What if Germany didn't attack Poland.

[TradeMachine]

Lets say that Mussolini and German advisers managed to convince Hitler that he shouldn't go to war.

What happens how?

[Snake Featherston]

There's a lot more to not having a war over Poland than Mussolini, especially as the Hossbach Memorandum made it clear that the goal of Germany was a general European war. The particular crisis that creates it is incidental to this goal.

[TradeMachine]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

There's a lot more to not having a war over Poland than Mussolini, especially as the Hossbach Memorandum made it clear that the goal of Germany was a general European war. The particular crisis that creates it is incidental to this goal.

I think that Italy and Germany signed a pact in 1939 that no of them will start a new WW.

Lets say that Germany can't get a NAP with USSR and that's the main reason to stop the invasion in Poland.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

I think that Italy and Germany signed a pact in 1939 that no of them will start a new WW.

Lets say that Germany can't get a NAP with USSR and that's the main reason to stop the invasion in Poland.

Both of these scenarios neglect the deeper rationale for warfare, to say nothing of Hitler's solemnly pledged word being utterly and totally worthless.

[TradeMachine]

Ok last chanse Hitler gets an hart attack and dies in July 1939.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

Ok last chanse Hitler gets an hart attack and dies in July 1939.

That one might work, albeit it'd torpedo the German system so badly Germany would be likely to have an economic meltdown before its military system is set to rights.

[TradeMachine]

Lets say Rudolf Hess becomes the new leader of Germany. What will happen to Europe, Japan USA ?

[sharlin]

Trade how about you put forwards your ideas instead of fishing around for what other people think? What do you think would happen?

[allegro6]

As far as I know, The German Reich sold large numbers of bonds and was at this point near of bankruptcy that means that either Germany defaults or it starts a war (i.e. war economy prevents a default). By the way, the first 'victim' that was occupied in Sep was Danzig, it maybe likely that Polend(already mobilized) might see this as an declaration of war against Poland and wage war against Germany.On the other hand, If France decides not to back Poland ("Mourir pour Dantzig?"), Poland might be lost anyway.

[TradeMachine]

First of all everything stays like it is in the spring of 1939.

Germany: Hess takes power around November. A lot of the money that would go into the military is now used for research.

Italy: After taking Albania The Italian military can now rest and Italy has now some time to prepare for the upcoming war.

GB and France are thinking that they managed to trick Germany so nothing really changes there (Churchil is no longer prime minister).

USSR BIG ? here I think Stalin won't be aggressive so no winter war or other offenses.

Japan I think that Japan will send more effort in China and less for the JEN(Japan Imperial navy)

USA Big ? here too will Roosevelt get a third mandate.

I think the WW2 will start in 1942 But everything is like a cloud from here on.

[MSZ]

If Germany doesn't attack Poland in 1939, it attacks someone else. Hitler was wired to start a war and was just looking for a reason. It may be Romania, because of its oil, or even France, just to "secure the western flank".

If Hitler magically obtains a "be smart" pill from Mussolini, causing him to realize that war would end badly no matter what he did, he continues to seek to re-obtain any German-populated territories there still are outside the Reich. He demands referenda in Danzig, Eulpen-Melmedy, Schleswig-Holstein, Sudtirol, Elsass-Lorraine, etc. He also pressures for the protection of German minorities in the countries that have them.

If he dies in July, it is Goring that takes power rather than Hess, as he is the Minister of Interior, while Hess is just a party official. Of course that doesn't exclude a subsequent struggle for power in which Hess turns out to be victorious. These guys may be less demanding about the Germans outside the Reich and more involved in wanting to stay in power and live comfortable lives, so they either try to reform the state to deal with the massive debt Germany has, or use super-repressive methods to keep the country in order despite the debt/potential default.

[aktarian]

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

First of all everything stays like it is in the spring of 1939.

Germany: Hess takes power around November. A lot of the money that would go into the military is now used for research.

