Disunited Germany

oshron

oshron

hey, all. one thing that i've wondered about for a while is what the area of OTL Germany would look like if the preceding German states never unified. perhaps Bismarck is never born and no one else rises up to take his place ITTL

from that point onward, what could the world look like with a disunited Germany? and would the German states remain separate states through to the OTL present-day? and if not, when would be the most likely time for them to unify?
 

eliphas8

oshron said:
hey, all. one thing that i've wondered about for a while is what the area of OTL Germany would look like if the preceding German states never unified. perhaps Bismarck is never born and no one else rises up to take his place ITTL

from that point onward, what could the world look like with a disunited Germany? and would the German states remain separate states through to the OTL present-day? and if not, when would be the most likely time for them to unify?
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They would almost definately unify eventually, pan-germanism was one of the biggest goals of German liberals and in a lot of ways Bismark did it so that Germany could be set up conservatively rather than as a liberal state.
 

Jan Olbracht

German states can remain disunited if France is strong and PLC survives in good shape-those countries would see German unification as mortal danger and would never allow it. Also Austria may block unification-Habsburgs were focused on many regions, especially Balkans and Italy, being unable to unite Germans on their own they could be strong enough to prevent other states to do it.
 

Elfwine

The question is, what are they going to do to stop it?

Also, Austria's rulers are HRE emperors (as long as there was a HRE, but if we're mentioning PODs keeping the PL Commonwealth strong we should mention the HRE), they'd welcome a more united Germany under their control.
 
oshron

oshron

it just so happens that a strong France, Poland-Lithuania, and Austria-Hungary are part of what i was personally imagining as part of this disunited Germany TL :D
 

Jan Olbracht

Elfwine said:
The question is, what are they going to do to stop it?
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They are going to behave like Austrians in Italy in OTL, but at least Italy finally found ally in person of Napoleon III, German states sandwiched between PLC and strong France, both interested in keeping Germany disunited are in far worse situation. It doesn't really matter whether German people want unification-if there is strong force interested in preventing it, unification would not happen. By comparision-the fact that 19th century Poles wanted independence was not enough to gain it as long as Russia, Ausrtria and Prussia were strong enough to prevent it.
 

The Ubbergeek

Well, is it possible that a very few strong states with local identities emergeate, but do not unite ALL for a while, if not ever? Or maybe torn in two or three from Austro-Hungria...
 

Jan Olbracht

Most likely most of Germany would end divided between 5-6 medium sized states-Saxony, Hannover, Bavaria, Brandenburg etc. with few survived micro-states. Those states would be not strong enough to absorb the rest, but strong enough to stop others from absorbing them. Austrians would be unable to unite Germany as long as they have Hungary, and they would support unification only if it's led by Vienna, otherwise they would be against unification.
 

The Ubbergeek

Svetonius21 said:
Most likely most of Germany would end divided between 5-6 medium sized states-Saxony, Hannover, Bavaria, Brandenburg etc. with few survived micro-states. Those states would be not strong enough to absorb the rest, but strong enough to stop others from absorbing them. Austrians would be unable to unite Germany as long as they have Hungary, and they would support unification only if it's led by Vienna, otherwise they would be against unification.
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I believe the key would-may be also the rise of a local identity, like what happened to swiss germans, austrians... maybe a 'prussia', a west side... dialectal cleaves too?
 

Whanztastic

I agree with the possibility of multiple "Germanys", even with a POD as late as say the Austro-Prussian War. United Germany is not an inevitability. I am sure man Pan-Scandinavians felt that such a union was a guarantee of the historical dialectic as much as the Pan-Germanics did.

If Bismark's gamble fails, the German Confederation would be in tatters, Prussia is disgraced and, honestly, Austria is no longer in a position to be the dominant leader of the German states, what with their extensive non-German holdings, although they could still be very influential.

What is required is a stable condition to develop between several smaller German states, a consolidation of the messy Kleinstaaterei, which results in the reforming of nationalist zeal away from "Pan-Germanism" into Saxon Nationalism, etc. If the entrenched conservative powers can successfully develop these new national identities, while successfully limiting influence from the other kingdoms/realms, then 'Germany' can develop without political union.

I always imagine a POD that involves France getting involved against Prussian intervention, perhaps the Hanoverian Army successfully uniting with their southern allies combined with an alt-Königgrätz allows a window for France to move. The war is more damaging to Germany and the ability of the smaller powers proves impotent in the light of modern, industrial warfare. The Great Powers, as was custom, negotiate for a restructuring. France, Austria, UK and Russia are all involved.

I personally enjoy consolidation into several Kingdoms, with a second German Mediatisation occurring. We see the German region split into several camps and Prussia is silenced before it causes more problems.

