Goldwater Beats LBJ

[Republican Jim]

As the title states - Barry Goldwater defeats Johnson in 1964.

The only major piece of legislation Johnson signs is The Civil Rights Act of 1964.

We're just going to say that Goldwater gets re-elected in '68, so what does he get accomplished in the eight years he's President.

Take this and run with it.


Possible Presidential Outlook:

34. Eisenhower/Nixon (R) 1953 -1961

35. JFK/LBJ (D) 1961 - Nov. 1963

36. LBJ/VACANT (D) Nov. 1963 - 1965

37. Goldwater/Miller (R) 1965 - 1973

38. Humphrey/Muskie?? (D) 1973 - Aug. 1977 (Humphrey announces he has terminal cancer and resigns on the 16th. Dies on Jan. 13, 1978)

39. Muskie/ Kennedy (D) Aug. 1977 - 1985

[RogueBeaver]

ASB under anything remotely resembling OTL circumstances.

[Republican Jim]

What does ASB mean? I'm new to this.

[RogueBeaver]

Originally Posted by Republican Jim

What does ASB mean? I'm new to this.

What I'm saying is that the scenario is so improbable as to be near-impossible under RL circumstances.

[Abhakhazia]

Originally Posted by Republican Jim

What does ASB mean? I'm new to this.

Alien Space Bats did it. It means basically impossible.

I don't know much about the 1960s politics, so it would be hard for me to say anything here. But not plausible, from what I understand

But when one of the two most conservative members here tell you that, it's not likely

[RogueBeaver]

Originally Posted by Abhakhazia

Alien Space Bats did it. It means basically impossible.

I don't know much about the 1960s politics, so it would be hard for me to say anything here.

1964: High tide of postwar liberalism. Booming economy. Country still in mourning for a highly liked president. Master pol as POTUS. Republicans go through a hyperdivisive primary and nominate a gaffe machine ("lob one [nuke] into the mens' room of the Kremlin") whose platform consists of flat taxing, privatizing Medicare/aid/TVA, using tactical nukes in Vietnam. At a train wreck of a convention.

Result? OTL.

[Republican Jim]

I guess you guys just lobbed one into the men's room on here. Lol. I like Goldwater and always wondered what his Presidency would've been like.

Always found LBJ a little too sketchy on everything - just my assessment from stuff I've read. Plus, my dad hated his guts.

[bguy]

Originally Posted by RogueBeaver

ASB under anything remotely resembling OTL circumstances.

What if the Bobby Baker scandal breaks earlier? A President Johnson who is bogged down trying to defend himself from accusations of corruption is going to be a lot weaker and likely won't be able to get his legislative agenda passed (which in turn means Goldwater never votes against the Civil Rights Act, so he is in a much stronger position.)

[Republican Jim]

Originally Posted by bguy

What if the Bobby Baker scandal breaks earlier? A President Johnson who is bogged down trying to defend himself from accusations of corruption is going to be a lot weaker and likely won't be able to get his legislative agenda passed (which in turn means Goldwater never votes against the Civil Rights Act, so he is in a much stronger position.)

That's not a half bad idea. I will have to read more into that scandal and then decide.

[Paul V McNutt]

Goldwater Coukd have beat Johnson in Rhodesia but not the United States.

[Linsanity]

LBJ was riding on Kennedy sympathy domestic successes, and a very weak yet overly principle opponent. For everything Goldwater threw at LBJ, LBJ got the last laugh. My favorite one is "In your heart you know he's right" (regarding Goldwater). The Johnson camp responded mocking his hawkish hot-head attitude with "In your heart you know he might." (Pull the nuclear trigger, so to speak.)

[Sicarius]

Hit Johnson with Bobby Baker, Luis Salas' earlier than OTL expose in Box 13, and an early MLK assassination leading to race riots leading to an alt Kent State scenario.

That might get you there.

[Super Cicero]

What if someone made a film similar to Oliver Stone's JFK, with its implication that LBJ had Kennedy killed, and it was released two weeks before election day?

[Delta Force]

Originally Posted by Super Cicero

What if someone made a film similar to Oliver Stone's JFK, with its implication that LBJ had Kennedy killed, and it was released two weeks before election day?

It would be so low profile as to have no impact at all, except by wrecking the careers of everyone involved in producing something that controversial so soon after Kennedy's death. That is assuming it is even possible to write, cast, produce, and release a movie (even a low budget one) in less than a year.

[arrowiv]

How would US recognition of Rhodesia in 1965 affect Anglo-American relations in a Goldwater administration?

[SonOfFreedom]

Yes it's plausible to get Goldwater the presidency against LBJ. The corruption being exposed plus the civil rights vote and touting of the friendship with JFK while exposing Johnson's racism. And you'd still get to keep MLK and RFK alive too.

[bguy]

Originally Posted by Linsanity

LBJ was riding on Kennedy sympathy domestic successes, and a very weak yet overly principle opponent.

How much of that still applies though if the Bobby Baker scandal breaks before Kennedy is assassinated?

