WI: Stalin assassinated in spring 1941

von hitchofen · Aug 8, 2012

who would take over? Molotov?

would U. Barbarossa be launched earlier - or go better?

would there be a military coup, perhaps

any suggestions?

Super Cicero · Aug 8, 2012

Barborossa would only be launched earlier if the Italians don't mess things up in Greece, or they don't invade Greece at all.

I doubt that the Red Army, which has been heavily purged only a few years before, is willing and capable of launching a coup.

Perhaps some form of collective leadership?

Cook · Aug 8, 2012

Super Cicero said:
Barborossa would only be launched earlier if the Italians don't mess things up in Greece, or they don't invade Greece at all.

The Balkans campaign played no part in the timing of Barbarossa; the invasion could not have started earlier because the ground was still too soft from the late rains.

SeanPdineen · Aug 8, 2012

g

Triumpherate Molotov, Beria, Vorishiilov. 1956 15 years early. Apology to the Tartar Chechens,

von hitchofen · Aug 8, 2012

thanks for your input guys, plenty to think about there

Beria, Voroshilov as USSR premier ~~- tempting - Malenkov perhaps as well?~~

Snake Featherston · Aug 8, 2012

Why is Stalin assassinated in 1941?

Badshah · Aug 8, 2012

Snake Featherston said:
Why is Stalin assassinated in 1941?

Well, there's a host of reasons Stalin could be assassinated. Maybe disgruntled survivors of the Holodomor, or the camps? Or even political rivals very suspicious of Stalin's network around the Soviet Union.

Tintin in the Land of the Soviets really did have an accurate portrayal on the way Stalin used to dress up cities in Ukraine during the famine to impress foreign dignitaries.

Nationalists from the Baltics or Ukraine, or Polish sympathizers. Stalin took it upon himself to make lots of enemies.

Snake Featherston · Aug 8, 2012

trollhole said:
Well, there's a host of reasons Stalin could be assassinated. Maybe disgruntled survivors of the Holodomor, or the camps? Or even political rivals very suspicious of Stalin's network around the Soviet Union.

Tintin in the Land of the Soviets really did have an accurate portrayal on the way Stalin used to dress up cities in Ukraine during the famine to impress foreign dignitaries.

Nationalists from the Baltics or Ukraine, or Polish sympathizers. Stalin took it upon himself to make lots of enemies.

Well, the problem with "Stalin assassinated" scenarios is that historically even after the fall of the Iron Curtain there has yet to be proven any plots, let alone attempts, that were genuine against Stalin's life. Now Lenin was subject to an attempt. Stalin? Never. Which indicates that there'd better be one good reason for any such attempt, and it needs to be more than "because it's convenient." Stalin was a very evil man and as a human being he was an asshole, so it's not like he was going to worry about hearts and minds at any point anyway.

aktarian · Aug 8, 2012

von hitchofen said:
would there be a military coup, perhaps

You know, I'm getting really tired of this idea. Red Army simply wasn't geared nor it had the mentality for assumption of power. Either directly or indirectly. They weren't thinking in that direction even before the purges, let alone after them. RA simply wasn't some third world military eager to play in political ring.

aktarian · Aug 8, 2012

Snake Featherston said:
Well, the problem with "Stalin assassinated" scenarios is that historically even after the fall of the Iron Curtain there has yet to be proven any plots, let alone attempts, that were genuine against Stalin's life. Now Lenin was subject to an attempt. Stalin? Never. Which indicates that there'd better be one good reason for any such attempt, and it needs to be more than "because it's convenient." Stalin was a very evil man and as a human being he was an asshole, so it's not like he was going to worry about hearts and minds at any point anyway.

I'm reminded of Molotov's quote in "Colonisation" series. He says something like "Stalin eliminated everybody he percieved as potential threat. It was inefficient way to run Soviet Union but in the end he died of natural causes in his bed."

Snake Featherston · Aug 8, 2012

aktarian said:
You know, I'm getting really tired of this idea. Red Army simply wasn't geared nor it had the mentality for assumption of power. Either directly or indirectly. They weren't thinking in that direction even before the purges, let alone after them. RA simply wasn't some third world military eager to play in political ring.

And of course if it did, Stalin *would* purge anyone so foolish as to make the attempt and have every degree imaginable of sympathy for this in the CPSU leadership.

aktarian · Aug 8, 2012

Snake Featherston said:
And of course if it did, Stalin *would* purge anyone so foolish as to make the attempt and have every degree imaginable of sympathy for this in the CPSU leadership.

Of course, but my point is that RA wasn't going to do it in the first place, purges or no purges. I'm just tired of this whole "in non democratic nations military is always gunning for supreme power" meme. While it's true for some, if not many, such nations it's hardly true for all. And SU was one where military was not going to do it.

Killer300 · Aug 8, 2012

Okay, this is a slight de-rail, but I thought of something.

If the army learned before hand that Stalin was going to do a purge, would they possibly kill him to prevent the purge? Or would they perhaps kill the NKVD to prevent the purge?

I'm just wondering about that, because it's a way the Soviet military would do something it wouldn't normally, which is coup the leader.

Living in Exile · Aug 8, 2012

There doesn't really need to be a reason for anyone to hate Stalin. There's always someone with the ghost of Jesus Christ telling them they're Anastasia and heir to the Tsar and they need to kill Stalin that could pop out of the woodwork. Prominent figures like that get killed all the time for reasons like that and no amount of purges can really stop it.

Halcyon Dayz · Aug 8, 2012

If you just need Stalin to be dead an accident will do the job just fine.

Drunk Stalin falls down a stairwell and breaks his neck.

von hitchofen · Aug 8, 2012

Halcyon Dayz said:
Drunk Stalin falls down a stairwell and breaks his neck.

even better

- he could even have a heart attack while on the job - or at his desk

aktarian said:
Red Army simply wasn't geared nor it had the mentality for assumption of power. Either directly or indirectly. They weren't thinking in that direction even before the purges, let alone after them. RA simply wasn't some third world military eager to play in political ring.

thanks for that - I temporarily had the daft idea the Red Army might fill the vacuum if he suddenly snuffed it - its just not gonna happen

aktarian · Aug 8, 2012

von hitchofen said:
thanks for that - I temporarily had the daft idea the Red Army might fill the vacuum if he suddenly snuffed it - its just not gonna happen

I think the most they would do is respond to somebody else trying to pull off a coup, say Beria with NKVD, but wouldn't try to be power behind the throne.

As for OP, it depends how Stalin's death is played out. If Hitler thinks SU is in even bigger mess than OTL he might get more arrogant. Specially if it turns out to be assassination. If not (or is covered up successfuly) it depends on how fast new ruler can establish himself and how stable he is.