32 county island of Ireland in NATO

Nicola · Aug 17, 2012

in Pangur's F5 thread , a big bit of thread drift occured when Pangur mentioned that perhaps in the Irish Air Corps could have operated the F-5 , and Sparky 42 and I went off on a bit of an Ireland tangent

the Point of Divergence for this time line puts a 32 county Island of Ireland in NATO ,

one issue is how we reach this 32 county (i.e. Unified) Ireland and is she

a. An independent Republic of Ireland
b. 'the Dominion of Ireland' i.e. an effectively independent nation but aligned with the British Empire / Commonwealth who recognises the house of Windsor as it's King / Queen

a 32 county Ireland under 'direct rule' from Westminster ( i.e. part of the union ) doesn;t really fit this as the armed forces of Ireland would be British / UK forces i.e. the historical Irish regiments of British Army and ireland based units of the various Corps providing combat support and combat service support function , Royal Navy ( and Royal Marines) and Royal Air Force

an independent Ireland which is part of Nato sees Money , people and infrastructure from NATO / US forces in Europe as Shannon airport instead of being a stopping off point becomes a fully functioning USAF base ( or there is a large fully Functioning USAF base that isn't Shannon and Shannon remains a commercial airport )

ideas to develop the timeline(s) ? ( arguably there's 2 here i. Eire in NATO and ii. the Dominion of Ireland )

sparky42 · Aug 17, 2012

I've been thinking over this for a bit since we started on Pangur's thread, and I think there are a few options but issues with each of them.

The 32 county issue is a big one for a Republic, if you're talking about an OTL with the War and Civil War and Dev then the only possibility I could see would be trusting the suggestion about the Partition being ended in return for Ireland entering the war.

I had thought that maybe if the 26 county Ireland saw a bit more direct and public incursions during the war by German forces, for example a few more bombing raids or maybe some public shipping loses or an MTB catching a sub on the surface in Irish waters combined with a breakdown of Government censorship (and I would say propaganda). This might lead to the Government deciding to support the Defence Forces more after the War, with restructuring and improvements. So maybe when you get to the formation of NATO the Government might be more willing to look at the need for the Alliance.

A 32 County Dominion might be possible, one thought I had was maybe the Lords Reform reduces the delay to only one year instead of 2, so say you have Home Rule brought in, in 1913. You get resistance from Ulster but the combination of perhaps willingness to deploy troops along with the rising tensions in Europe mean you don't get heavy violence. Come WW1 the troops of Ireland are deployed together and serve together with no restrictions between them, thus improving relations post war. You also don't have the economic damage of the War of Independence, Civil War or the Economic War so Ireland would be better financial position.

During the inter war period perhaps Ireland negotiates with the UK something like the deal over the light buoys in OTL, that the UK pays some of the cost for Ireland being able to defend the approaches as it's in their interest. So maybe some Coastal Command units (using the WW1 US/UK bases), and maybe a last generation wing of fighters, and maybe some Royal Irish Navy units (perhaps to support H&W, instead of the St. Patrick maybe a County class for example)

Ireland might continue the OTL efforts to expand Dominion rights leading to the Balfour Declaration and set up relations with the US for example

This would create many bubbles in WW2 not just because of additional forces (Ireland would have about the same population level of Scotland so even without Conscription you'd see more units) and Industry (perhaps some shadow factories in Ireland as well) but also the bases. I have no idea what % difference that would make for the Convoy losses for example but it might make some small but significant difference. Once the US comes into the War you see more investment and support in the bases and maybe Ireland being a major training base. After the war you get the Marshall plan so that would have butterflies as well, this combined with the wartime experience means that Ireland becomes a founding member of NATO.

These are just rough thoughts about it. I'm sure there are holes in it.

Riain · Aug 17, 2012

I once read a book where Ireland joined NATO as a dialogue partner as part of France's contribution, it adressed all the problems in one elegant swoop.

Alex Richards · Aug 17, 2012

If the 1916 Home Rule Act was passed and implemented (perhaps combined with the ringleaders of the Easter Rising being handed over to civilian authorities and tried in Dublin for breach of the peace and loss of life, in order to avoid the military trials that changed public opinion of the rising), then I think it might still be just about possible, particularly if some form of workaround can be made with the provisions of the 1920 act which put forward essentially two subparliaments for Northern and Southern Ireland with an overarching Senate in Dublin.

sparky42 · Aug 17, 2012

Alex Richards said:
If the 1916 Home Rule Act was passed and implemented (perhaps combined with the ringleaders of the Easter Rising being handed over to civilian authorities and tried in Dublin for breach of the peace and loss of life, in order to avoid the military trials that changed public opinion of the rising), then I think it might still be just about possible, particularly if some form of workaround can be made with the provisions of the 1920 act which put forward essentially two subparliaments for Northern and Southern Ireland with an overarching Senate in Dublin.

