Germany Centralizes Early, Less War?

If the Hohenstaufens established a dynasty in the HRE, eventually separating from Italy, and manages to centralize Germany under a dominate, hereditary monarchy, would that mean a less violent Europe?
It seems that most of the wars in Central Europe during the Middle Ages were caused by political instability in the HRE resulting from the lack of a strong central authority to keep the nobles and their ambitions in line. The constant interference by the Pope in HRE affairs exacerbated this instability, pretty much leading to a bunch of independent entities competing with one another.

Assuming that there was some stable central authority in the HRE that had the same powers as the kings of France, would Europe have been as violent a place in the late middle ages/early modern era? Internally there would be little chance for nobles to start the sorts of wars against one another, while the sheer size and power of a centralize HRE would be hard to challenge externally (France, Britain, Poland, Hungary, or the Pope/Italy), so wouldn't really invite national wars. The problem could end up being the Emperor would seek to expand the Reich by war, with the East being the traditional focus of Germany from Barbarossa on.

But from 1400 on, what real war could be expected? The Ottomans would be a source of war in the Balkans and France might want to take advantage of German distraction, but Poland was too weak to really form a serious challenge to a unified HRE. Italy, even if unified, wasn't really able to offer much offensive trouble.

So would Europe be more peace and less warlike if a strong HRE/Germany emerged early and solidified national boundaries?

No one has anything to add?

I think what you'd get is less frequent, but possibly more bloody and lengthier wars. Similar to the Hundred Years' Wars. At least at first. France will still try and push to the Rhine, you'll still have some religious divisions that invite conflict, but I think Europe would be somewhat more peaceful long term.

You'd probably also have the development of german colonies overseas as you won't have a third to a half of the german population wiped out in sreas by the thirty years' war, leaving enough population pressure and enough people seeking a place to practice their faith unmolested, that the 13 british colonies would look substantially different.

A united HRE is comparable to early modern France, which is to say, strong but not unchallengeable.

A lot depends on what happens elsewhere, too.

It's very unlikely a Europe where the Staufen do unto the HRE what the Capets managed to do OTL to France is going to look "like OTL, but with a united Germany" in terms of what polities and events happen - such emperors are going to have a significant direct and indirect effect on their neighbors even before 1400.

Elfwine said:

A united HRE is comparable to early modern France, which is to say, strong but not unchallengeable.

A lot depends on what happens elsewhere, too.

It's very unlikely a Europe where the Staufen do unto the HRE what the Capets managed to do OTL to France is going to look "like OTL, but with a united Germany" in terms of what polities and events happen - such emperors are going to have a significant direct and indirect effect on their neighbors even before 1400.

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No, of course not. I was thinking the Italian portions of the Empire would be separated from Germany at some point to manage the administration better. Italy would be given to a son of a Hohenstaufen emperor and would be its own kingdom tied through family to the German part of the Empire.

Other than that it depends on how the various emperors decide to handle their neighbors; Hungary is more useful united as a bulwark in the Balkans, France is a nuisance that will likely be hampered by Hohenstaufen meddling, much like how France meddled in the HRE IOTL after it was centralized.
Poland would like see a lot of meddling, as the Ostsiedlung and Drang nach Osten are pushed. Denmark would like be vassalized at some point and Britain competed against navally. Still a HRE with all of the OTL territory minus Italy would be enormous and likely the most populated country in Europe by far. Especially if peace is maintained or war is held elsewhere, a centralized Germany would populate pretty rapidly and would have a massive carrying capacity.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...the_Holy_Roman_Empire_in_the_10th_century.png

wiking said:

No, of course not. I was thinking the Italian portions of the Empire would be separated from Germany at some point to manage the administration better. Italy would be given to a son of a Hohenstaufen emperor and would be its own kingdom tied through family to the German part of the Empire.

Other than that it depends on how the various emperors decide to handle their neighbors; Hungary is more useful united as a bulwark in the Balkans, France is a nuisance that will likely be hampered by Hohenstaufen meddling, much like how France meddled in the HRE IOTL after it was centralized.

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Sort of like how the Hapsburgs dispersed their family? That would be interesting, although I'm not sure why the emperors would see it as a good investment - yes, it means they don't have to try managing it, but on the other hand, they don't really benefit very much from it.

And a bulwark against what? With a POD around the time of Henry VI (whose survival would make it quite possible - he died at 32), there's no certainty that the Byzantines will collapse, so "a bulwark against the Turks that is west of Constantinople isn't needed (and meanwhile, even if the Byzantines revive they'll be an issue elsewhere).

