Would Germany Ever Split Up Austria-Hungary?

[wiking]

Assuming WW1 doesn't start in 1914 and Franz Ferdinand isn't assassinated, eventually AH is going to run into ethnic troubles.
1916-7 is going to be a bad period for AH, because Franz Josef dies and Franz Ferdinand is going to take the throne. He planned on fighting the Hungarian nobility for control over Hungary either politically or with the military.

So that gets to my question:
Would Germany ever sanction the break up of Austria-Hungary? They were Germany's only ally by 1914 and would likely remain so for decades. Still, it was a juicy target, as Germany could get Austria (including all of the German-speaking areas denied to it IOTL in 1919 like South Tyrol, Sopron, Pressburg, and better borders with Slovenia), Bohemia, and Moravia. Russia could get Galica, Romania Bukowina and Transsylvania, Serbia can get Bosnia-Herzogovina, Slovenia and Croatia can form their own country, while Italy gets nothing, because really, no one respected them, nor cozied to their idea of Empire. Hungary loses a lot, but keeps Slovakia minus Pressburg.

This also means Russia can become friendlier with Germany...if they were willing to write off the Czechs. It makes Romania much friendlier once it has Transsylvania, it somewhat neutralizes Serbia's demands, while also getting Croatia-Slovenia and Hungary as economic client states.
Italy probably becomes hostile, but is virtually no threat to Germany thanks to the Alps, even in South Tyrol.

The Habsburg reduced realm can join Germany as a 5th kingdom, leaving them to govern themselves locally, but integrating them economically. Still this introduces lots of Catholics and increasingly socialists into the German Empire, which the Prussia nobility did not like, but the increasingly powerful Pan-German (Alldeutsch) groups in the middle class had no problem with that, but rather wanted a 'greater Germany'.

So at what point, if ever, would Germany take a hand in breaking up Austria-Hungary?

[rast]

1. They would try to keep the corpse look alive as long as possible.
2. If that doesn't help, they'll try to prop up the Hungarians as new masters.
3. If that fails, they may accept Austria, Tyrolia and the Sudeten Germans into the Reich - or rather try to create a state from these remnants (depends whether the Reich has already become social democrat dominated or is still run by the old elites).
4. Nobody will get any friendlier to Germany by carving up a piece of the old empire. In fact, the War of Habsburg Succession may replace the Great War.

[yourworstnightmare]

For this you would have to have the Junkers less afraid of accepting more Catholics into Germany. Thus they may be willing to avoid the Zombie in the Middle of Europe dissolve, and they gobbling up the German speaking parts (and probably the Czech and Slovenian parts too).

[wiking]

Originally Posted by yourworstnightmare

For this you would have to have the Junkers less afraid of accepting more Catholics into Germany. Thus they may be willing to avoid the Zombie in the Middle of Europe dissolve, and they gobbling up the German speaking parts (and probably the Czech and Slovenian parts too).

Would the Socialists forcing a constitution on the Kaiser at some point in the late 10's/1920's have given them the ability to bypass the Junkers?

[Snake Featherston]

Yes, as evidently both Hindenburg and Ludendorff were actually planning their next war against the Dual Monarchy.

[wiking]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Yes, as evidently both Hindenburg and Ludendorff were actually planning their next war against the Dual Monarchy.

Source on that? I know they hated the Austrians, especially Kaiser Karl, but by 1917 AH was pretty much their puppet. Would it be a war or a sanctioned breakup and occupation?

Also I was referring to a non-WW1 scenario, so H-L wouldn't be a factor. Nor would the intense hostility that cropped up during the war.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by wiking

Source on that? I know they hated the Austrians, especially Kaiser Karl, but by 1917 AH was pretty much their puppet. Would it be a war or a sanctioned breakup and occupation?

Also I was referring to a non-WW1 scenario, so H-L wouldn't be a factor. Nor would the intense hostility that cropped up during the war.

Asprey's book on Hindenburg and Ludendorff. Specifically he references this in the chapters detailing the end of the war in 1918. It was supposed to be a war leading to a sanctioned breakup and occupation.