That was the !912-1914 Act (the Third Act), I would think however if you get to the Rising then trying to hold a 32 County Ireland is even harder. A Rising during WW1 was going to have repercussions, the Unionist saw this as Ireland betraying the Empire and wanted nothing to do with it.

And I also don't see the Government being so easy on the Conspirators of the Rising given the Events of the War at this time, which has knock on effects for post WW1 Ireland.

The Oncoming Storm · Aug 17, 2012

I can remember a similar thread on this, I think you need a much earlier POD for their to be such an Irish State today, by 1913 the division between Orange and Green is already entrenched and it's difficult to see how some form of partition can be avoided. It needs something like the Act of Union never being passed and the old Kingdom of Ireland surviving to the present day with the Protestant Ascendency gradually relinquishing power. Ireland would be much stronger economically preventing the mass immigration of the 20th Century raising the population by 2-3 million.

It would have been a major asset during WW2 and the Cold War, Shannon or Foynes would have been a major base for ASW aircraft and perhaps even Lough Swilly could have been used for Polaris Submarines. It's armed forces would probably resemble those of Denmark and woud have the F-16 as its main fighter with the F-5/T-38 as a second line and training aircraft.

Blackfox5 · Aug 17, 2012

Michael Collins lives. Fine Gael manages to win whatever general election would see them in power when WWII happens (they either never lost power to Fianna Fail ITTL, or won a subsequent election). In 1940 when the Battle of Britain takes place, and Churchill offers the Irish Free State the Six Counties in return for belligerancy, Taoiseach Collins agrees provided the declaration of war only comes after the Irish army and Irish coastal defenses are improved. The Irish army is not to be sent overseas, but Irish volunteers can enter the British Army. In the meantime, Dublin allows the use of Irish ports and airbases for ASW measures. Lend Lease includes Ireland as one of the nations threatened by aggression. Sometime between August 1940 and December 1941, Ireland officially declares war. Once the US enters the war, there is little reason to delay it any longer. As part of the Allied powers, Ireland has a history of military cooperation with the other western democracies. Once the war ends, Northern Ireland is ceded to the Irish Free State. When NATO is formed, Ireland becomes one of its founding members.

sparky42 · Aug 17, 2012

The Oncoming Storm said:
I can remember a similar thread on this, I think you need a much earlier POD for their to be such an Irish State today, by 1913 the division between Orange and Green is already entrenched and it's difficult to see how some form of partition can be avoided. It needs something like the Act of Union never being passed and the old Kingdom of Ireland surviving to the present day with the Protestant Ascendency gradually relinquishing power. Ireland would be much stronger economically preventing the mass immigration of the 20th Century raising the population by 2-3 million.

It would have been a major asset during WW2 and the Cold War, Shannon or Foynes would have been a major base for ASW aircraft and perhaps even Lough Swilly could have been used for Polaris Submarines. It's armed forces would probably resemble those of Denmark and woud have the F-16 as its main fighter with the F-5/T-38 as a second line and training aircraft.

I think you're population numbers are high, at that rate Ireland would be back at it's historic heights of around 8 million or so, given Ireland's Economy I think you would still see immigration perhaps not at the same level but enough to knock down the growth figures. You might also see high war losses, if a solution to the Irish question was in place before WW1 could you see conscription, even without it maybe higher troops levels resulting in greater % losses

As for WW2 certainly Ireland would have major implications, if Ireland deployed even half as much as the Scottish units that would still be a significant number, that along with the bases and maybe a couple more Cruisers might have major butterflies.

The US would have a major role in development when they join up but I can't see Polaris subs being deployed, wouldn't it make more sense to leverage off the RN SSBN base. Instead perhaps a US frigate Squadron deployed to Ireland. I still think that if you are keeping Ireland within the Commonwealth then Ireland would leverage off UK forces then US, for example H&W using RN frigate/destroyer designs, and the same for fighter selection. If Ireland is still close to the UK I can't see Ireland absorbing the costs of training and support across all levels when the UK is available instead.

sparky42 · Aug 17, 2012

Blackfox5 said:
Michael Collins lives. Fine Gael manages to win whatever general election would see them in power when WWII happens (they either never lost power to Fianna Fail ITTL, or won a subsequent election). In 1940 when the Battle of Britain takes place, and Churchill offers the Irish Free State the Six Counties in return for belligerancy, Taoiseach Collins agrees provided the declaration of war only comes after the Irish army and Irish coastal defenses are improved. The Irish army is not to be sent overseas, but Irish volunteers can enter the British Army. In the meantime, Dublin allows the use of Irish ports and airbases for ASW measures. Lend Lease includes Ireland as one of the nations threatened by aggression. Sometime between August 1940 and December 1941, Ireland officially declares war. Once the US enters the war, there is little reason to delay it any longer. As part of the Allied powers, Ireland has a history of military cooperation with the other western democracies. Once the war ends, Northern Ireland is ceded to the Irish Free State. When NATO is formed, Ireland becomes one of its founding members.

