Suppose that, sometime in the 1860s, long after the deaths of his two other male children, Pedro II's wife gives birth to yet another male son. This son manages to live into adulthood. What are the immediate effects on Pedro's rule, and what are the long-term effects on Brazil and the world?
Pedro II has another son?
- Thread starter Shtudmuffin
- Start date
When the coup happens, Pedro might fight back and the coup could fail. The reason it succeeded was because Pedro allowed it because of him being unsure of the future of the Brazillian monarchy. Having a son might change that.
I agree with Tongera that Pedro would probably fight back against the coup and would probably succeed, he was hugely popular. With a continued monarchy Brazil is going to be a lot more politically stable. It's still going to be hit by the long term decline in commodity prices but probably won't fall as far behind as it did in OTL.
I know Pedro would have easily succeeded against the coup if he tried. Not only was he immensely popular, half the people involved with the coup had no idea they were overthrowing Pedro II in the first place. Once they get the memo, the coup, launched by the barely-known republicans, would stop right in its tracks. The question is, what would result?
Is there any possibility that the disenfranchised plantation owners and elite would rise up to support them, due to the very recent abolition of slavery?
Oh that... yes, that would trigger a civil war. That's why Pedro II avoided such an energetic stance, no matter how much he disliked slavery.
On the OP, this has been discussed before, for instance here and here. Summing up, the magic formula to keep the Brazilian monarchy into the 20th century involves not only having a male heir but also avoiding the Triple Alliance War.
Myself, I'm a little bit more "optimistic" but admittedly less savvy on the matter.
Wait-why would the War of the Triple Alliance affect the survival of the monarchy? It seems to me that the conflict, once it was won, would have actually given a support boost to Pedro II because of Brazil's success in the latter stages of the conflict.
The gist being:
- It severely crippled the economy;
- It empowered the military and gave rise to a new generation of officers leaning towards republicanism.
Exactly. Even at that time they knew that the war would be a disaster, no matter the result. As a Brazilian politician said "this was will destroy the loser and cripple the winner, whoever they will be".
The fact that Brazil won the war didn't mean the monarchy became more popular. In fact, the first "Republican Manifesto" was published in 1870, the very year the war ended.
Also, personally I think the idea that an order of Pedro II could actually stop the coup doesn't work. After all, how can you convince officers to shoot their fellow "brothers in uniform"? They refused to obbey the government orders IOTL because they believed they all belonged to something that was superior to civil government: the Army. I really can't see them doing it for the Emperor. The great majority of the coup leaders IOTL had a great respect for Pedro II, and considered him a patriot. It didn't stop them to send him and his family to exile to never come back, not because they didn't like him, but because they saw the idea of "monarchy" as something backwards and against the progress of civilization.
You don't even need to do this; Solano López wasn't the one expected to succeed his father(don't remember which brother was supposed to do so), yet he won the political dispute for succession. Simply have him lose the dispute.
IIRC the Marquis of Tamandaré begged Pedro's permission to do this.