WI: John Connally became Vice-President in 1973 instead of Gerald Ford?

Nixon decides to appoint John Connally to replace Vice-President Spiro 'Ted" Agnew, who resigned in October of 1973, under the terms of the 25th Amendment. Connally, an LBJ protege, had served as JFK's Secretary of the Navy (1961-62), as Governor of Texas (1963-69) during which time he was wounded in the assassination of JFK, and as Nixon's Treasury Secretary (1969-1972). Connally overcomes liberal Democratic opposition in both houses of Congress to be confirmed as Vice-President in late 1973. What happens next?

He loses, badly, to Jimmy Carter (or hopefully someone else, given the POD) in 1976. Connally was under fire for illegal activities while Treasury Secretary (IIRC) and that's why he didn't get promoted to Vice President. If he manages to get confirmed in spite of that, he's not going to be running the country on January 20, 1977. Then again, if that's all buried, he could plausibly run for President in '76, but I would strongly bet against him winning. 1976 was a very, very Democratic year for good reason.

TNF said:

He loses, badly, to Jimmy Carter (or hopefully someone else, given the POD) in 1976. Connally was under fire for illegal activities while Treasury Secretary (IIRC) and that's why he didn't get promoted to Vice President. If he manages to get confirmed in spite of that, he's not going to be running the country on January 20, 1977. Then again, if that's all buried, he could plausibly run for President in '76, but I would strongly bet against him winning. 1976 was a very, very Democratic year for good reason.

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Still, Carter just barely squeaked by over Ford in 1976 (297-241 EVs and 50.08%-48.02% in the popular vote). If Connally, a conservative Democrat turned Republican, was president, then Texas (which Carter won in OTL) and a few other southern states might have gone the other way. Although Ford's Michigan would have likely gone Democratic.

This assumes that Connally even gets the nomination. Assuming he gets a head of steam and manages to get the backing required for a presidential run, he'll primaried by Reagan just like Ford was IOTL. Reagan was almost successful against Ford, who wasn't tarnished by actually being a part of the Nixon administration from the beginning. Connally is going to have that baggage, having served in the cabinet, and also the fact that he's a Johnny-come-lately to the Republican Party. Well, more-so than Reagan who's going to be Mr. Republican.

My prediction is that Reagan defeats a sitting President for his party's nomination for the first time in over a century and faces off against Carter (or whomever) in the fall. Without the baggage of Nixon on his shoulders personally, Reagan wages an outsider campaign that makes for a close and interesting election.

JoeinOhio said:

Still, Carter just barely squeaked by over Ford in 1976 (297-241 EVs and 50.08%-48.02% in the popular vote). If Connally, a conservative Democrat turned Republican, was president, then Texas (which Carter won in OTL) and a few other southern states might have gone the other way. Although Ford's Michigan would have likely gone Democratic.

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Carter only barely squeaked out a win because he pissed a way a twenty point lead from the Convention to the general. If somebody else gets that nomination, or if Carter isn't a total numbnuts when it comes to campaigning (which might take an even bigger POD than Connally becoming VP), any Democrat would win a landslide in 1976.

We also assume that Connally gets confirmed which is iffy at best.

The reason Carter got the nomination was because of the Post-Watergate environment; people wanted someone outside of Washington after such major, major corruption coming out of it. That's the perfect time for a dark horse and a person of integrity, such as Carter.

I agree with those who say that if nominated, Connally will lose more heavily than Ford did in OTL.

The majority of the Powers That Be will know this though and as a result, they'll do everything to ensure that Reagan ends up as the nominee.

Incumbency might not be much of an advantage for Connally here, since he's got most of Ford's problems (not having been elected etc and having been appointed by the only president who had to resign in disgrace) without any of his assets (only being bought in to replace Agnew after Watergate had happened).

Of course, if Connally and the Republicans are looking at an even bigger defeat than OTL, their's a chance that Reagan might just sit out 1976 and allow Connally (or whoever the nominee is) to lose to Carter or whoever.

On the other hand, I get the feeling that Connally was a fair bit more conservative than Ford and was fairly close to Reagan on some positions. With this in mind, is there any scope for a primary challenge to Connally from the left? If so, you've probably got yourself an even more devisive primary than OTL.

The discussion thus far overlooks the who President Connally, following Nixon's resignation, might pick as his Vice-President. Presumably, as a recent former Democrat turned Republican, Connally would need to pick a longtime Republican party stalwart that the conservative and moderate wings would both find acceptable.

Gov. Nelson Rockfeller doesn't fit the bill, and neither does Gov. Ronald Reagan, as both represent the distinct wings of the party. House Republican Minority Gerald Ford of Michigan, who planned to retire in a few years anyway, could end up as Connally's Vice-President in late 1974.

Ford makes the most sense for a VP at that time-he's someone most people in the house and senate (eg doing the confirming) have a lot of time for, plus he's uncontroversial and isn't associated with one particular wing of the GOP.
I still don't think Connally wins renomination if Reagan challenges him though. Any ideas as to who on the left would primary Connally, if anyone?

What are the differences in terms of polecy between president Connally ITTL and Ford in OTL? I imagine Connally to be closer to Reagan in domestic polecy, though closer to Nixon/Kissenger etc when it comes to foreign afares. In OTL Reagan challenged Ford partly on the bases of foreign polecy, so if Connally follows a simelar path to Ford in that field, that means Reagan still has another viable reason to challenge him.

What are the chances of Connally coming into contact with Sara Jane Moore or Squeaky Throam around the same time Ford did? Because if he's seriously injured but recovers, there could be an outside chance that the sympathy boost could lead to him beating Reagan and winning the nomination. Granted it's unlikely though, but that's the only way I see it happenning.

Emperor Norton I said:

The reason Carter got the nomination was because of the Post-Watergate environment; people wanted someone outside of Washington after such major, major corruption coming out of it.

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Rogue Beaver points out in threads of this type that Carter won the nomination because of the rules changes to their primary system the Democrats had adopted. Carter and his team understood the new rules before anyone else and thus were able to "crack" the system.

That's the perfect time for a dark horse and a person of integrity, such as Carter.

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If that were actually true, Carter wouldn't have pissed away a 20+ point lead in the polls between the DNC convention and the election in order to win a squeaker. The polling trends were quite clear and they had the Carter campaign scrambling. Another few days campaigning would have seen Ford win.

As for Connally, he would have been too tainted by his links to both LBJ and Nixon, plus his own alleged corruption issues, to be confirmed by Congress.