WI: No Italo-German Alliance

Before becoming BFFs, Fascist Italy was quite critical of Nazi Germany. What if, possibly as a milder reaction to the war in Abbysinia in the League of Nations, Italy remains unfriendly towards Germany.

How would this affect the world? Would Germany still go to war? What would Mussolini's reputation be after his regime ends?

Most difficult...

Italy might have a more friendly attitude to UK and France and vice versa...

That might influence the Italian engagement in the Spanish civil war... Italy might even give no support to the nationalists. could this lead to a shorter war and the republic victorious? (Germany sent less support actually)

The Italians had an alliance (sort of) with Hungary and Austria which got bagged when Italy and the Reich got friends.

So another MAIN difference might come in 1938 - would Italy support Austrian independence? If yes, Germany might not even get the Sudeten lands (no munich agreement)!

ScorchedLight said:

Before becoming BFFs, Fascist Italy was quite critical of Nazi Germany. What if, possibly as a milder reaction to the war in Abbysinia in the League of Nations, Italy remains unfriendly towards Germany.

How would this affect the world? Would Germany still go to war? What would Mussolini's reputation be after his regime ends?

Click to expand...

Austria is the likeliest flashing point.
Now, first problem. French and British reaction in the Abyssianian matter WAS the mildest possible. What Italy did was naked aggression of the basest kind, supported by a campaign of racist lies. It was too much even for the debatable political morality of that era.
The powers that be showed the bare minumum of required indignation and essentially let the Italian aggression go on unchecked, thus showing once again that Geneva was unable to ensure peace or protect weaker nations from the greed of more powerful neighbors.
On the other hand, even that mild reaction was enough to hinder any option of Italian alliance with the Franco-British, even if keeping Germany in check was an obvious common interest of all three.
So Italy had basically no other option than approaching Germany.
There were attempts to thwart the process after 1937, and the sanctions were actually lifted soon after the Ethiopian fate was consumed in the hypocritical indifference of the world. But even those relatively mild sanctions had provoked outrage in Italy. Mussolini was not Ingsoc, cannot tell "Italy is allied with France. Italy has been always allied with France." when the year before the Western power were the evil enemies who deny Italians their rightful place in the sun and starve the nation out of envy.
For Britain and France, not reacting to the invasion of Ethiopia would tantamount to say they are ok with unjustified aggressions made of out naked greed. Which of course they were at the bottom line (just ask, well, half the world) but they could not say that.
Italy could not afford international isolation. German alliance was the obvious alternative, as it was in the 1880s. Strange bedfellows, in both cases (it is apparent in hindsight that alliance with Germany was against Italian best interests). Your best option might really be no Abyssinian war, or a war where Abyssinia could be clearly be spinned out as the aggressor, which is fairly hard to do.

Mussolini would also have to have the sense to go listen to Balbo, only problem is Fascist Italy left the League of Nations, because being a part of it wouldn't be of any benefit to Fascist Italy's goal. You would either have to make Mussolini less ambitious, in terms of a new Roman Empire, or maybe have Britain and France be willing to offer concessions down the line.

BBadolato said:

Mussolini would also have to have the sense to go listen to Balbo, only problem is Fascist Italy left the League of Nations, because being a part of it wouldn't be of any benefit to Fascist Italy's goal. You would either have to make Mussolini less ambitious, in terms of a new Roman Empire, or maybe have Britain and France be willing to offer concessions down the line.

Click to expand...

Britain and France were willing to make some concessions, but not as much to satisfy Italy.
There was a lot of Fascist leaders that mistrusted Hitler and would have preferred a cordial relationship with the West, even after Abyssinia had made it hardly feasible.
Basically, France and Britain had emerged from WWI as the world powers, but part of the legitimacy of their world power lied in their theoretical committment to protect smaller nations from greedy neighbors. There was an obvious contradiction in this that Italian propaganda had an easy time in pointing out, but the point is that in this way, Britain and France would be pressed hard in making any substantial concession.

The details of the Hoare-Laval Plan aren't leaked to the French Press, the plan is implemented and the Stresa Front as an UK-France-Italy alliance survives. Objectively speaking, Mussolini has no reason to love Hitler and his pan-germanist attitude, as he has a German minority in Sudtirol - keeping Germany out of there is in his interest, as is preventing the Anschluss. So Austria is the most likely flashpoint in a confrontation - when Hitler demands Anschluss, Schuschnigg replies with holding a referendum and Mussolini - rather than keeping quiet - supports that, informing that aggressive action against Austria will be met with Italian resistance. Now that might give Hitler food for thought. 4 options:

1) He presses for the anschluss and Italy stays quiet regardless of Duce's calls
2) He presses for the anschluss and Italy moves into Austria triggering war. France and the UK might step in.
3) Hitler waits, the referendum takes place and the Austrians vote against a union, preserving the peace (for the time being)
4) Hitler waits, the referendum takes place and the Austrians vote for a union, giving us an OTL result.

No. 4 is most likely in my opinion. But obviously that victory would not satisfy Hitler, and it is likely that it might trigger faster formation of an anti-German alliance, uniting the Stresa Front with the Little Entente and the Warsaw Accord. Next flashpoint is the Sudetenland of course, and with Italy in its side, France might just be more willing to protect the Czechs, giving us a Fall Grun scenarion, with Italians opening a front in the south, possibly demanding a carte blanche in Albania, or even being given Tunisia.

MSZ said:

The details of the Hoare-Laval Plan aren't leaked to the French Press, the plan is implemented and the Stresa Front as an UK-France-Italy alliance survives. Objectively speaking, Mussolini has no reason to love Hitler and his pan-germanist attitude, as he has a German minority in Sudtirol - keeping Germany out of there is in his interest, as is preventing the Anschluss. So Austria is the most likely flashpoint in a confrontation - when Hitler demands Anschluss, Schuschnigg replies with holding a referendum and Mussolini - rather than keeping quiet - supports that, informing that aggressive action against Austria will be met with Italian resistance. Now that might give Hitler food for thought. 4 options:

1) He presses for the anschluss and Italy stays quiet regardless of Duce's calls
2) He presses for the anschluss and Italy moves into Austria triggering war. France and the UK might step in.
3) Hitler waits, the referendum takes place and the Austrians vote against a union, preserving the peace (for the time being)
4) Hitler waits, the referendum takes place and the Austrians vote for a union, giving us an OTL result.

No. 4 is most likely in my opinion. But obviously that victory would not satisfy Hitler, and it is likely that it might trigger faster formation of an anti-German alliance, uniting the Stresa Front with the Little Entente and the Warsaw Accord. Next flashpoint is the Sudetenland of course, and with Italy in its side, France might just be more willing to protect the Czechs, giving us a Fall Grun scenarion, with Italians opening a front in the south, possibly demanding a carte blanche in Albania, or even being given Tunisia.

Click to expand...

Albania is quite possible, Tunisia is very unlikely.

Falecius said:

Albania is quite possible, Tunisia is very unlikely.

Click to expand...

Almost sure, even because Albania was already an economic colony of Italy so it's really hard for Uk and France to give up.
Yes the pact over Ethiopia not leaked and implemented it's the better as basically give Benny some saveface option and diminish his popularity so that declaring war against the king suggestion is more difficult.
Regarding Spain, i don't know, after all it's not the other big two are really happy of a repubblican Spain so even if Italy give the same amount of help to Franco they will not really oppose it more than OTL.