Is USSR doomed if Japan invades?

[Boom22]

A simple WI, if Japan, for whatever reason, honours their alliance with Germany and attack the USSR via Manchuria is the USSR doomed?

[Spearblast]

From what I've read, from here and elsewhere, is that:
1.) The far east was kept at near, if not at full fighting strength.
2.) The Japanese Army was tied down holding China.
3.) The Japanese Army also was inferior to the Soviets in every way.

Now it might work if someone kills Stalin during the German invasion, and both the Germans and Japanese abuse it.
Though from my understanding the Army was getting all the hand me downs compared to the navy.

If I'm incorrect I'm sorry, someone who's more well versed will give you a better answer.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Well, the Japanese invasion would have tied down the Siberian divisions that were needed to defend Moscow from the Wehrmacht, though the Kwangtung Army would have been curbstomped since they are still too weak from their last curbstomping scenario (aka: Khalkin Gol) If Japan invades north, then it would have been a relief for the Western Allies not to have their colonies invaded.

[FDW]

I wouldn't say doomed, but it's going to make things a lot harder for the USSR. Might give the RoC a breather…

[Japhy]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

Well, the Japanese invasion would have tied down the Siberian divisions that were needed to defend Moscow from the Wehrmacht, though the Kwangtung Army would have been curbstomped since they are still too weak from their last curbstomping scenario (aka: Khalkin Gol) If Japan invades north, then it would have been a relief for the Western Allies not to have their colonies invaded.

The problem with that idea is that the Divisions that defended Moscow were from Central Asia, not the far east. Stalin and STAVKA can leave the entire Army in the Far East to fight against the Japanese and not lose a man he had at Moscow.

[juanml82]

There might have been a battle of Moscow, due the lack of Siberian reinforcements, but it's a bit of a stretch - the Germans were already at their limit. I doubt the Germans can win it, if they can wage it at all, that is. However, it may damage key infrastructure in the city which would take the Soviets a while to repair.
The Japanese, even if they manage to advance north, will find nothing of value except Vladivostok. The only, very serious, issue is the lack of lend lease through Vladivostok.

[hairysamarian]

Originally Posted by Spearblast

From what I've read, from here and elsewhere, is that:
1.) The far east was kept at near, if not at full fighting strength.
2.) The Japanese Army was tied down holding China.
3.) The Japanese Army also was inferior to the Soviets in every way.

All of the above. Reinforcements for the west were taken from the center, not the east. The Japanese would have found out early what they found out in 1945 anyways.

[hairysamarian]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

Well, the Japanese invasion would have tied down the Siberian divisions that were needed to defend Moscow from the Wehrmacht,.

Reinforcements, from what I've read, weren't taken from Siberia. The Japanese would have run into Soviet forces that were at full strength. It would have sucked to be them.

[RamscoopRaider]

Originally Posted by hairysamarian

All of the above. Reinforcements for the west were taken from the center, not the east. The Japanese would have found out early what they found out in 1945 anyways.

Not quite, their logistics aren't up to 1945 levels, they can stop the Japanese and make a few slow, short advances but they can't take the Kwatung Army off the board yet

[strangeland]

The Japanese get curb-stomped and lose Manchuria, and quite possibly Korea as well.

[BigWillyG]

How would the Soviets have reacted politically? Military they were in a good place but if the Japanese invade when Stalin is still freaking out about Barbarossa could either Japan or Germany gain a good political win out of it do to Soviet internal problems?

[Paul V McNutt]

This delays the Soviet drive against the Germans. They would take less of Eastern Europe. It would also drain the Japanese if they also tried to the southern route. In that case I see a faster Anglo US victory.

[BigWillyG]

Originally Posted by Paul V McNutt

This delays the Soviet drive against the Germans. They would take less of Eastern Europe. It would also drain the Japanese if they also tried to the southern route. In that case I see a faster Anglo US victory.

Would this butterfly away the Pacific War though? I don't see Japan taking on the US and UK at the same time as the USSR.

[hairysamarian]

Originally Posted by BigWillyG

How would the Soviets have reacted politically? Military they were in a good place but if the Japanese invade when Stalin is still freaking out about Barbarossa could either Japan or Germany gain a good political win out of it do to Soviet internal problems?

Probably not. Japan's invasion would have been given a bloody nose and been thrown back (maybe not as quickly as I think, but still). The war in the west plays out much like it did IOTL. Personally, I think the result is Soviet occupation of more of East Asia than IOTL when Japan learns early that the Kwantung Army is living in the wrong era.

[MarshalBraginsky]

In this case, the Soviets would be too weak to grab Eastern Europe as their vassals, but they could do more with East Asia.

[WhatIsAUserName]

Why, exactly, would Japan invade the Soviet Union? Intervention by the Soviets was, if not their biggest fear, one of Japan's chief worries.

[BigWillyG]

Originally Posted by hairysamarian

Probably not. Japan's invasion would have been given a bloody nose and been thrown back (maybe not as quickly as I think, but still). The war in the west plays out much like it did IOTL. Personally, I think the result is Soviet occupation of more of East Asia than IOTL when Japan learns early that the Kwantung Army is living in the wrong era.

I'm sure the Soviet military would have done well against the Japanese but I'm wondering if the Soviets would have let that happen politically? I'm wondering what happens if Stalin freaks out and offers a "peace at any price" deal to the Japanese before the Soviet Far East armies can actually show their stuff.

[Gunnarnz]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

Why, exactly, would Japan invade the Soviet Union? Intervention by the Soviets was, if not their biggest fear, one of Japan's chief worries.

It's a good move in the board game Axis & Allies, potentially a game-winning one if the USSR isn't propped up adequately by it's allies.
Which just goes to show that we should be careful about using our experiences in that - or Hearts of Iron - to inform our strategic decision-making. In 1941, there's no obvious reason for them to perform such an act - the Siberian resources haven't yet been discovered, and it's the desperate need for strategic resources which drove Japanese strategy. With nothing to gain by doing so, not even helping Germany (as others have said, the Japanese attack wouldn't even divert troops from reinforcing Moscow), it's hard to see any reason they would even consider this. They may have had contingency plans for it - armies have contingency plans for all sorts of things - but that's a long way from any actual desire or capability to do so.

[hairysamarian]

Originally Posted by BigWillyG

I'm sure the Soviet military would have done well against the Japanese but I'm wondering if the Soviets would have let that happen politically? I'm wondering what happens if Stalin freaks out and offers a "peace at any price" deal to the Japanese before the Soviet Far East armies can actually show their stuff.

It seems very unlikely. He stuck it out in the west, where the threat was genuine, after all. Against the Kwantung Army and its bandbox tanks, I just don't see what would drive him to panic.

[BigWillyG]

Originally Posted by hairysamarian

It seems very unlikely. He stuck it out in the west, where the threat was genuine, after all. Against the Kwantung Army and its bandbox tanks, I just don't see what would drive him to panic.

Wasn't Stalin close to a breakdown during the opening of Barbarossa IOTL though? Add the the stresses of a two front war and I can see him going over the edge.