Alternate Mundane NASA's

The post-Apollo space program was a Cold War cold shower on NASA. There were all sorts of wonderful plans of continuing Apollo and using the Apollo hardware as the ground floor for all these interesting things NASA had planned, but in the end Nixon cut out all of that and the only thing that did survive the cuts was the Space Shuttle, a LEO vehicle which limited NASA to LEO manned operations. That, as well as space probes, Hubble, the ISS, and so on are what NASA has and what it uses to explore space. It's not exactly all that interesting or inspiring.
In Alternate History, usually the parallel reality is used to make NASA more interesting and to make it do what it didn't do; letting Apollo continue, making Moon bases, a Venus flyby, Mars landings, permanent space stations, and so on. This thread, however, asks the opposite.

In what different ways could NASA be mundane and what alternate reality, mundane NASA's could there have been?
 
Completely cut out manned exploration and spaceflight, and instead devote all its resources to planetary probes? Not sure whether that would be politically feasible.
 

Archibald

Banned
Close enough from shuttle to ISS, but even more boring: Apollo capsules flying to uprated Skylab for four decades. Smaller station, much less able crew transportation system.

That would happen if no JFK and no Moon shot; that was the 1959 NASA plan, with a lunar flyby (not landing !) in the late 60's, and the landing pushed somewhere in the 70's (probably never happening in fact).

Nixon in 1960 should be able to do that ;)
 
Close enough from shuttle to ISS, but even more boring: Apollo capsules flying to uprated Skylab for four decades. Smaller station, much less able crew transportation system.

That would happen if no JFK and no Moon shot; that was the 1959 NASA plan, with a lunar flyby (not landing !) in the late 60's, and the landing pushed somewhere in the 70's (probably never happening in fact).

Nixon in 1960 should be able to do that ;)

Wouldn't that slower American program mean the Soviets could still have a shot at the Moon (given in the OTL that they didn't take US efforts seriously until too late, and by then it was too late given a very tight timetable and numerous failures), thereby pushing the US out of any laxity when it would become apparent the USSR was going to land a man on the Moon in the 70s or whenever it would be? A slow American program that eases along seems like it'd benefit the Soviets.
 
The post-Apollo space program was a Cold War cold shower on NASA. There were all sorts of wonderful plans of continuing Apollo and using the Apollo hardware as the ground floor for all these interesting things NASA had planned,...

In what different ways could NASA be mundane and what alternate reality, mundane NASA's could there have been?

1/ Go ahead with 'Post Apollo', longer and longer moon missions, building a base on the moon, in general squeezing the most out of the investment that had already been made in the Saturn/Apollo system.

This would actually have been dramatically cheaper then Skylab, let alone the Shuttle, but apparently the US political system makes it easier to get a lot of money for a new program than a little money for an old one. The same explanation is given for building new Interstates but not repairing old ones, or this is how I heard it.

2/ Keep the shuttle program down to a technology development program akin to the X planes until they have actually flight tested and proven all the new technologies involved, both alone and in the same craft.

Trying to make a new spacecraft with so many 'never done before' features work as a routine satelite launcher was asking for trouble. Not just that the shuttle's toilet broke down on every mission for the first decade, there's the ceramic heat tiles that broke off and destroyed one shuttle, the o-ring failure that got Challenger... build some small, cheap vehicles to run just enough to learn the engineering lesson and design the next X craft.

3/ Continue the unmanned probes, this should not even be questioned.

4/ Put some more effort into advanced propulsion systems. Ion drives, Plasma drives, Nerva, and Ramjet/Scramjets for whatever Earth to Orbit system comes out of the development program mentioned in point 2/. No, pushing chemical rockets for a bit more Specific Impulse - SSME - is NOT an advanced engine, it's like giving a 1950's V-8 downdraft Webbers and a port and polish, You will get more performance but the maintenance and reliability issues go up to. Better to just invest the resources in something with inherently better performance.