While Collins wouldn't have the issues as Dev had with Churchill how much faith would he have to something like this. First at the time of the Battle of Britain the UK wouldn't be in a position to help invest in Irish defences, and the volunteers had that option in OTL so I don't see why that's an issue either way.

The main doubt I have with this is the validity of the offer on the North and the willingness of the North to comply. If the Free State is keeping it's Army at home while the North has conscription that would be a PR element for the North as being deserving of Loyalty by the UK. After the War you have soldiers returning to the North who may not agree. To be honest this has the potential for starting a form of The Troubles early which might have knock on effects for entering NATO.

Pangur · Aug 17, 2012

Riain said:
I once read a book where Ireland joined NATO as a dialogue partner as part of France's contribution, it addressed all the problems in one elegant swoop.

I had not considered that option. It’s elegant and not impossible

Blackfox5 said:
Michael Collins lives. Fine Gael manages to win whatever general election would see them in power when WWII happens (they either never lost power to Fianna Fail ITTL, or won a subsequent election). In 1940 when the Battle of Britain takes place, and Churchill offers the Irish Free State the Six Counties in return for belligerency, Taoiseach Collins agrees provided the declaration of war only comes after the Irish army and Irish coastal defences are improved. The Irish army is not to be sent overseas, but Irish volunteers can enter the British Army. In the meantime, Dublin allows the use of Irish ports and airbases for ASW measures. Lend Lease includes Ireland as one of the nations threatened by aggression. Sometime between August 1940 and December 1941, Ireland officially declares war. Once the US enters the war, there is little reason to delay it any longer. As part of the Allied powers, Ireland has a history of military cooperation with the other western democracies. Once the war ends, Northern Ireland is ceded to the Irish Free State. When NATO is formed, Ireland becomes one of its founding members.

Not completely impossible however it ignores the impact of the Civil war. That war has to be butterflied away for this to be truly possible. For the purposes of the thread let’s assume that Collins is Taoiseach in 1939, then building up the Army, Air Corp and Costal Defences is most certainly a very likely starting point. There is however the question about the treaty ports. Did they revert to Ireland in this TL or did they stay with the British? Lend lease would certainly help build up not just the defence forces but the nation over all.

sparky42 said:
I've been thinking over this for a bit since we started on Pangur's thread, and I think there are a few options but issues with each of them.
The 32 county issue is a big one for a Republic, if you're talking about an OTL with the War and Civil War and Dev then the only possibility I could see would be trusting the suggestion about the Partition being ended in return for Ireland entering the war.

For a 32 county approach to happen IMHO not only has the War of Independence not to happen the Home Rule bill has to pass – whole and entire and the land war has to have been shorter and far less violent.

sparky42 said:
I had thought that maybe if the 26 county Ireland saw a bit more direct and public incursions during the war by German forces, for example a few more bombing raids or maybe some public shipping loses or an MTB catching a sub on the surface in Irish waters combined with a breakdown of Government censorship (and I would say propaganda). This might lead to the Government deciding to support the Defence Forces more after the War, with restructuring and improvements. So maybe when you get to the formation of NATO the Government might be more willing to look at the need for the Alliance.

I have always considered that the only real way for the Irish to end up at war in ww2 and in NATO later was by De Valera looking to the US for support in 1939/1940. Joe Kennedy did not give the UK much of a chance and perhaps the US sees an alliance with the Irish as the basis of a fall back plan if the UK falls.

sparky42 · Aug 17, 2012

Pangur said:
Not completely impossible however it ignores the impact of the Civil war. That war has to be butterflied away for this to be truly possible. For the purposes of the thread let’s assume that Collins is Taoiseach in 1939, then building up the Army, Air Corp and Costal Defences is most certainly a very likely starting point. There is however the question about the treaty ports. Did they revert to Ireland in this TL or did they stay with the British? Lend lease would certainly help build up not just the defence forces but the nation over all.