France is going to be complicated. Any alt-HYW is going to see the Staufen very interested in what's going on, but not necessarily a Eurofed style "we divide France between us" alliance with the Plantagents.

Poland would like see a lot of meddling, as the Ostsiedlung and Drang nach Osten are pushed. Denmark would like be vassalized at some point and Britain competed against navally. Still a HRE with all of the OTL territory minus Italy would be enormous and likely the most populated country in Europe by far. Especially if peace is maintained or war is held elsewhere, a centralized Germany would populate pretty rapidly and would have a massive carrying capacity.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...the_Holy_Roman_Empire_in_the_10th_century.png

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I think a united HRE isn't necessarily going to be pushing hard against Poland - trying to vassalize it, sure, but not trying to Teutonize the East.

Population wise, we're looking at something that took a while to grow to match that land area - in 1600 both France and the Empire are approximately 20 million people (this refers to 15 million in "Germany" http://www.tacitus.nu/historical-atlas/population/germany.htm, and is where I got the 20 million for France from. 20 million for the empire is from here: http://faculty.history.wisc.edu/sommerville/351/holy roman empire.htm).

So its certainly a powerful state, but its not as overwhelming as the map makes it look - 1600-HRE land area is something like two and a half times modern metropolitan France.

Elfwine said:

Sort of like how the Hapsburgs dispersed their family? That would be interesting, although I'm not sure why the emperors would see it as a good investment - yes, it means they don't have to try managing it, but on the other hand, they don't really benefit very much from it.

And a bulwark against what? With a POD around the time of Henry VI (whose survival would make it quite possible - he died at 32), there's no certainty that the Byzantines will collapse, so "a bulwark against the Turks that is west of Constantinople isn't needed (and meanwhile, even if the Byzantines revive they'll be an issue elsewhere).

France is going to be complicated. Any alt-HYW is going to see the Staufen very interested in what's going on, but not necessarily a Eurofed style "we divide France between us" alliance with the Plantagents.



I think a united HRE isn't necessarily going to be pushing hard against Poland - trying to vassalize it, sure, but not trying to Teutonize the East.

Population wise, we're looking at something that took a while to grow to match that land area - in 1600 both France and the Empire are approximately 20 million people (this refers to 15 million in "Germany" http://www.tacitus.nu/historical-atlas/population/germany.htm, and is where I got the 20 million for France from. 20 million for the empire is from here: http://faculty.history.wisc.edu/sommerville/351/holy roman empire.htm).

So its certainly a powerful state, but its not as overwhelming as the map makes it look - 1600-HRE land area is something like two and a half times modern metropolitan France.

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That doesn't count Austria, the Czech lands, Slovenia, or the Netherlands and Belgium all of which were in the Reich in 1000 AD and were pretty populous by themselves. If anything the Reich was at minimum 30 million by 1600 if not more. None of this 'extra' territories would be outside the Reich if it centralized early, as they wouldn't develop separate political identities. Perhaps even Switzerland wouldn't have left the Reich either.

A Centralized Staufen HRE minus the lands in Italy will be a juggernaught. I see lots of Massive wars between the HRE trying to reclaim its italian lands and well.....pretty much everyone else trying to stop them. Basically a supercharged war of french containment.

How would a Pope view a large and powerful HRE, a big threat? Or something he could use againist the Turks?

With this early a departure, you may well end up saving Byzantium or even some of the Christian Kingdoms in the Holy land. If this happens, you may well see a lot of the military focus that went into wars in Europe being additional wars to reclaim Christian lands. If we assume that both Byzantium and Kingdom Jerusalem survive, then why not try to retake/take more land in the Middle East for the glory of the HRE? We could easily see HRE campaigns to try to retake Egypt for example. So if these type events happen, we do see a more peaceful Europe as in fewer wars fought in Europe. I am not sure we get fewer wars fought by Europeans.

If we assume the HRE still allows Byzantium and the Kingdom of Jerusalem fall, we likely see a long series of wars to try to drive the Ottomans back. Be they fought in the Balkans or Turkey proper. We also see the trade routes to the east cut and with the Dutch now having a lot more land power behind them, I think we see a very large HRE/Dutch empire. Lots of wars, but again, probably less likely in Europe.

I do see you idea of how Europe becomes less violent. If the HRE is satisfied with its Western Border, France will likely not challenge it. The HRE probably plays the balance of power game to try to keep England with possession in France. So until Spain or Portugal find the New World or routes to Asia by sea, the HRE will either be focus to the Slavic lands to the East or the SE towards the Ottomans. Since the value of the land decrease as one heads east, I can see the HRE becoming satisfied with its eastern border, which may be no where near OTL border. Then once the 1500 roles around, the energy can go into colonial wars.

