How many wars would happen in Middle East if Israel never existed

[Jason222]

What if Israel never existed how many wars between Arab states would have happen. What Middle East look like to day. To my option Middle East blood bath say the least. Egypt often claim Yemen and Sudan are part Egypt. Syria claim rights both Jordan ,Lebanon and area now Israel as part Syria and Jordan making same claim for Jordan. Iraq claim to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia own disputation with Iran. Needless say Middle East big blood bath if Israel never created. That only if likely no reason think USA and USSR pull into the mess.

[Paul V McNutt]

Arab states would have fought over hordes and oil.

[juanml82]

Well, the USA and, just maybe, the USSR as well, would intervene to stop the wars, specially after oil prices rise as the oil must flow. I guess the USSR could play a destabilizing factor if they decide to prop warmongering leaders so the Western economies suffer due the oil market's reaction to wars. Plus, they have the whole 'warm sea port' thing.

I also wonder how many people will be banned by the end of this thread.

[Falecius]

Originally Posted by Jason222

What if Israel never existed how many wars between Arab states would have happen. What Middle East look like to day. To my option Middle East blood bath say the least. Egypt often claim Yemen and Sudan are part Egypt. Syria claim rights both Jordan ,Lebanon and area now Israel as part Syria and Jordan making same claim for Jordan. Iraq claim to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia own disputation with Iran. Needless say Middle East big blood bath if Israel never created. That only if likely no reason think USA and USSR pull into the mess.

While there is a hell of a lot of competing claims and other messes regarding borders (that, by the way, have been mostly drawn in Paris neighbourhoods with little attention to any Arab request) most of the ones you report must belong to some ATL I would like to know more about. Egypt claiming Yemen in late twelfth century? Tell me more about this world, sounds fascinating.
Back to OTL, Arab countries have managed to create a fairly nasty bloodbath the presence of Israel notwithstanding. Sure it could have been worse, but I tend to think that the Palestinian refugees around are a further factor of conflict, as Lebanon and Jordan have largely shown.
Much depends of the exact POD that takes Israel away, because it might entail different borders elsewhere as well.

[Kaiphranos]

The Iran-Iraq war managed to be a pretty bloody affair, and something similar could probably occur even without that third I-country. (No, I don't mean India...)

Part of it may depend on how Israel not-exists, as well--do we end up with an independent Palestine covering roughly the same area? Does it have some sort of Jewish minority, and if so, how substantial? How does it get along with its neighbors? Are the borders basically the ones established post-WWI, or are we talking a POD further back?

[black angel]

hard to say, but likely a lot, "Progressive" Republics and Conservative Monarchies were offend at each other's throats, only the great skill of the Kings of Jordan and the uniting issue of Israel saved them from war with Syria and/or Egypt, and a few times it was a near thing, we likely see the Arab Cold War get hotter, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Egypt (and maybe the rest of the North Africans) vs. Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states

[Falecius]

Originally Posted by black angel

hard to say, but likely a lot, "Progressive" Republics and Conservative Monarchies were offend at each other's throats, only the great skill of the Kings of Jordan and the uniting issue of Israel saved them from war with Syria and/or Egypt, and a few times it was a near thing, we likely see the Arab Cold War get hotter, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Egypt (and maybe the rest of the North Africans) vs. Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states

Quite possible, but without Israel, there is no guarantee that there would be such a number of "republics", except probably Syria. Lebanon would be almost surely a Republic, but would as well put any effort to stay out any larger conflict if it has any choice. The whole Egyptian polical game is completely changed without the 1948 defeat.
There could be other "national" unfiers for the Arab world (Algeria? Hatay?) but probably nothing as effective as Israel.
I expect a degree of conflict approximately similar to OTL on average, (considered on a 1947-2012 timespan) maybe more conflicts early and less bloodbaths later ar the area can stabilize. But I admit it is little more than a guess.

[BigWillyG]

Without the unifying mutual enemy effect of Israel could you actual see more wars? The borders between various Arab states were either poorly delineated or the results of colonialism. Maybe see Africa style post-colonial wars between Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, et al over borders and resources in the 1950s and '60s at least?

[Snake Featherston]

Without Israel, the Arab states have the Palestinian War of Independence, one of the longest-running wars in human history aimed at them, and the likes of Arafat are still going to be prominent leaders of a strictly Palestinian nationalism. You'd see plenty of clashes between movements like the Ba'ath and the monarchies, as well as whatever Iran decides to start stirring up trouble with, most likely over the Shatt Al-Arab.