If Dev is alive as well it depends how the rest of the interwar period goes. Would there be the Economic Trade War. If that is ruled out or ended early perhaps the finances would be improved.

As to the Treaty Ports perhaps if the UK offered to pay for improvements in the Ports and surrounding infrastructure. One of the reasons they were given back was the need for upgrades to WW2 standards. Even without Lend Lease if you have Coastal Command and Convoy squadrons basing out of Ireland you have a investment from the personnel (how much food and drink do you think they'd go through).

For a 32 county approach to happen IMHO not only has the War of Independence not to happen the Home Rule bill has to pass – whole and entire and the land war has to have been shorter and far less violent.

I agree that a 32 county would be extremely difficult, my suggestion of a 1913 Home Rule would be difficult and most likely would have some resistance in Ulster, its why I suggested that Irish Forces be deployed in a more unified way to undermine the divisions between the populations. It's still difficult though.

I have always considered that the only real way for the Irish to end up at war in ww2 and in NATO later was by De Valera looking to the US for support in 1939/1940. Joe Kennedy did not give the UK much of a chance and perhaps the US sees an alliance with the Irish as the basis of a fall back plan if the UK falls.

From memory wasn't the US leadership indifferent verging on hostile to Ireland, as they couldn't understand why Ireland wasn't getting involved anyway? Would they back Ireland or tell Ireland to support the UK instead to confront the Nazis.

Perhaps if the Irish Government Censorship wasn't so universal, (for example the Irish people having graphic pictures of how Neutrality worked for Denmark, Norway and Holland), then there might be more pressure on the Government about the policy. Or maybe a leak about the deal to support Ireland in case of invasion.

Even if the US was willing to accept this, I think that the Irish Government would have to be more willing to accept International support than what they were at the time.

Pangur · Aug 17, 2012

sparky42 said:
If Dev is alive as well it depends how the rest of the interwar period goes. Would there be the Economic Trade War. If that is ruled out or ended early perhaps the finances would be improved.

The economic war had its roots in the Land war which one reason why I have suggested a shorter and less violent version of it as one POD. However just how big a difference it would have made (economic war not happening) is an open question.

sparky42 said:
As to the Treaty Ports perhaps if the UK offered to pay for improvements in the Ports and surrounding infrastructure. One of the reasons they were given back was the need for upgrades to WW2 standards. Even without Lend Lease if you have Coastal Command and Convoy squadrons basing out of Ireland you have a investment from the personnel (how much food and drink do you think they'd go through).

Having coastal command squadrons based in Ireland would have helped - yes they would have eaten and drank a nice bit

. One thing which I have always been near enough certain is that Irish involvement in WW2 would have boosted infrastructure no end. I have also wondered if the 50`s would have been a bleak as they were in the OTL.The more you reduce emigration the bigger the population

sparky42 said:
I agree that a 32 county would be extremely difficult, my suggestion of a 1913 Home Rule would be difficult and most likely would have some resistance in Ulster, its why I suggested that Irish Forces be deployed in a more unified way to undermine the divisions between the populations. It's still difficult though.

Very difficult for sure. I am curious as to what you mean by deploying the Defense forces in a more unified way.

sparky42 said:
From memory wasn't the US leadership indifferent verging on hostile to Ireland, as they couldn't understand why Ireland wasn't getting involved anyway? Would they back Ireland or tell Ireland to support the UK instead to confront the Nazis.

As I understand it that view was only formed later in the war which is why I picked out the window that i did. The US sold weapons to the Irish in 1939 and 40, Springfield rifles being one example so they can't have been that down on the Irish at the time - in fact if they were it would be a bit rich seeing as they were neutral

sparky42 said:
Perhaps if the Irish Government Censorship wasn't so universal, (for example the Irish people having graphic pictures of how Neutrality worked for Denmark, Norway and Holland), then there might be more pressure on the Government about the policy. Or maybe a leak about the deal to support Ireland in case of invasion.

Now there is a cracking idea

Pangur · Aug 17, 2012

Riain said:
I once read a book where Ireland joined NATO as a dialogue partner as part of France's contribution, it adressed all the problems in one elegant swoop.

This has been running around my head all morning. I do like the idea and it has put another idea in my head which is an alliance in the 50`'s between Ireland & Spain and just maybe Portugal - they were all very Catholic reactionary states at the time with no time for communism. That alliance has US support and then later on they join NATO together.

Geordie · Aug 18, 2012

Pangur said:
Very difficult for sure. I am curious as to what you mean by deploying the Defense forces in a more unified way.

