The Vatican Republic

Can someone make up a plausible timeline or POD for a Vatican Republic being today an independent state covering at least part of Italy? I imagine it as a catholic version of Iran, with an elect president but with the actual power in ayat... Papal hands . Although you can set up its government as you wish.
Kudos if the POD is post-1900.

Dr. Strangelove said:

Can someone make up a plausible timeline or POD for a Vatican Republic being today an independent state covering at least part of Italy? I imagine it as a catholic version of Iran, with an elect president but with the actual power in ayat... Papal hands . Although you can set up its government as you wish.
Kudos if the POD is post-1900.

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If Italy ends up on the losing side of both World Wars, or even just WWII, not too different from OTL, but the Catholic Church very actively and obviously opposes the government that fights until the bitter end, when the victorious Allies arrive, they decide to restore the Papal State (of sorts) under the name of Vatican Republic, along with dismembering Italy into several different states. Since the Papacy supported the Allies even at risk to itself, the Pope is left to do as he pleases, which results in him getting civil government established that is technically independent, but practically controlled by the Church.

Perhaps if Italy loses WWI and the great depression is even worse, many would turn to the church. Eventually, when Mussolini was muscling into power, the church opposes him. After the allies invade, they set the Vatican up as one of three states, North Italy, Vatican Republic, And Naples (could use better names)

Are we talking a surviving Papal States TL here or a republic on the Mons Vaticanus, the hill from which the Vatican takes its name?

A third alternative TL might diverge from 1800 - the year in which the Papal States, which had been abolished by Napoleon and replaced by a Roman Republic - or 1849, when the Papal States were again replaced by a Roman Republic. Seeing as republican sentiments were not necessarily widespread among the people who lived in this region, and the Catholic Church was still held in wide regard, it is possible that, if either Roman Republic had survived, the Pope would play a role as a powerbroker or perhaps even run for office. In this case, the Roman Republic might become something like Bulgaria, where the former ruling family still has a lot of power.

If the CP had won WW1, it is quite likely that A-H would have resurrected the Papal States (although it is quite likely that they would have not been a republic).
After WW2 it is not possible: the USA need the church to back the Christian Democrats against the communists, and imposing the Papal States once again it would have been the best way to have the rest of Italy going red (I would expect that a resurrection of the Papal states would have been quite controversial and unpopular in the USA too).
The first Roman Republic (after the french revolution) might have lasted only if the French revolutionaires had remained "pure". No Girondins, no Directorate, Napoleon accepting to be just a military commander for the Republique (the last is clearly ASB ).
The second Roman republic had also no chances, unless the 1848 revolution had been truly successful. I would like to live in a TL where this had happened, I am sure it would be much better than OTL. OTOH, such a republic would have clearly enforced a strict separation between state and church: even if the pope had remained in Rome (very few chances of that), he would have been restricted from playing a political role.
Maybe a (much) better Pio IX, truly committed to liberal ideas and willing to step off from the throne of temporal power. Very very ASBish: even if the man had been willing to consider it, the church structure would not have accepted it. At best, it would have resulted in a catholic schism.