Aligned with Austria, Saxony reclaims Prussian Saxony and the minor powers of the Saxon region. Baden is elevated into a Kingdom and a "Southern German Confederation" (yes a cliche) is formed with Württemberg and Bavaria. Saxony is firmly in Austria's camp but the SGC is more independent, wavering between France, Austria and their own causes.

France's involvement sees the elevation of West Prussia, Hesse and and the Rhine provinces reconstituted as the Kingdom of Westfalen. The UK is satisfied because a Prince with sufficient British ties (there are several to choose from but I welcome suggestions) is elevated. Luxembourg's fate is up for discussion. Although supposedly a satellite of France's, Westfalen will inevitably exert independence, being such a potent industrial power. Westfalen the the SGC are natural allies, eventual forming their own block against Austrian and French influences.

The Kingdom of Hanover remains and gains Oldenburg and Holstein, while Schleswig is returned to Denmark. The fate of the Mecklenburgs hangs in the balance, but I prefer seeing them consolidated into Hanover as punishment for siding with Prussia. Hanover is viewed as a third Low Country, in a geopolitical sense, and Great Britain is satisfied having friendly states lining the North Sea.

The Prussian Question remains. Their only friend in the world is Russia, and castrated as they are by the removal of the Rhineland, is more of a satellite than ally now. Austria will most likely demand and receive Silesia, but it could possibly be divided between Austria and Saxony, maybe Russia getting a slice.

Bismark and, probably under pressure for allowing such scheming, Wilhelm I are both forced out of power. Ideally, the Junkers are shamed, Frederick III rules from 1866 - 1888 (longer depending on butterflies, such as getting kicked off his horse during the war and lands hard on his back, giving up smoking due to the injury to his wind) bringing in many reforms, and flipping from Russia's authoritarian sphere to the UK's. Maybe, if we really want a reform-wank, Prince Wilhelm succumbs to childhood illness and we see a King Henry. :p

The situation is tense but stable. None of the remaining Germanies have the ability to unite with the others. Each is stable enough to develop and nurture their separate identities. Economic spheres and unions may develop but the once potent Pan-Germanism that fed the revolutionary flames of 1848 has been extinguished by the blood spilled in 1866-1867.


.... just my two cents.
 
kasumigenx

kasumigenx

Whanztastic said:
I agree with the possibility of multiple "Germanys", even with a POD as late as say the Austro-Prussian War. United Germany is not an inevitability. I am sure man Pan-Scandinavians felt that such a union was a guarantee of the historical dialectic as much as the Pan-Germanics did.

If Bismark's gamble fails, the German Confederation would be in tatters, Prussia is disgraced and, honestly, Austria is no longer in a position to be the dominant leader of the German states, what with their extensive non-German holdings, although they could still be very influential.

What is required is a stable condition to develop between several smaller German states, a consolidation of the messy Kleinstaaterei, which results in the reforming of nationalist zeal away from "Pan-Germanism" into Saxon Nationalism, etc. If the entrenched conservative powers can successfully develop these new national identities, while successfully limiting influence from the other kingdoms/realms, then 'Germany' can develop without political union.

I always imagine a POD that involves France getting involved against Prussian intervention, perhaps the Hanoverian Army successfully uniting with their southern allies combined with an alt-Königgrätz allows a window for France to move. The war is more damaging to Germany and the ability of the smaller powers proves impotent in the light of modern, industrial warfare. The Great Powers, as was custom, negotiate for a restructuring. France, Austria, UK and Russia are all involved.

I personally enjoy consolidation into several Kingdoms, with a second German Mediatisation occurring. We see the German region split into several camps and Prussia is silenced before it causes more problems.

Aligned with Austria, Saxony reclaims Prussian Saxony and the minor powers of the Saxon region. Baden is elevated into a Kingdom and a "Southern German Confederation" (yes a cliche) is formed with Württemberg and Bavaria. Saxony is firmly in Austria's camp but the SGC is more independent, wavering between France, Austria and their own causes.

France's involvement sees the elevation of West Prussia, Hesse and and the Rhine provinces reconstituted as the Kingdom of Westfalen. The UK is satisfied because a Prince with sufficient British ties (there are several to choose from but I welcome suggestions) is elevated. Luxembourg's fate is up for discussion. Although supposedly a satellite of France's, Westfalen will inevitably exert independence, being such a potent industrial power. Westfalen the the SGC are natural allies, eventual forming their own block against Austrian and French influences.

The Kingdom of Hanover remains and gains Oldenburg and Holstein, while Schleswig is returned to Denmark. The fate of the Mecklenburgs hangs in the balance, but I prefer seeing them consolidated into Hanover as punishment for siding with Prussia. Hanover is viewed as a third Low Country, in a geopolitical sense, and Great Britain is satisfied having friendly states lining the North Sea.

The Prussian Question remains. Their only friend in the world is Russia, and castrated as they are by the removal of the Rhineland, is more of a satellite than ally now. Austria will most likely demand and receive Silesia, but it could possibly be divided between Austria and Saxony, maybe Russia getting a slice.