I assume Sparky means avoiding having 'Ulster' formations and 'Irish' formations. If they're all together in the horror of somewhere like the Somme or Passchendale, it might do a lot to break down some barriers. At least on a personal level for those serving, perhaps.

Pangur · Aug 18, 2012

Geordie said:
I assume Sparky means avoiding having 'Ulster' formations and 'Irish' formations. If they're all together in the horror of somewhere like the Somme or Passchendale, it might do a lot to break down some barriers. At least on a personal level for those serving, perhaps.

In ww1 there was Munster, Leinster & Connacht units as well as Ulster units in the British army as well as "Irish' units . There was also various units with Irish in the name as well for sure. As it happens the 30th Ulster division was not the only Irish division that fought at the Somme. The 16th and Royal Irish Rifles, the 10th Royal [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Fusiliers as examples.

Just because the division had the name of the name of a province equally did not imply that you came from that area.
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sparky42 · Aug 18, 2012

Pangur said:
In ww1 there was Munster, Leinster & Connacht units as well as Ulster units in the British army as well as "Irish' units . There was also various units with Irish in the name as well for sure. As it happens the 30th Ulster division was not the only Irish division that fought at the Somme. The 16th and Royal Irish Rifles, the 10th Royal [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Fusiliers as examples.

Just because the division had the name of the name of a province equally did not imply that you came from that area.
[/FONT]

From memory though wasn't there a difference in leadership in the divisions? With British officers for the Southern troops and the Ulster troops having officers raised in Ulster.

I suppose what I also meant was avoiding the editing out of the Volunteers after the Free State's formation. If you avoid the Rising and have the troops being respected when they return then it might improve the relations with Unionist section in the North.

Pangur · Aug 18, 2012

sparky42 said:
From memory though wasn't there a difference in leadership in the divisions? With British officers for the Southern troops and the Ulster troops having officers raised in Ulster.

I suppose what I also meant was avoiding the editing out of the Volunteers after the Free State's formation. If you avoid the Rising and have the troops being respected when they return then it might improve the relations with Unionist section in the North.

It was not as black and white as that. It would be very true to say that there was a somewhat deeper pool of Ulster officers to pick from Having said that there was still very much an Ascendancy class in the south.

I would agree that no rising would help things however it would require a lot more for the Unionist to play nice - No Orange order would also be a huge help or even no revival of it

sparky42 · Aug 18, 2012

Pangur said:
It was not as black and white as that. It would be very true to say that there was a somewhat deeper pool of Ulster officers to pick from Having said that there was still very much an Ascendancy class in the south.

I would agree that no rising would help things however it would require a lot more for the Unionist to play nice - No Orange order would also be a huge help or even no revival of it

True but perhaps some of the Ulster officers would be put in charge of more southern units, might that diminish some negative views either way?

Certainly the Unionists would have to play nice, if Ireland was in a Home Rule/Dominion situation then perhaps the Dublin and London could put together an economic package to help induce them? That's why I was suggesting a package of Warships to be built in Belfast.

Pangur · Aug 18, 2012

sparky42 said:
True but perhaps some of the Ulster officers would be put in charge of more southern units, might that diminish some negative views either way?

Definitely

sparky42 said:
Certainly the Unionists would have to play nice, if Ireland was in a Home Rule/Dominion situation then perhaps the Dublin and London could put together an economic package to help induce them? That's why I was suggesting a package of Warships to be built in Belfast.

Might well work as would building up industry in the south as a subtle warning

sparky42 · Aug 18, 2012

Pangur said:
Having coastal command squadrons based in Ireland would have helped - yes they would have eaten and drank a nice bit . One thing which I have always been near enough certain is that Irish involvement in WW2 would have boosted infrastructure no end. I have also wondered if the 50`s would have been a bleak as they were in the OTL.The more you reduce emigration the bigger the population

That's a big point, could Shorts be enlarged before WW2 if you had all Ireland involved? The naval repair yard in Cork would be running all the time supporting the Convoys. As for the infrastructure investment, certainly that would be massive and have ramifications, Airports all over for example, perhaps upgrades to the Ports which would reduce government spending. How any Marshall funds would be spent would be interesting as well, the 50's would be up in the air, depending on what investments they had chosen I would think there might still be levels of immigration but not the terrible levels of OTL. To be honest I think some level of immigration will happen one way or the other (War brides for example)

Now there is a cracking idea

The couple of reason I say that was, one because of a plaque in Rosslare about a cargo/passenger ship lost in the War. It actually states that it was sunk by "unknown" aircraft. Lets be honest I really doubt the RAF was sinking ships in the Irish Sea. There's also the suggestion that the bombing of Dublin was a conspiracy from Churchill.