5/ Skylab or something like it is needed, again because all sorts of problems had been built into the design through ignorance. For example the system for getting water to reconstitute food or just drink used CO2 to move the water. No one in the design team realised that in zero g the gas would mix with the water, resulting in carbonated water that often exploded the plastic bags the food was in and caused the astronauts to fart constantly... lots of little things like that were discovered. But keep the lab cheap and easy to abandon once the lessons are learned.

In Summary: Keep the annual budget down through re-use of established systems while developing and proving systems that would allow more ambitious projects to be run in the future on a limited budget.
 
Bumping NORGCO's assertions

Dear Lord, you had me ROFLMAO with the CO2 issues on Skylab! Reality's better than any satire you could dream up!

You make a lot of sense re: the Space Shuttle. Neat idea, just asked to do too much too fast.
A lot of the post-Apollo TL's discuss the Air Force doing its own sat launches its way w/o even going to NASA OR NASA's becomes the R&D/space launch arm of the Air Force, partially for budget reasons and insulating it from folks like Proxmire. Nixon's term "nattering nabobs of negativism" fits Proxmire.

Keeping Apollo funded enough to get a lunar base by 1980- IMO technically feasible but you'd have to butterfly the whole Vietnam escalation 1965 on AND the OPEC oil embargo in 1973 that sent the US economy into several worlds of hurt it took a decade to sort out IOTL.

As to the advanced drive proposals- again technically dreamy but about three stages past what folks were ready to fund 1970-1980.
The big problem AIUI (PM Shevek, e of pi, and truthislife for details) is that those drives do great once boosted outside the earth's gravity well.
Boosting them into LEO so they can gently drift out still takes conventional boosters.
NERVA spooked the environmental movement- who weren't exactly thrilled with rocket exhaust does to the upper atmosphere just with kerlox, which were worlds better than hypergolics in every sense. It didn't matter- they wanted ZERO environmental impact.

IMO if you kept NERVA a black project under USAF aegis, nobody has to know, the bugs can be worked out and it's a viable man-rated system ca 1980. YMMV. If we could do stealth aircraft, why not NERVA space tugs?

You look at what ion drives are able to do NOW and think, if we'd been starting on that thirty years ago, we'd be three generations of spacecraft from now to where the Odyssey wouldn't be terribly ambitious vehicle, more like a refitted 757.

I agree with you those things could and should have been done.
 
IMO if you kept NERVA a black project under USAF aegis, nobody has to know, the bugs can be worked out and it's a viable man-rated system ca 1980. YMMV. If we could do stealth aircraft, why not NERVA space tugs?

It WAS revived as a black project. It was called TIMBERWIND, and it was studied in the late 80s as an upper stage for SDI satellite launchers. Their cover was blown in the early 90s by the FAS before they got to the bending metal stage - IIRC by that time all they'd done is tested some fuel elements in a research reactor and were looking into an atmospherically-contained engine test facility. Once the cover was blown it was shut down.
 
Some of the things you guys proposed don't sound mundane, they sound very interesting. Who wouldn't love moonbases and atomic rockets? It may be met with a bit of "meh" by the public in the context of their world, but it's a Hell of a lot more interesting than robot probes rolling around Mars for a week.
 
Some of the things you guys proposed don't sound mundane, they sound very interesting. Who wouldn't love moonbases and atomic rockets? It may be met with a bit of "meh" by the public in the context of their world, but it's a Hell of a lot more interesting than robot probes rolling around Mars for a week.

Also possibly cheaper than what actually happened. It is normal for Aerospace projects to spend most of the money that is ever going to be spent before the first sheet of aluminium is bashed into shape for the production model. Have a look at the F-35 programs spending to see this in action.

As of Nixon's swearing in in 1969 the big money involved in the Saturn/Apollo system had already been spent. The figure I have is that each new Apollo mission only cost $50,000, whereas Skylab cost $120 million and the Shuttle was $5 Billion to develop and $600 million a mission to run. Even if the Apollo mission figure needs another zero added it is still a proven system with growth potential and the big bills had ALREADY BEEN PAID.