Bismark and, probably under pressure for allowing such scheming, Wilhelm I are both forced out of power. Ideally, the Junkers are shamed, Frederick III rules from 1866 - 1888 (longer depending on butterflies, such as getting kicked off his horse during the war and lands hard on his back, giving up smoking due to the injury to his wind) bringing in many reforms, and flipping from Russia's authoritarian sphere to the UK's. Maybe, if we really want a reform-wank, Prince Wilhelm succumbs to childhood illness and we see a King Henry. :p

The situation is tense but stable. None of the remaining Germanies have the ability to unite with the others. Each is stable enough to develop and nurture their separate identities. Economic spheres and unions may develop but the once potent Pan-Germanism that fed the revolutionary flames of 1848 has been extinguished by the blood spilled in 1866-1867.


.... just my two cents.
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I think Austria receiving Congress Poland would help that... they could give Poles living in Congress Poland and Galicia special treatment which would make Poles in the Prussian Silesia and Posen more reason to rebel against the Prussia in fact in later 19th century the Prussians made a Germanization campaign against the Polish minority in Breslau/Wroclaw...I think after that we would have the Mittel Europa project complete...
 

Whanztastic

kasumigenx said:
I think Austria receiving Congress Poland would help that... they could give Poles living in Congress Poland and Galicia special treatment which would make Poles in the Prussian Silesia and Posen more reason to rebel against the Prussia in fact in later 19th century the Prussians made a Germanization campaign against the Polish minority in Breslau/Wroclaw...I think after that we would have the Mittel Europa project complete...
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I'm not sure how Austria could do that without war with Russia, which in 1860s they would probably loose after battling the Prussians as well. Also, I think Congress Poland is simply too large a territory and new peoples to be absorbed successfully by Austria, especially with Russian revenge being a certain guarantee.

Edit: This makes me think that Posen would probably be tacked onto Congress Poland, which is probably worse for the Russians in the long term.
 
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kasumigenx

kasumigenx

Whanztastic said:
I'm not sure how Austria could do that without war with Russia, which in 1860s they would probably loose after battling the Prussians as well. Also, I think Congress Poland is simply too large a territory and new peoples to be absorbed successfully by Austria, especially with Russian revenge being a certain guarantee.

Edit: This makes me think that Posen would probably be tacked onto Congress Poland, which is probably worse for the Russians in the long term.
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Actually, Russia was considering to give up Congress Poland to Austria, I think in reverse Austria could also give up Galicia to Russia, if Russia has a war with Prussia later on Silesia and Posen would be taken by Russia and Cieszyn would be the only place where in Poles would have some freedom but that would be worse for Russia in the long term.
 
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anotherlurker

anotherlurker

Svetonius21 said:
By comparision-the fact that 19th century Poles wanted independence was not enough to gain it as long as Russia, Ausrtria and Prussia were strong enough to prevent it.
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imo, it has more to do with the fact that austria, russia and prussia actually controlled the country fomerly known as poland and had their armies there.

meanwhile the various german states and statelets enjoyed varying form of independance. and frankly said i can not see something like a lippe-detmoldian national identity ever developing.
 

Jan Olbracht

anotherlurker said:
imo, it has more to do with the fact that austria, russia and prussia actually controlled the country fomerly known as poland and had their armies there.

meanwhile the various german states and statelets enjoyed varying form of independance. and frankly said i can not see something like a lippe-detmoldian national identity ever developing.
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Maybe Lippe-Detmolians would not emerge (but some microstates could develop national identity-look at Luxemburg or Liechtenstein) but Saxons or Bavarians are more likely, it's why I've said that better solution to keep Germany disunited is 5-7 medium sized countries instead of 400, also about independence of german states-in situation I described with strong France and PLC it would be "controlled independence", something simillar to status of soviet puppet states after ww2. France, PLC and Austria would be guarantors of German monarchs rule ( just like USSR was guarantor of communist parties rule in Eastern Europe) and would intervene if "old order" is threatened by revolutionaries, wanting unification.
 

Whanztastic

Svetonius21 said:
Maybe Lippe-Detmolians would not emerge (but some microstates could develop national identity-look at Luxemburg or Liechtenstein) but Saxons or Bavarians are more likely, it's why I've said that better solution to keep Germany disunited is 5-7 medium sized countries instead of 400, also about independence of german states-in situation I described with strong France and PLC it would be "controlled independence", something simillar to status of soviet puppet states after ww2. France, PLC and Austria would be guarantors of German monarchs rule ( just like USSR was guarantor of communist parties rule in Eastern Europe) and would intervene if "old order" is threatened by revolutionaries, wanting unification.
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This is the most likely non-unification scenario in my opinion, of course this could turn into a "Balkans on the Elbe" scenario. Pardon my ignorance, but what does PLC stand for?
 
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