Germany is nearing economic meltdown, making deep cuts into military neccessary. Depending on exact time of Hitler's death (you said July first then nothing changes from spring) it's a question on how Germany is seen. If it's after March when Germany occupied CS then they are seen as not trustworthy and while gerany reduces military spending UK and france increase it. If it's before that and Germany abides to Munich agreement then it comes down to how much Germany cuts military, how that is seen in London and how much weigth appeasers carry. I still think UK would increase defence spending

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

Italy: After taking Albania The Italian military can now rest and Italy has now some time to prepare for the upcoming war.

Still does ef all to their equipment. Italy simply lacks funds and industry to bring their forces to modern standards thought there might be some improveent, specially if Germany is willing to sell/barter some of their weapons.

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

GB and France are thinking that they managed to trick Germany so nothing really changes there (Churchil is no longer prime minister).

Churchill isn't PM yet. He became PM in May 1940, just as Gerany invaded France. I think Chamberlain would continue his PMship but he was ill so it's unlikely he'd live longer than OTL anyway.

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

USSR BIG ? here I think Stalin won't be aggressive so no winter war or other offenses.

Why not? There is no Molotov-Ribbentropp agreement, granted so he'd stay away from Poland. I don't think he would refrain from Winter war and pressure on Romania. With different situation in central Europe UK/France may act ore agressive and back Finland. Then again, he's not seen as German ally-of-sorts so maybe not. However German internal troubles combined with military reductions mean modernisation process that was going on in 1941 goes on uninterupted, plus officers get a more time to get a handle on things. So by 1942 RA is equiped with more T-34s and KVs and old tanks are out plus everybody gets more time to get to know how to handle them. Yet German vicories showed RA how tank formations should work so without that that and with Tukhackevsky's legacy still a no-no no large tank formations. But they still have arored divisions ade from modern tanks so a hard nut to crack anyway. Plus Poland and CS (depending on exact time of your POD) are still around so some sort of buffer still exist so they are even safer. rA is further east, as they should be, in prepared positions, not pushed forward into exposed ones as they were in 1941. SU seems to be the biggest winner here.

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

Japan I think that Japan will send more effort in China and less for the JEN(Japan Imperial navy)

They'll not see French and British possessions as easy targets, aking them weary of touching them. US embargo still happens so making a grab for resource rich islands is tempting, however European powers are stronger, making that a very risky move. Likely they refrain.

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

USA Big ? here too will Roosevelt get a third mandate.

Can't say.

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

I think the WW2 will start in 1942 But everything is like a cloud from here on.

Unlikely. Germany is much weaker, facing economic troubles. UK and France are stronger so ballance is shifted in their favour. Depending on who leads Germany he ight not be so willing to risk everything.

[caspian88]

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

Germany: Hess takes power around November. A lot of the money that would go into the military is now used for research.

Germany was out of money. Historically, they were juggling their economy around trying to acquire the hard foreign currency they needed to import all of the materials and goods they needed from abroad (such as food, iron, and oil) in order to fuel their war economy. However, they were allocating most of their iron to war production, which left them unable to allocate it to consumer goods that they could export (exporting large amounts of war material is out of the question, both because it would be going to potential enemies and because Germany needed it) for said hard currency. The German economy was basically an elaborate fraud - it would collapse with the slightest misstep, and Hitler's death in mid-1939 would almost certainly result in the collapse of the German economy itself.

Again, there wasn't any money left. The only way to allocate money to research instead of war production will be to continue the elaborate juggling of the economy, which I don't see as sustainable in even the short term, particularly not in the political chaos that would result from the governing element of the entire regime (Hitler himself) removed.

As for Hess, I don't really see him as more than a political functionary. Goering will be the favorite on taking charge, but there are a number of others with the ability to take over, and Nazi Germany was not exactly a country known for stability or rule of law. This is a country that had conducted a particularly nasty purge of the ruling party just a few years before - you're probably going to see the same thing happen, with a nasty civil war between various factions (Goering, Himmler, the Army, etc). Remember - the foundation of Nazi Germany was Hitler himself, and I don't see how it can survive without Hitler. The state was simply too weak, too conflict-prone (by Hitler's own design) to exist without Hitler, and he did this on purpose in order to ensure that he and he alone had real power. Hitler dies, and Nazi Germany will bleed internally. Good for the rest of the world, and good for the German people, but bad for the machinery of the state.

