home that the Kingdom needs an heir. Other than a Hapsburg, are there any obvious marriages that present themselves at this point? A marriage alliance that draws Portugal into European wars seems disadvantageous, and its recent victory against Morocco suggests that the country does not need Spain's assistance to maintain and expand the realm. Still, a royal marriage is too good a diplomatic opportunity to dismiss, especially as the King has no need to shore up support by marrying into domestic nobility. Perhaps there are some creative choices here?

Assuming Sebastian does manage to produce an heir, and avoids being drawn into Spanish wars in Europe, Portugal seems likely to prosper tremendously. The Portuguese Empire of trade and plantations seems apt to absorb quite a bit of the gold and silver flowing out of South America, and without being shackled to Spain, the country has the potential to invest in the maintenance and expansion of its economic foundation. More than that, Portuguese trade and shipping might be left unmolested by Dutch and English opportunistic attacks, or at least relatively so compared to OTL. That leaves the possibility of Portugal being capable of maintaining its trade posts in Asia and Africa as a basis for further consolidation of Indian Ocean networks.

The era of Portuguese exploration and expansion doesn't have to be over, after all. Australia is yet to be discovered, and Southern Africa has a great deal more potential that could be exploited on a more permanent basis. Commercial competition with the Dutch would also be all for the better in this hypothetical Portugal, if it means adopting new and better ideas in finance, commercial law, and so on. Even without wanking the Portuguese empire, it seems easy to see it being in a better position going into the 17th century.

But I'm just speculating, and many of you must know better. How does a stable, independent Portugal adapt to the changing times and wars of religion in Europe?

[The Professor]

Hmm perhaps his cousin Infanta Catherine?

[Space Oddity]

Sebastian had proposed to his cousin Isabella Clara Eugenia, daughter of Philip II, who, I must repeat, is one of history's coolest women. Still, such a marriage would have to deal with several difficulties--Isabella's similar marriage to a cousin was childless IOTL; Sebastian REALLY doesn't care for women; and this is a marriage between two of the most inbred houses in Europe, who have been inbreeding with each other for decades now. (Seriously. Dom Sebastian and the late Don Carlos, for example, are DOUBLE cousins.)

[kasumigenx]

Perhaps he could marry into the Valois or Bourbon royal house.

[Tobit]

According to the Wiki article it looks like Catherine de'Medici wanted him and Margaret of Valois to marry. Sebastian was such a crusader that he would likely make a very poor King of France.

[Hyperbolus]

The most fascinating scenario for King Sebastian would be his leaving a greater religious legacy. Have the Iberian Union last at least a century,with several abortive rebellions against Castille. Eventually, Sebastian is lionized into a 12th imam analogue by embattled Portuguese Catholics.

[kasumigenx]

Originally Posted by Tobit

According to the Wiki article it looks like Catherine de'Medici wanted him and Margaret of Valois to marry. Sebastian was such a crusader that he would likely make a very poor King of France.

The Avis and the Braganzas are cadet Capetian lineages...

[Tobit]

Originally Posted by kasumigenx

The Avis and the Braganzas are cadet Capetian lineages...

I imagine that Sebastian could gain the support of the Guises and he would have the support of Spain and what money his Portuguese Domains could give. Still the war for France would be very bloody, and if Sebastian doesn't die in Africa he might end up dead in France.

It would also mean a France without an Edict of Nantes, and instead likely a continued war to the total annihilation of the Protestants of France.

[kasumigenx]

Originally Posted by Tobit

I imagine that Sebastian could gain the support of the Guises and he would have the support of Spain and what money his Portuguese Domains could give. Still the war for France would be very bloody, and if Sebastian doesn't die in Africa he might end up dead in France.

It would also mean a France without an Edict of Nantes, and instead likely a continued war to the total annihilation of the Protestants of France.

The only remaining capetian lineages that time other than the Valois are:
-Bourbon-La Marche
-Bourbon-Busset
-Courtenay
-Avis
-Braganza

[Tobit]

Some interesting outcomes of this is the fact that if Sebastian's invasion is successful then the succession in Morocco will different as well. The Ottoman backed Saadi were very successful in ruling Morocco and eventually invaded Timbuctoo and destroyed the Mali empire. If Morocco is more docile, and inward ruling under a Portuguese backed Saadi sultan, Mali will have a different history. Perhaps Portugal will try to spread their influence there.

I think it will be in Portugal's best interest to not get involved in France, and hopefully Sebastian can avoid a too interbred relationship.

[M. Adolphe Thiers]

Originally Posted by kasumigenx

The Avis and the Braganzas are cadet Capetian lineages...

They're also illegitimate Cadet lines. Considering how strict the French were about succession, that's going to pose problems.

[Tobit]

Originally Posted by M. Adolphe Thiers

They're also illegitimate Cadet lines. Considering how strict the French were about succession, that's going to pose problems.

Hmm, that gives a lot of credence on the side of the Bourbons. I would bet that Sebastian would not get to rule France for very long, because he would be seen as a foreign monarch imposed by the Pope, Catherine de'Medici, and the Spanish, all of whom were not very popular in France at the time. This might possibly result in a Protestant France.

[Max Sinister]

The story I read goes that he had sworn not to touch any woman until he had conquered Morocco, toppled the Caliph/sultan of Egypt, liberated Constantinople from the Turks AND the Holy City of Jerusalem from the Muslims.

Also, he wanted to become emperor of Morocco himself. He even had the crown forged. Also, he had brought thousands of guitars to Morocco to celebrate his victory, and a whole ships full of rope to bind his prisoners of war.