[yourworstnightmare]

Originally Posted by wiking

Would the Socialists forcing a constitution on the Kaiser at some point in the late 10's/1920's have given them the ability to bypass the Junkers?

We must also remember that the German Austrians at this point still were suspicious of Germany (Protestant Junker Hell hole under the wrong emperor), however the Junkers sidelined, and Germany getting more democratic, while Austria isn't could change that.

[Drakan]

It all depends on the support of the Austrian people.

[Xavier]

Originally Posted by wiking

Would the Socialists forcing a constitution on the Kaiser at some point in the late 10's/1920's have given them the ability to bypass the Junkers?

1. The German Empire had a constitution
2. Juridically speaking, the powers granted to the German Emperor aren't much, if any, greater than those still granted to the current King of the Belgians or Queen of the UK.

The difference in actual power is mostly psychological, since a legislature which can convene of its own will and which has budget control and legislative initiative has the executive by the balls if only it can find a willing majority to do so. Assuming of course, that said executive can't use the military to, illegally in this case, keep control of things.

[lukedalton]

Germany will initially support the A-H against the Magyar rebellion/crackdown, but this risk to become the spark for a Great war analogue with the various nations fight for the corpse of A-H (and maybe the Ottoman Empire).
If all is avoided and a diplomatic solution is chosen, well Berlin with a lot of reluctance will take Austria (plus Tyrol) and Sudetenland and will try to inglobe the Czech, probably will try to reform the Triple Alliance with Italy (the big problem were with A-H not Germany) and Hungary so she will prop up their claims.

[Marko]

As far as I am aware the Habsburghs would need little support from the outside to perform the crack down of the Hungarian nobility, they would only need to unleash the Croats, Slovaks and the Romanians on them as the vanguard of the Imperial armies.

[wiking]

Originally Posted by Marko

As far as I am aware the Habsburghs would need little support from the outside to perform the crack down of the Hungarian nobility, they would only need to unleash the Croats, Slovaks and the Romanians on them as the vanguard of the Imperial armies.

They didn't even need this. The K.u.K. army had Plan U (Ungarn) to topple the nobility by occupying Budapest, which was formulated in 1905 when the Hungarian nobility was being exceptionally dickish, causing even the eternally patient Franz Josef to consider a military solution to the Hungarian problem. This caused the nobility to back down very quickly, but with FF it would be a matter of life and death for their power, so they pretty much have to fight, which won't go well, because the Honved was a joke and wasn't mobilized, while the Combined army was totally loyal to the Kaiser and was pretty capable of acting quickly, as its primary mission was keeping the regime in power. A little known reason for the early problems of the AH army was that it wasn't really designed for a war with foreign powers, but for maintaining order in AH; FF tried to find an officer that would reform the military to make it an actual army, but the K.u.K. was in the middle of modernizing when WW1 broke out.

So in 1917 the AH army would be best positioned to settle things quickly before violence started. The Honved would get disarmed quickly and Budapest occupied very quickly.

[Marko]

In such a scenario could we see Hungary be brought down a peg or two and the A-H reforming back into the Habsburgh Monarchy made out of

Grand Dutchy of Austria (England)*- western Hungary added as a autnomous provice with special privilegies to Slavs settled there
Kingdom of Hungary (Ireland) - territorialy reduced
Kingdom of Bohemia (N.Ireland) - predominatly German areas in Moravia alog the border with GDA added to GDA
Kingdom of Croatia (Scotland) - Bosnia added as well as predominatly Slovene areas along the border to reduce the number of Slovenes in GDA
Principality of Slovakia (Wales) - larger than OTL but without Pressburg
Principality of Transylvania (???) -
Principality of Galitzia (???) -

[Iori]

The Austro-Hungarian Empire is not destined to break apart or be parititoned nor was it 'dead' as so many people here seem to think.

To asnwer the question though, no, Germany would not attack A-H unless say somehow it went Socialist or something.

One big thing people need to realize is that ethno-national states were NOT advocated by most of Europe at the time, the idea of each ethnicity having its own country is entirely an American conctruct forced on Europe after WWI.
Essentially Russia, the Ottomans and Germany are not going to do something that endagers their own Multi-ethnic Empires just for a little more land.

