Potential naval powers?

[Shtudmuffin]

So, I was wondering-could these nations:

-Belgium

-Netherlands

-Spain

-Austria-Hungary

-Brazil

-Peru

have built a larger navy than they possessed IOTL? If so, why didn't they attempt to increase the size of their naval forces? What might change those causes?

(The time period would be from about 1830 up to WWI)

Oh, and let me know if I'm missing any nations.

[Vnix]

Austria-Hungary is a primary land based power and I don't expect them to focus on their navy much more then in OTL.

The Netherlands, Belgium and Spain could indeed easilly be more powerful

[Elfwine]

Financial issues, I suspect, related to having other concerns more pressing than naval power.

[Vnix]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Financial issues, I suspect, related to having other concerns more pressing than naval power.

regarding the Netherlands, they simply relied too much on their neutrality, but if they had opened their eyes like Wilhelmina wanted, the Netherlands would have been far stronger in Asia, Europe and the Americas.

[ByzantineCaesar]

If Brazil had kept its monarchy its Armada would rank among the top 5 in the 20th century.

[jycee]

Originally Posted by ByzantineCaesar

If Brazil had kept its monarchy its Armada would rank among the top 5 in the 20th century.

Or if the Republican Brazil had taken better decisions at the start, and Brazil avoided its early 20th century lag.

Even more so if Brazil had kept the Portuguese Colonies in Africa - in a scenario where more of the Portuguese court and elite leaves during the Napoleonic Wars and stays in Brazil. Brazil subsequent navy could easily be in the top 3 and be a major force in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

[ByzantineCaesar]

Originally Posted by jycee

Or if the Republican Brazil had taken better decisions at the start, and Brazil avoided its early 20th century lag.

Nah, the Brazilian Republic is an institution of the Army and the Armada is therefore ignored.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by Vnix

regarding the Netherlands, they simply relied too much on their neutrality, but if they had opened their eyes like Wilhelmina wanted, the Netherlands would have been far stronger in Asia, Europe and the Americas.

Do the Netherlands have the economic muscle at this point to be "far stronger"?

[kasumigenx]

Sulu
Sulu was an important trading center in South East Asia, I think it could have been a Naval power in South East Asia.

[Vnix]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Do the Netherlands have the economic muscle at this point to be "far stronger"?

at the time of WW1 they were theoretically cpable of have double the OTL navy. It was however decided that since we were neutral that we did not need it. The KNIL however was expanded quite a bit during those times in Indonesia, which was more advanced in tech then the Koninklijke Landmacht.

While the Dutch economy at the time was still somewhat backward, it was powerful enough to double the navy, this mostly since the navy was so damned small. Had WW1 not broken out the Dutch would have made several big warships, based on the pocket battleship idea, the keels were however never laid down because of WW1.

[Tizoc]

Originally Posted by Vnix

Had WW1 not broken out the Dutch would have made several big warships, based on the pocket battleship idea, the keels were however never laid down because of WW1.

What pocket battleships? Those ships were to be normal battleships, with 8 343mm cannons each. They were anything but "pocket". maybe you mistaked them with pre-WW2 projected battlecruisers (with 9 280mm guns each and 34 knots speed).

[Gannt the chartist]

Any one could have but given the rate of change in the time period you are looking at either a fleet that becomes obsolete in 10 years (max) or a very sustained building programme over many decades which implies a clear national interest.

You are more likely to get a spurt of purchase then an obsolete fleet costing money.

Belgium could but why?
Dutch ditto - until the rise of the IJN you are talking about defending the DEI against err the RN and MN both of whom could make their argument off the coast of Holland.

There could be a nice dutch/belgian cold war in the early period though.

Spain possibly but they would go broke very quickly so its likely to be a one off at some point in the time period then decreputude. If they get a war when the fleet is new thts would be another matter.

AH could, but why? its really a consequence of Italy existing and a reaction. Could be technologically quite good though.

Brazil could always do better but one of the top 3? Displacing which one of the RN/MN/Russian US or German navies depending on the era.

This is not a question of will its a question of massive industrial facilities that don't really exist outside Europe/US in this period or cash to buy ships for a foreign yard.

Brazil could build them up industry but it implies a politically and demographically very different Brazil making frankly irrational choices (uncompetitive industry vs profitable primary production). Better in this case is likely to mean a 4th/5th tier navy.

