Challenge: Have Bob Dole Win The 1996 President Election...

The 1996 US Presidential Election was perhaps one of the most predictable ones in history. You had a sexy charismatic saxophone playing ladies man(not to mention African Americans thought of him as one of their own) taking on a boring old out of touch coot.

In this alternate timeline, can you find a way to get the public to favor Dole, even if its to derail Clinton's popularity?

I'd love to see some responses.

Have a woman come forward and say bill Clinton fathered her child. Have her be 18. Dna confirms it. Hillary divorces. Throw in a challenge from the left vianthe green party or independant who can get a few votes. Have perot not run

Have Monica Lewinsky's "relationship" be revealed, stained dress and all. It started up in Fall of 95, so plenty of time for it to develop and then get revealed during the Campaign season.

If revealed, with sufficient corroboration, at the right time, no way Clinton wins re-election.

Basically do Blairwitch's Monica's Baby TL, but don't have Bob Dole fall down a flight of stairs.

As a matter of fact, I'd like to see that when he's done with his current TL.

Clinton dies. To much sex, drugs & rock n roll. (not the sex from Hillary thought)

I'm not even sure all that screwing around would tarnish his popularity sufficiently. If Bob Dole is going to win, then have Clinton simply not run. I don't think Gore was all that popular (as 2000 proved).

Alternately, you could have Clinton fail to recover from the nadir of his unpopularity in 1994, at least to the extent he did. Now this would essentially require Newt Gingrich not being Newt Gingrich, no government shutdown etc. If the impression that dominated political discussions in early 1995 continues into 1996, that is Clinton's already a lame duck and Gingrich/whoever the leader of the House happens to be, is the one who is really controlling government policy, if the impression of Clinton being incredibly incompetent continues, Dole might have a genuine shot. Given the economy, not a great one, but if Clinton wades through 1995 and 1996 looking less like a President and more like a washed up has-been, we might be looking at President Dole come 1997.

It's worth noting that after the 1994 election Clinton was all but written off as a one term President in the eyes of the pundit-class, by 1996 his reelection was essentially a sure thing. Now to an extent, that's the economy's effect, but there are other reasons why Clinton was able to recover his popularity in 1995, and if you want Dole to have a chance, you probably have to sabotage the other factors to the greatest possible extent.

You need Newt Gingrich not to be Newt Gingrich.

Or you could contrive things so the election goes to the house...

Glass Onion said:

Alternately, you could have Clinton fail to recover from the nadir of his unpopularity in 1994, at least to the extent he did. Now this would essentially require Newt Gingrich not being Newt Gingrich, no government shutdown etc. If the impression that dominated political discussions in early 1995 continues into 1996, that is Clinton's already a lame duck and Gingrich/whoever the leader of the House happens to be, is the one who is really controlling government policy, if the impression of Clinton being incredibly incompetent continues, Dole might have a genuine shot. Given the economy, not a great one, but if Clinton wades through 1995 and 1996 looking less like a President and more like a washed up has-been, we might be looking at President Dole come 1997.

It's worth noting that after the 1994 election Clinton was all but written off as a one term President in the eyes of the pundit-class, by 1996 his reelection was essentially a sure thing. Now to an extent, that's the economy's effect, but there are other reasons why Clinton was able to recover his popularity in 1995, and if you want Dole to have a chance, you probably have to sabotage the other factors to the greatest possible extent.

You need Newt Gingrich not to be Newt Gingrich.

Or you could contrive things so the election goes to the house...

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Or you could have John Tower be successfully confirmed as Secretary of Defense under George H.W. Bush. I'd imagine Speaker of the House Dick Cheney would be a lot more competent.

High Plains Drifter said:

Have Monica Lewinsky's "relationship" be revealed, stained dress and all. It started up in Fall of 95, so plenty of time for it to develop and then get revealed during the Campaign season.

If revealed, with sufficient corroboration, at the right time, no way Clinton wins re-election.

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I think if anything, that would make him MORE popular.

Soundgarden said:

I think if anything, that would make him MORE popular.

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Agree. Most people do not react with horror at the thought of a man in office having an affair. Despite what the networks say, and of course all the equally guilty opposition party leaders.

Now, a woman successfully accused of the same blunder faces a far more difficult road.

Doesn't matter though. Dole would not have beaten anybody but another Republican, he simply came across as to angry, and too unable to step out of the 1950's into the present. He reminded me of Mondale, never had a chance but nominated because somebody had to run.

Soundgarden said:

I think if anything, that would make him MORE popular.

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I think the Monica thing would hurt Clinton if it didn't lead to outright impeachment. After all, if I remember things correctly, Clinton's popularity did take a small hit when the affair was initially revealed, but Republican overreach ended up making him more popular than he had been before. If there's an affair, and no impeachment, and it's revealed late in the game, I'd be surprised if Clinton didn't take a slight hit from it. Now if it's revealed early enough, Clinton will have had enough time to apologize for the affair, and there's a chance it will just be another punchline that doesn't impact things. But if it's revealed in October, and Clinton tries to deny that it happened, and doesn't apologize for it in time, that situation might be problematic. Clinton was a master at talking his way out of things, but if he doesn't have enough time he might not be able to recover his former popularity. Now I don't think this in and of itself would doom Clinton. He'd probably still win.

I still say that the key to this isn't 1996, it's 1995. You need Clinton not to regain his popularity, you need the public to view Clinton as an incredibly incompetent has been in 1996, which is how he was viewed in January 1995. If the election had been held then, Bob Dole probably would have won. So you somehow have to keep the public on Gingrich's side. But considering what Gingrich is like, that's hard.