[Detlef]

Originally Posted by wiking

They didn't even need this. The K.u.K. army had Plan U (Ungarn) to topple the nobility by occupying Budapest, which was formulated in 1905 when the Hungarian nobility was being exceptionally dickish, causing even the eternally patient Franz Josef to consider a military solution to the Hungarian problem. This caused the nobility to back down very quickly, but with FF it would be a matter of life and death for their power, so they pretty much have to fight, which won't go well, because the Honved was a joke and wasn't mobilized, while the Combined army was totally loyal to the Kaiser and was pretty capable of acting quickly, as its primary mission was keeping the regime in power. A little known reason for the early problems of the AH army was that it wasn't really designed for a war with foreign powers, but for maintaining order in AH; FF tried to find an officer that would reform the military to make it an actual army, but the K.u.K. was in the middle of modernizing when WW1 broke out.

So in 1917 the AH army would be best positioned to settle things quickly before violence started. The Honved would get disarmed quickly and Budapest occupied very quickly.

Not really sure here?
In 1917 the A-H army was pretty busy on the Italian front, the Balkan front and the Russian front.
Just where were those surplus supposed loyal A-H units to come from to "disarm the Honved and occupy Budapest"?

Doing it before WW1 is certainly possible. Doing it in 1917 seems pretty much impossible?

[wiking]

Originally Posted by Detlef

Not really sure here?
In 1917 the A-H army was pretty busy on the Italian front, the Balkan front and the Russian front.
Just where were those surplus supposed loyal A-H units to come from to "disarm the Honved and occupy Budapest"?

Doing it before WW1 is certainly possible. Doing it in 1917 seems pretty much impossible?

1917 without WW1. That assumes FF is still alive and no war is on.

[ingemann]

As many other have said, Germany are unlikely to partition Austria-Hungary. For Germany it wwould mean replacing a somewhat reliable partner for an weaker and more unreliable ones (Hungary) and it would give Germany a lot of troublesome minorities. Germany was better off with a surviving Austria-Hungary than a dead one.

[lukedalton]

Originally Posted by ingemann

As many other have said, Germany are unlikely to partition Austria-Hungary. For Germany it wwould mean replacing a somewhat reliable partner for an weaker and more unreliable ones (Hungary) and it would give Germany a lot of troublesome minorities. Germany was better off with a surviving Austria-Hungary than a dead one.

Sure, but the problem is not what Germany want but if A-H can survive on her own for much long. The fact that Germany partion A-H it will not be a prederminated geopolitical move, but more stop the costly and difficult life support and try to make the better from this situation...basically the lesser evil as they are not really happy to have so much catholics. Between the Magyar who want basically independence, the Hasburg who dream to bring back absolutism, the various ethinicity who want more right but don't want that the other have it...and nobody ready to compromise, plus every other nation who border it (except Germany) want a piece of it...things are not good for the future of A-H. The break down of the A-H empire can be the spark for a world war and the division an extreme attempt to stave off the war by an european congress.

[ingemann]

Originally Posted by lukedalton

Sure, but the problem is not what Germany want but if A-H can survive on her own for much long. The fact that Germany partion A-H it will not be a prederminated geopolitical move, but more stop the costly and difficult life support and try to make the better from this situation...basically the lesser evil as they are not really happy to have so much catholics. Between the Magyar who want basically independence, the Hasburg who dream to bring back absolutism, the various ethinicity who want more right but don't want that the other have it...and nobody ready to compromise, plus every other nation who border it (except Germany) want a piece of it...things are not good for the future of A-H. The break down of the A-H empire can be the spark for a world war and the division an extreme attempt to stave off the war by an european congress.

Belgium keep staggering around, I fail to see why Austria-Hungary couldn't survive. There was no significant rebellions in the last half century of the empire until the end of 4 year of conflict with attrocious losses. In fact a majority of the population prefered that the empire kept united as many of the minorities saw the alternatives to the Empire as worse. A potential collapse of Austria-Hungary will come from external pressure.