[MattII]

Well there'd be three or four big ones less, but probably way more smaller ones as Israel wouldn't be there as a lightning rod for most of the region's enmity.

[TheNordicBrit]

There was also almost a war between Syria and Jordan, I believe, and Israel helped mediate a peace. Then there's Lebanon too, countries may get involved in either side there. As has been noted there's the Iraq-Iran War, also Iraq could still attack Kuwait, there's also a potentially divided Yemen and so-forth...

[Falecius]

There is a lot of flashpoints. However, the Lebanese Civil war is probably averted altogether, or not as much a carnage as the OTL version was (though small-scale violence in Lebanon remains very possible).
Remember that without Israel, the Ba'ath party is very unlikely to become so prominent as it did OTL.

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by Jason222

What if Israel never existed how many wars between Arab states would have happen.

Lots. There was a clash between Libya and Egypt in the Western Desert, Egypt and Sudan have a festering border dispute, Egypt intervened in the Yemeni civil war, there have been guerrilla insurrections in Aden and Oman, and Algeria and Morocco have been at odds over Western Sahara for decades. Plus the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the Lebanese Civil War.

The Iraq-Iran War was in the Middle East, but Iran is not an Arab state.

[Jason222]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Without Israel, the Arab states have the Palestinian War of Independence, one of the longest-running wars in human history aimed at them, and the likes of Arafat are still going to be prominent leaders of a strictly Palestinian nationalism. You'd see plenty of clashes between movements like the Ba'ath and the monarchies, as well as whatever Iran decides to start stirring up trouble with, most likely over the Shatt Al-Arab.

Not likley UK draw Palestine part Jordan by the way Jordan and Egypt long hate relationship would get better Jordan and Egypt during Israel war of independent the two more interest in grap land and compete with each other beat the Zionist so what make any think two kingdom not gone war each other. Maybe Nasser raise to from ashes. Since in pratice Jordan army so much better trained and then Nasser took over Syria and Egypt divide spoils of Jordan. Egypt aim revolution aims thought out the Middle East. Iraq attack Kuwait long time ago Egypt aim greater Egypt and Syria aim for greater Syria likely lead blood war between the two. Iran and Saudi Arabia have own fire fights. Then all tribe,clan and ethic issues explode as well .True middle Eastern blood bath making worst part Africa look pardise to compares. Maybe Arab world thank Israel for fact living nicely in first place. I true person think Arab spring being of night mare.

[Snake Featherston]

Make that post legible, please.

[BigWillyG]

I could see Egypt, Syria and Jordan fighting over influence or outright control over Palestine.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by BigWillyG

I could see Egypt, Syria and Jordan fighting over influence or outright control over Palestine.

And of course Fatah or something like it would show up to oppose them. Yasser Arafat's rise IOTL was a product of a view that Palestinian nationalism ideally should not depend on any foreign sponsors. Ideals never matched reality, however, in terms of this, but it showed the niche was there if someone decided to exploit it.

[IchBinDieKaiser]

The simple answer is yes there will be at least as many wars as OTL if not more. The scale of these wars is the only difference I can see. I think we would actually see more wars, but on a smaller scale, and fought for different reasons (most likely oil).

We must also address what happens with what would have been OTL Israel. Does the territory become an additional Arab state, does it get annexed by Jordan or Syria, or partitioned between them? I think it would most likely have been annexed by Jordan, considering that the two territories were once part of the Palestine Mandate.

[Herzen's love-child]

Originally Posted by IchBinDieKaiser

We must also address what happens with what would have been OTL Israel. Does the territory become an additional Arab state, does it get annexed by Jordan or Syria, or partitioned between them? I think it would most likely have been annexed by Jordan, considering that the two territories were once part of the Palestine Mandate.

Part of the reason there would be as many if not more wars than OTL. This area would be contested between the Palestinians, Jordan and Egypt at the very least.
They don't call this a bit of a bad neighborhood for nothing...

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Herzen's love-child

Part of the reason there would be as many if not more wars than OTL. This area would be contested between the Palestinians, Jordan and Egypt at the very least.
They don't call this a bit of a bad neighborhood for nothing...

Imagine Yasser Arafat as an ATL *real* leader of resistance against *Arab states*.