Technology development for the aircraft industry is most of NASA's reason for existence, as it was for the NACA before it. Getting the technology right BEFORE sitting people on the beast and lighting the candle would be a return to normal.

By the way, everyone DOES know that the original plan with the first Shuttle mission was to send the crew up with some spare re-entry tiles, glue and a tile cutter right? NASA was concerned that the vibration would shake off some of the tiles - all individual in the original design - leaving the shuttle's skin exposed during re-entry leading to incineration. So the crew were to do an EVA to find and replace any missing tiles.

Eventually it was decided that the EVA - in pressure suits, with the sharp tiles and cutter etc - was a bigger risk than just trusting critical tiles to not fall off. Some actually did, but on the tail fin not the underside.

Ask me again why I think taking a bit more time to get the technology right first would have made more sense. No, I am not making this up. Yes, some of the older astronauts quit rather than fly the thing.
 
Some of the things you guys proposed don't sound mundane, they sound very interesting. Who wouldn't love moonbases and atomic rockets? It may be met with a bit of "meh" by the public in the context of their world, but it's a Hell of a lot more interesting than robot probes rolling around Mars for a week.

TIMBERWIND, at least, would never have flown and it's a bad idea even if it had. Aside from the safety issue, how can building a one-use nuclear rocket possibly be cost-effective? This stuff isn't cheap. Still, I've never been able to dig up much info on it, so maybe there's something I'm missing that makes it more sensible than it appears.

They did claim to be getting pretty amazing T/Ws for an NTR. I forget the exact number, but some paper studies in the 90s building off it claimed to be able to get 40:1 at the outer limit of their performance. I don't remember if that included crew shielding or not. (The followups were all about crewed Mars missions.) Still, paper's a long way from practice...
 
Honestly, TIMBERWIND would never have flown and it's a bad idea even if it had. Aside from the safety issue, how can building a one-use nuclear rocket possibly be cost-effective? This stuff isn't cheap. Still, I've never been able to dig up much info on it, so maybe there's something I'm missing that makes it more sensible than it appears.

They did claim to be getting pretty amazing T/Ws for an NTR. I forget the exact number, but some paper studies in the 90s building off it claimed to be able to get 40:1 at the outer limit of their performance. I don't remember if that included crew shielding or not. (The followups were all about crewed Mars missions.) Still, paper's a long way from practice...

The NASA studies I have seen for NERVA - TIMBERWIND is basically the same thing, right? - were all orbit to orbit tranfers and park the thing ready to re-fuel for the next mission. This included the manned Mars mission which was supposed to take place in 1980 or 1982. The details come from a NASA spokesbeing's presentation at Sydney University that was televised for 'Television Tutorial' in 1970 or so. The 'Post-Apollo' plans were covered in the same lecture series. NERVA Specific impulse was stated as 'achieved 600 seconds, plan for 850' Which at a time when the Saturn F-1 was getting 320 seconds was impressive. The SSME for the shuttle got 455, and that is supposed to be pushing the upper limits of the theoretically possible with a chemical booster.

I never heard of the one-shot use plan, or even a plan to light the reactor up until the booster was safely in a parking orbit. Do you have a link for that?
 
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The NASA studies I have seen for NERVA - TIMBERWIND is basically the same thing, right? - were all orbit to orbit tranfers and park the thing ready to re-fuel for the next mission. This included the manned Mars mission which was supposed to take place in 1980 or 1982. The details come from a NASA spokesbeing's presentation at Sydney University that was televised for 'Television Tutorial' in 1970 or so. The 'Post-Apollo' plans were covered in the same lecture series. NERVA Specific impulse was stated as 'achieved 600 seconds, plan for 850' Which at a time when the Saturn F-1 was getting 320 seconds was impressive. The SSME for the shuttle got 455, and that is supposed to be pushing the upper limits of the theoretically possible with a chemical booster.

