No Bolshevik takeover what happens to Russia
- Thread starter Derek Jackson
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I am disapointed not to have more comments, My impression is that Lenin was able to take power in olt because of the weakness of the state which is why a failed state seemed possible, any other thoughts?
A failed state - yes, but by 1922 a leftish dictatorship would have arisen from the Russian power vacuum.
redlightning
Banned
I can see the right sick of the influences from the Czarist government, but they are weaker than the leftist supporters of the communists. It'll probably be a military component from the failed Red Army that reunites that country under a military dictatorship that is leftist.
What counts as "failed"?
China in the interwar years had an internationally recognised government which generally controlled most of the country at any given moment, but there were huge chunks where its authority was weak or nonexistent. Could Russia go that way?
China in the interwar years had an internationally recognised government which generally controlled most of the country at any given moment, but there were huge chunks where its authority was weak or nonexistent. Could Russia go that way?
Assuming no Red October not a White Victory in the RCW. Then the Provisional Government survives in some form.
The Duma however would probably be highly corrupt and divisive, and I can see the military and nobility trying to continue their dominance of playing a big role in the government, a la Weimar Germany, with the ever-present threat of a coup if things begin to get out of hand in their eyes.
Speaking of coups some nationalities might form de-facto or de-jure independent states, along with a fair share of army strongmen/warloads controlling provinces as their own private fiefdoms.
The central goverment (if it could be called such) would most likely be terribly unstable and corrupt, to the degree of Chanig-Kai-Shek's China. If we are talking post-WWI Soviet borders (or less). In addition you are going to see irredentism crop up big time, forming the core of some sort of fascist movement based on the principles of "Autocracy, Orthodoxy, and Nationalism" like the Mladorossi movement. Similar to a fusion of the Iron Guard Mussolini's fascists, they would most likely be extremely xenophobic, outright reactionary, and extol some sort of corporatist platform (Mladorossi's slogan was "Tsar and the Soviets"). They'll make things even less pretty, along with the extreme Leftists & Bolsheviks who'd still be active...
The Duma however would probably be highly corrupt and divisive, and I can see the military and nobility trying to continue their dominance of playing a big role in the government, a la Weimar Germany, with the ever-present threat of a coup if things begin to get out of hand in their eyes.
Speaking of coups some nationalities might form de-facto or de-jure independent states, along with a fair share of army strongmen/warloads controlling provinces as their own private fiefdoms.
The central goverment (if it could be called such) would most likely be terribly unstable and corrupt, to the degree of Chanig-Kai-Shek's China. If we are talking post-WWI Soviet borders (or less). In addition you are going to see irredentism crop up big time, forming the core of some sort of fascist movement based on the principles of "Autocracy, Orthodoxy, and Nationalism" like the Mladorossi movement. Similar to a fusion of the Iron Guard Mussolini's fascists, they would most likely be extremely xenophobic, outright reactionary, and extol some sort of corporatist platform (Mladorossi's slogan was "Tsar and the Soviets"). They'll make things even less pretty, along with the extreme Leftists & Bolsheviks who'd still be active...
The question isnt answerable until we know what prevented it or replaced the bolsheviks.
Continued chaos and civil war is certainly a possibility. But so are some sort of white dictatorship, low probability, a semistable constitutional monarchy, middling probability, a semistable republic, ditto, both of these possibly being based off kerenskys provisional government, or something like it, a stable version of either of those, a bit less likely, a dictatorship by the Mensheviks, also a middling probability.
Some sort of at least semistable government is, imo, more likely than a country still wracked by civil war.
Continued chaos and civil war is certainly a possibility. But so are some sort of white dictatorship, low probability, a semistable constitutional monarchy, middling probability, a semistable republic, ditto, both of these possibly being based off kerenskys provisional government, or something like it, a stable version of either of those, a bit less likely, a dictatorship by the Mensheviks, also a middling probability.
Some sort of at least semistable government is, imo, more likely than a country still wracked by civil war.
The problem is that the Whites can't win, they don't have enough support among the populace to ever be tolerated anymore. So, what's more likely, is that the Soviets continue to control areas, and we just get a more varied radical left throughout Russia, with a corrupt government overseeing things.