And don't underestimate the importance of Spain not wasting all those resources in wars around the HRE. Spain will either have a lot more resources to build a lasting empire or more likely, we get Spain on the crusades part II. North Africa conquests come to mind, but I would no rule out attacking towards Jerusalem again.

wiking said:

That doesn't count Austria, the Czech lands, Slovenia, or the Netherlands and Belgium all of which were in the Reich in 1000 AD and were pretty populous by themselves. If anything the Reich was at minimum 30 million by 1600 if not more. None of this 'extra' territories would be outside the Reich if it centralized early, as they wouldn't develop separate political identities. Perhaps even Switzerland wouldn't have left the Reich either.

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The 20 million includes "Germany, Austria and Bohemia" - the United Provinces are about one and a half to two million at this point. Unclear about Italy, but if "Germany" is 15 million, and "the HRE" is 20 million. . .

So no, not 30+ million. Not in 1600.

And Switzerland probably doesn't, no.

Cecil: As noted, the population - if not land area - is comparable for most of the early modern period. So it wouldn't be on a larger scale than OTL wars by France seeking hegemony or others seeking to stop it.

tallthinkev: Judging by OTL, a threat.

Tbh I´m not that interested in any population figures since they are largely irrelevant in the timeperiod we are talking about. More of interest is the economic situation, since even divided the HRE areas was among the richest in Europe at the time. Go figure what will happen if they are united, the economic development will undoubtly be accellerated by a large amount. Granted we are unlikely to see "the lowlands wealth x entire HRE area" calculus but the emperor will regardless of that have massive resources at his disposal.

But if we need to get back to population numbers the OTL numbers are relatively useless in this calculation. A centralized state without internal borders will most likely cause iternal trade to boom and with it a fairly large population increase is likely. It isnt like the HRE is "full" at this time and a centralized state will cut down on the internal HRE squabbles benefitting the growth further. Though I think we need to establish just what size we are talking about here. The Italian lands is a bit ambigous to talk about. Do they include the burgundian areas for example? If not we are talking about a HRE that is quite a bit bigger than OTL not to mention the lowlands, though I suppose the county of Flanders could well end up in France.

All in all its a bit hard to make predictions without knowing the underlying events. Do the religious wars still occur? Are the PL on track for the commonwealth and do that follow the OTL path or do they centralize in response? What happens in the HYW with a strong neighbour to France who no doubt will be up for grabbing juicy bits when the possibility occurs etc.

Cecil said:

Tbh I´m not that interested in any population figures since they are largely irrelevant in the timeperiod we are talking about. More of interest is the economic situation, since even divided the HRE areas was among the richest in Europe at the time. Go figure what will happen if they are united, the economic development will undoubtly be accellerated by a large amount. Granted we are unlikely to see "the lowlands wealth x entire HRE area" calculus but the emperor will regardless of that have massive resources at his disposal.

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Yeah. Although most of those wealthy areas are either the low countries or Italy.

Still. At the very least, the Emperor commands resources comparable to the Sun King. And we know what that meant.

But if we need to get back to population numbers the OTL numbers are relatively useless in this calculation. A centralized state without internal borders will most likely cause iternal trade to boom and with it a fairly large population increase is likely. It isnt like the HRE is "full" at this time and a centralized state will cut down on the internal HRE squabbles benefitting the growth further. Though I think we need to establish just what size we are talking about here. The Italian lands is a bit ambigous to talk about. Do they include the burgundian areas for example? If not we are talking about a HRE that is quite a bit bigger than OTL not to mention the lowlands, though I suppose the county of Flanders could well end up in France.

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I don't think a large population increase is that likely - OTL the HRE is nominally one polity in this period (up to 1600ish), so making it centralized isn't going to automatically change things. But the 1600-1800 period is going to be so different OTL figures are only vaguely useful.

But the conditions that spur population growth aren't really that impacted by how much authority the Emperor has.

All in all its a bit hard to make predictions without knowing the underlying events. Do the religious wars still occur? Are the PL on track for the commonwealth and do that follow the OTL path or do they centralize in response? What happens in the HYW with a strong neighbour to France who no doubt will be up for grabbing juicy bits when the possibility occurs etc.

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Yeah. My timeline - where France crumbles in the late 13th century and *Charles IV takes advantage of that to dissolve the kingdom (taking advantage of a succession crisis to claim that as the heir of Charlemagne he has the authority to do so) - is considerably different than one where both France and the HRE progress towards unification.