I never heard of the one-shot use plan, or even a plan to light the reactor up until the booster was safely in a parking orbit. Do you have a link for that?

TIMBERWIND was an upper stage for a satellite launcher. Seriously. I have some pdfs on it but I don't really remember where I got them - I can try to dig them up later but I have to prep lesson plans right now. Here's a link to one version on astronautix - there were a couple of different incarnations.

I suspect that the TIMBERWIND researchers may have actually been using it as an excuse to advance NTR technology, with the ulterior motive of a Mars mission, and satellite launch was just an excuse to get money from SDI. But I don't have any evidence for that.
 
TIMBERWIND was an upper stage for a satellite launcher. Seriously. I have some pdfs on it but I don't really remember where I got them - I can try to dig them up later but I have to prep lesson plans right now. Here's a link to one version on astronautix - there were a couple of different incarnations.
Asnys, that's not one of the upper stage versions--that's the one that wanted to replace the Titan III core with a NTR. Because they decided Nitrogen Tetroxide/Hydrazine wasn't bad enough, I guess. That's no nuclear second stage, it's a nuclear first stage. :eek:

I suspect that the TIMBERWIND researchers may have actually been using it as an excuse to advance NTR technology, with the ulterior motive of a Mars mission, and satellite launch was just an excuse to get money from SDI. But I don't have any evidence for that.
That'd roughly match my impressions as well--it certainly makes little sense from a cost perspective, since most of the proposals weren't intended for recovery or reuse--sure, you're saving some fuel vs a fully chemical system, but you've got the cost of a multi-GW nuclear reactor every flight. Caution: physics ahead!

Rate form of energy equation for that calculation of power needs:

P=1/2 * (m_dot) * (v^2)

m_dot is mass flow, also equal to thrust/(Isp*g), from the definition of Isp. Thus, that first equation goes to this:

P=0.5*(Thrust)/(Isp*g)*(Isp*g)^2=0.5*(Thrust)*(Isp*9.81m/s^2)

For that Timberwind variant Asnys linked to, T= 2450 kN, and Isp is 780s. So that's a thrust power of 9.37 GW. Big! Even the one for the Centaur-replacement is 400 kN at 890s, for about 1.6 GW.
 
Asnys, that's not one of the upper stage versions--that's the one that wanted to replace the Titan III core with a NTR. Because they decided Nitrogen Tetroxide/Hydrazine wasn't bad enough, I guess. That's no nuclear second stage, it's a nuclear first stage. :eek:

Oh wow, I missed that. Good heavens. :eek:
 
Oh wow, I missed that. Good heavens. :eek:
I know! And the cost of $166 million/flight in 1990 dollars is like $240 million in now-dollars, so it's not like it's cheap, either. Sure, the payload is like 72 tons to orbit (according to a quick run of Silverbird to 185x185 at 28.5 from Canaveral), but that's nothing an ELV couldn't do--and I suspect their numbers would end up really conservative once the effects of nuclear regulations and stuff were all factored in.
 
I know! And the cost of $166 million/flight in 1990 dollars is like $240 million in now-dollars, so it's not like it's cheap, either. Sure, the payload is like 72 tons to orbit (according to a quick run of Silverbird to 185x185 at 28.5 from Canaveral), but that's nothing an ELV couldn't do--and I suspect their numbers would end up really conservative once the effects of nuclear regulations and stuff were all factored in.

Wait, so this could actually work at all? I always figured there was no way to make a solid-core NTR, even a LANTR, work as a first stage without some crazy hand-waving, due to the T/W issue.

As for nuclear regulations... That might actually be less of an issue than you'd think. This would presumably be run through the USAF, which gives them access to the DoD nuclear regulatory system rather than having to go through the NRC. I'm not entirely sure how that works, but I gather it's much less of a hurdle. Although that may just move it from "impossible" to "just barely possible" rather than "easy."