OTL Johnson was able to persuade most of Kennedy's people to stay on which made it a lot easier for him to present himself as continuing the Kennedy legacy. But a Johnson who enters the White House while under a cloud of suspicion that he is a crook probably won't be able to convince those people to stay. Hard to look like you are carrying on the Kennedy legacy if all the Kennedy people are running away from you. And Johnson might even face his nightmare scenario of RFK deciding to challenge him for the presidential nomination. RFK already hates Johnson and hates public corruption, so if he thinks Johnson has been accepting kickbacks that might be enough to convince him to challenge Johnson for the nomination. LBJ can hardly run on Kennedy sympathy when Kennedy's own brother is running against him.

As for Johnson's legislative successes, again how much of that happens if the Bobby Baker scandal has already broken? OTL Johnson asserted titantic efforts to get the tax cut and civil rights bill passed. But here Johnson's energy is going to be needed to fight off the investigations against him (and any RFK nomination challenge.) And since Johnson is going to be dependent on his southern supporters in those battles, he's not going to be able to afford to alienate them by pushing for the tax cut and civil rights bills they oppose.

Goldwater is also a much stronger candidate here. If no civil rights bill gets to the floor, he never alienates moderate Republicans by voting against it, so the GOP should be much more unified going into the election. (William Scranton will likely agree to be Goldwater's veep under such circumstances.) Goldwater also has much more of a winning issue to run on if than he did OTL if Johnson is openly suspected of corruption. Goldwater can base his campaign on "restoring honor and integrity to the Oval Office" though he'll probably phrase it more like "throw the crook out". That's a powerful message, and it is going to be difficult for LBJ to defend against.

[Linsanity]

Originally Posted by bguy

How much of that still applies though if the Bobby Baker scandal breaks before Kennedy is assassinated?

OTL Johnson was able to persuade most of Kennedy's people to stay on which made it a lot easier for him to present himself as continuing the Kennedy legacy. But a Johnson who enters the White House while under a cloud of suspicion that he is a crook probably won't be able to convince those people to stay. Hard to look like you are carrying on the Kennedy legacy if all the Kennedy people are running away from you. And Johnson might even face his nightmare scenario of RFK deciding to challenge him for the presidential nomination. RFK already hates Johnson and hates public corruption, so if he thinks Johnson has been accepting kickbacks that might be enough to convince him to challenge Johnson for the nomination. LBJ can hardly run on Kennedy sympathy when Kennedy's own brother is running against him.

As for Johnson's legislative successes, again how much of that happens if the Bobby Baker scandal has already broken? OTL Johnson asserted titantic efforts to get the tax cut and civil rights bill passed. But here Johnson's energy is going to be needed to fight off the investigations against him (and any RFK nomination challenge.) And since Johnson is going to be dependent on his southern supporters in those battles, he's not going to be able to afford to alienate them by pushing for the tax cut and civil rights bills they oppose.

Goldwater is also a much stronger candidate here. If no civil rights bill gets to the floor, he never alienates moderate Republicans by voting against it, so the GOP should be much more unified going into the election. (William Scranton will likely agree to be Goldwater's veep under such circumstances.) Goldwater also has much more of a winning issue to run on if than he did OTL if Johnson is openly suspected of corruption. Goldwater can base his campaign on "restoring honor and integrity to the Oval Office" though he'll probably phrase it more like "throw the crook out". That's a powerful message, and it is going to be difficult for LBJ to defend against.

RFK's not running for President in 64. He wouldn't have been taken seriously by most, and he held no elected office previously. And I have no idea how you'd be able get the Baker scandal to real.

RFK was a very different man in 1964. He ran and won the Senate seat mostly because of the Democratic wave. There are two RFKs, and the one you're talkiń about is pre 11-22-63.

[bguy]

Originally Posted by Linsanity

RFK's not running for President in 64. He wouldn't have been taken seriously by most, and he held no elected office previously.

Well he's been Attorney General for three years and has substantial foreign policy experience as well, and he's the martyred President's brother. I'm not saying he would defeat Johnson for the nomination, but he could certainly make a credible run against him. (If the new Robert Caro book is correct, LBJ certainly feared RFK running against him even in 1964.)

And I have no idea how you'd be able get the Baker scandal to real.

Do you really think its that hard to blow up the Baker scandal? Donald Reynolds was testifying against Johnson at the Senate Rules Committee the very day Kennedy was assassinated. If that hearing happens two weeks earlier and isn't interrupted by news of the assassination then the accusations against LBJ will become national news. Johnson won't be able to hush them up like he was able to OTL in the aftermath of Kennedy's assassination, and the nation isn't going to rally around Johnson if they think he might be a criminal. There will certainly be a Congressional investigation and even if Reynolds himself is of questionable credibility, how well do you think Johnson's finances will stand up to close scrutiny?

RFK was a very different man in 1964. He ran and won the Senate seat mostly because of the Democratic wave. There are two RFKs, and the one you're talkiń about is pre 11-22-63.

Sure, but again per the Caro book, RFK's hatred for LBJ was the one thing that stayed constant about his character even after 11-22-63. Do you really think he is going to want a man suspected of taking bribes, a man he despises, carrying on his brother's legacy?

[JoeinOhio]

Definitely ASB....and I'd say the same thing about McGovern beating Nixon in 1972...Stevenson beating Eisenhower in the 1950s...or the Republicans beating FDR in the 1930s.