The rest of Europe is probably just going to watch as Germany implodes. The USSR will sit on the sidelines - they can't do anything on their own at this point (or are unwilling to without the Nazi distraction). Britain, France, and Italy aren't really going to be relevant to the possible German Civil War, until they start backing one faction or another.

Japan I think that Japan will send more effort in China and less for the JEN(Japan Imperial navy)

Japan can't send more effort to China - Japan was at the limit of its potential. China can collapse, but that's on their end, not Japan's. Also, Japan desperately needs a strong navy to counter that of the United States, and with Britain not having to worry so much about the German or Italian navies, they can send more forces to the Far East.

USA Big ? here too will Roosevelt get a third mandate.

Without a world war, I don't really see how Roosevelt could win a third term. I could be very wrong here - I'm not very knowledgeable about the state of US politics in 1939-1940, and I don't know who could replace FDR - not Garner or Wallace, certainly not Truman, but maybe Hull or Farley?

[kclcmdr]

How about Stalin continue to demand territories from those Nation states bordering his Western Approaches and while he swallows the Baltic States,

Afterall, if Herr Hitler can swallow Austria, reclaim the Rhine and dismantle and gobble up Czechoslovakia ...

Stalin can at least gain some buffer zone and/or states' territories so to plan for a future conflict with Herr Hitler..

Maybe he tries to pick on Poland and the leadership of Poland reconsiders their option and decides that it is better to deal with a fellow dictator that is anti-communistic than be force to loss territory and prestige to the demands by Stalin for him to garrison some dozen or hundreds of Polish land at the Eastern marches...

[allegro6]

"How about Stalin continue to demand territories from those Nation states bordering his Western Approaches and while he swallows the Baltic States,"

I think Stalin thought that sooner or later there will be a war between UK/France vs. Germany and I assumed that this war might exhausted all capitalistic/fascist nation(like WW1). That means the only thing he has to do is to wait!

[aktarian]

Originally Posted by allegro6

"How about Stalin continue to demand territories from those Nation states bordering his Western Approaches and while he swallows the Baltic States,"

I think Stalin thought that sooner or later there will be a war between UK/France vs. Germany and I assumed that this war might exhausted all capitalistic/fascist nation(like WW1). That means the only thing he has to do is to wait!

True, but consider that Britain issued their guarantee to Poland in March. Granted how this unfolds depend on when Hitler dies, but if he dies after guarantee Stalin might think time is running out and grab what he can before UK becomes too involved at his doorstep. So pressure on Romania, pressure on Finland and gobbling Balts is something he might do.

[Paul V McNutt]

Maybe a Nazi Polish alliance is formed during the czech crisis, as Harry Turteldove described. I assume if German troops go into Poland they take over and form a puppet governmentm that surrenders territory.

[Asharella]

The question was what if Germany doesn't invade Poland. Let's go back to that and not posit this idea of Hitler dying.

Let's say Hitler wises up and realizes that invading Poland means war with Britain and France and he's not so arrogant to think he can get a quick victory. So he looks else where, since as has been pointed out, he needs a war now.

So what if he invades Hungary?

[HMS Warspite]

For Germany in the late 30's, war was a certain thing, basically due to the ending of the Great War, which had pointed at Germany as sole innisiator of that conflict in the Treaty of Versailles and punished Germany severely as a result. This alone was more than enough reason for the German people and not only the politicians to set things back to more accaptable standards (in a German point of view), meaning the recapture of lost territories and the punishing of the "Evil" Entente powers of the Great War, as well as the equally evil Communist USSR, which was seen as a serious threat to the world.

[aktarian]

Originally Posted by Asharella

The question was what if Germany doesn't invade Poland. Let's go back to that and not posit this idea of Hitler dying.

Let's say Hitler wises up and realizes that invading Poland means war with Britain and France and he's not so arrogant to think he can get a quick victory. So he looks else where, since as has been pointed out, he needs a war now.

So what if he invades Hungary?

War looked imminent over CS year before yet Hitler pushed for Sudets anyway. Just because it looked like it will mean war doesn't mean Hitler will back down.