The bigger issue is going to be the throngs of protestors surrounding every launch... There's no way you can keep this secret. And even if regulations aren't a huge issue, it's still not going to be cheap.
 
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Wait, so this could actually work at all? I always figured there was no way to make a solid-core NTR, even a LANTR, work as a first stage without some crazy hand-waving, due to the T/W issue.
As long as the net vehicle T/W at liftoff is greater than 1, it'll fly (1.2 or so for margin). So 30 is enough to fly, as long as the rest of your vehicle doesn't mass too much--that core could actually lift off without the SRMs, just not with as much payload. (170,000 kg * 9.81 m/s * 1.2 is 2 MN, so the Timberwind core's 2.4 MN is enough to get off the ground, even with a little payload--actually, it might be capable of use as a ~30 ton payload SSTO, looking at the rocket equation.)
 
While a nuclear first stage would technically be doable, I still personally think it would be better as an upper stage, due to the T/W issues (having to lift less, and less atmospheric and gravitational drag to deal with).
 
Would the Saturn-INT 20 be possible as something to come in lieu of the Shuttle, or possibly alongside of it?

Alongside it? Probably not. Any Shuttle design was going to be two-stage-to-orbit, and, no matter what first stage is used (reusable flyback, S-IC, or the OTL solids) it would always make more sense to replace the Orbiter with a disposable cargo pod if you really need 80-100 tonnes-to-LEO in one launch, than to maintain the infrastructure for producing INT-20.

An analogue to Shuttle-C/Z is more likely. Those side-mount cargo launchers were designed to achieve heavy lift with minimal cost--and to use the existing launch facilities to the greatest possible extent. When SEI was proposed, that would have allowed NASA to have heavy-lift and operate the Shuttle Orbiters at the same time. You could conceivably make an analogous design with other first stages--a reusable flyback first stage could launch a disposable cargo pod from its back instead of the Orbiter. A Saturn-Shuttle could launch a Shuttle-C/Z instead of an orbiter.

Of course, the thread title asks for mundanity. Here's two mundane scenarios:

No Skylab-B, no Shuttle. Titan III-M launches carry Apollo CSMs and CM/LM-derived laboratory modules up into LEO for missions lasting anywhere from a week to a month, but nothing continuous. Eventually, an American Mir goes up, as an answer to the Russian original, with a crew of five, remaining up into the twenty-first century. Titan III-M is replaced with an *EELV, and the Apollo CSM is eventually made modular as the Soyuz is--parts are ripped out after landing to reduce the costs of the construction of the next capsule. While a station is up for a long time, the political support and funding for a proper lunar return or anything more ambitious never materialize. Essentially, America's space program more closely follows the historical path of Russia's after Apollo.

Scenario 2: John Glenn gets into orbit before Yuri Gagarin. Apollo and the early orbiting laboratory program go into service before the 1960s are out, and a lunar orbital mission is flown in 1970. However, the economic downturn of that decade means that no funding for a lunar lander ever materializes. The USAF eventually decides that crewed recon platforms are more trouble than they're worth, and abandons the project. As the space station program never delivers the scientific and technological 'spin-offs' it promised, or in any event not obviously (no miracle drugs, no semiconductor factories in LEO), eventually that program too comes to a halt. Even with reduced funding, the Jet Propulsion Lab lands unmanned spacecraft on Mars and the Moon, even performing unmanned sample return from the latter body. The scientific community appreciates these samples, but without a Jack Schmitt or Dave Scott up there showing what a properly-equipped geologist can accomplish, the case for human exploration does not resonate as well in this timeline as it does in ours. Fast-forward to 2012: human spaceflight to Earth Orbit is very limited, and attracts only cursory interest. The cause for human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit is championed by a very small minority--the *L5 and *Mars societies. Without the extra funding that came with the crewed programs, unmanned exploration of Luna and Mars has suffered--compared to the Jovian and Saturnian moons, they just aren't very interesting, and so the limited funds of planetary science are concentrated further out.
 
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