Peru - again why?

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by Vnix

at the time of WW1 they were theoretically cpable of have double the OTL navy. It was however decided that since we were neutral that we did not need it. The KNIL however was expanded quite a bit during those times in Indonesia, which was more advanced in tech then the Koninklijke Landmacht.

While the Dutch economy at the time was still somewhat backward, it was powerful enough to double the navy, this mostly since the navy was so damned small. Had WW1 not broken out the Dutch would have made several big warships, based on the pocket battleship idea, the keels were however never laid down because of WW1.

Doubling a small navy is not the same as having real naval power, though.

[euromellows]

If Belgium and Netherlands remained in some kind of political union their economic and political clout would be significant I would think. I imagine in those circumstances an enlarged navy would be a logical policy particularly to enhance their neutrality (Dutch East Indies is already a significant colony, I imagine they would also get something in Africa too).

I recall someone wrote an excellent timeline about this, something along the lines of 'We are not a road but a country!' Clever title.

[Vnix]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Doubling a small navy is not the same as having real naval power, though.

true but doubling the dutch minor navy would make them having significant power compared to OTL, they would not be at the German level yet and probably would not go the dreadnaught/batleship way, but it would allow for more.

Since most Dutch ships would remain in the DEI the rest of the world would not interpret it as a significant military increase. Also according to my housemate (who studies history and economics at the RUG (Rijks Universiteit Groningen) here in Holland, trippling the fleet could be done, but would be somewhat harder.

[Iori]

Originally Posted by Gannt the chartist

Any one could have but given the rate of change in the time period you are looking at either a fleet that becomes obsolete in 10 years (max) or a very sustained building programme over many decades which implies a clear national interest.

Except for very short, specific points in history, Naval ships and general technology does not advance anywhere near that fast; I'd point out that many ships in the modern world Navies are over 20 years old that won't be replaced for another decade or more.

[Super Missile]

Originally Posted by Shtudmuffin

So, I was wondering-could these nations:

-Belgium

-Netherlands

-Spain

-Austria-Hungary

-Brazil

-Peru

have built a larger navy than they possessed IOTL? If so, why didn't they attempt to increase the size of their naval forces? What might change those causes?

(The time period would be from about 1830 up to WWI)

Oh, and let me know if I'm missing any nations.

Belgium could have built a larger navy in the 19th century, they had a bigger industrial base and larger population than their northern neighbours the Dutch. There just wasn't any necessity for it. The Belgians didn't have an empire you'd need a large navy for, basically all resources spent on the navy could better be spent for the army for them. Unless something changes drastically (like them acquiring Indonesia or something) I don't see it happening.

The Netherlands could have built a larger one, easily. Of course they would never regain their 17th century naval dominance, but yeah, they could do it and were also a lot more naval orientated than Belgium. The problem is how to pull it off. Dutch military spending was always very low, so you'd need a mentality change for that, maybe a war threat with Britain or another large naval power could do the trick.

I think that for Spain to increase the navy is just to remain stable. It was such a backwards nation compared to the rest of Europe that the navy was always an afterthought. Let Spain develop slowly but steadily, and with the right leadership they could be much wealthier, allowing for more colonial adventures and a larger navy.

Changing Austria-Hungary's navy would also be difficult, after all they were always primarily a land empire and nothing would change that. I really can't find a reason for this.

For Brazil and Peru I gladly leave the talking to BC and other experts.

[Vnix]

prhaps if the UK were to forbid an invasion of Atjeh under threat of war, this would be important especially if the Brits would also force the Dutch to maintain the peace in the straits of malakka.

That would force the Dutch, henceforth called "we", to maintain a larger navy because of pirates operating out of Atjeh. We need to be forced out of our complacency regarding our neutrality. Allowing Prussia to gain more influence, is not going to cut it, I have been toying with that idea allot recently, since it would result in an increase of the Koninklijke Landmacht and not the Koninklijke Marine.


Allowing more islands in the west indies or perhaps somewhat more land on the mainland to be Dutch might force us to maintain a stronger navy also.

[Vizio]

If the Peru-Bolivian Confederation somehow survives in one piece I could see surpassing Chile in naval strength and potentially becoming the dominant naval power of Pacific Latin America.