WI: Islam as a minority faith in its land of origin, but still widespread globally?

Nowadays, Buddhism and Christianity are global religions, though they are relatively minor faiths in their lands of origins. Buddhists are about 1% of South Asia's population, and Christians are about 2% of the population in Israel and Palestine. Both of their religions have most of their adherents outside of their homelands. Is there any way to have Islam do the same thing? That is, for Muslims to be a minority group in Arabia, but still be a widespread religion across the globe? Taking a cue from Buddhism in India, Muslims could be a major religion in Saudi Arabia or the Arabian Peninsula for a long while, but then decline substantially afterwards. In this case, while it still counts if Islam spreads historically through the Rashidun and Umayyad Caliphates before declining in Arabia, I'm looking for something more innovative than that. Bonus points if Islam has the same number of adherents as it does in our world today.

I was inspired by an old map I saw of Crusader states and Mongol khanates being set up in the Middle East, and I was thinking of the effects of a Buddhist/Christian Middle East, but I decided this wasn't too plausible and was a little late as a divergence.

Crusades drive on to Mecca while Islamic Merchants successfully influence Islamic states in India, East Africa, and Indonesia.

King of Malta said:

Crusades drive on to Mecca while Islamic Merchants successfully influence Islamic states in India, East Africa, and Indonesia.

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Are those Crusader states sustainable? I'm looking for Islam to be a minority religion in Arabia in alternate 2012, and the latter might not produce that many more Muslims than it historically did.

King of Malta said:

Crusades drive on to Mecca while Islamic Merchants successfully influence Islamic states in India, East Africa, and Indonesia.

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Having the Crusaders go all the way to Mecca would make the Muslims hate them a lot more than they actuall did.

Also, the Crusaders wouldn't even want to go to Mecca.

One important factor could be taking out the pillar of Islam that says that there needs to be one pilgrimage to Mecca, that would certainly mean there would be a smaller muslim population in what is otherwise only of historical importance.

Zuvarq said:

Having the Crusaders go all the way to Mecca would make the Muslims hate them a lot more than they actuall did.

Also, the Crusaders wouldn't even want to go to Mecca.

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Unless it was a Ethiopian Crusade.

Zuvarq said:

Having the Crusaders go all the way to Mecca would make the Muslims hate them a lot more than they actuall did.

Also, the Crusaders wouldn't even want to go to Mecca.

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Given a Christendom more concerned about taking out the faith from the heart and truly converting the Arabs to Catholicism, I bet you they would. Obviously some drastic changes would be needed, as they were only concerned with liberating Jerusalem and Bethlehem and other such holy sites (not to mention, the primary drive: luxury resources) but if the Papacy was actually more concerned with total conversion, such as the Caliphate was in its heyday, I don't see why this is unreasonable. The chance of their success is another story.

Perhaps a Papacy who supports a Byzantine campaign (as opposed to wanting to sack Constantinople) into the Arab heartland could be plausible.

I would say Mongols or a stronger Byzantine and Persia (less war between them) that limits Arab expansion and then drives them back to Oman and the coast of the Arabian Peninsula. From there the Arabs become great traders with Asia and Africa and spread Islam into a global religion.

As others have said, some massive Byzantine-wank or crusader-wank results in Egypt, the Levant, and the western half of Saudi Arabia being (re)Christianized. Islam survives in North Africa on the one hand, and Persia and the eastern Arabian peninsula on the other, and thereafter, Arab and Persian traders spread it to Africa and South/Southeast Asia. Not very plausible, but the best I can do.

willbell said:

One important factor could be taking out the pillar of Islam that says that there needs to be one pilgrimage to Mecca, that would certainly mean there would be a smaller muslim population in what is otherwise only of historical importance.

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Great idea, remove the Hajj and Mecca is no longer central to Islam. Of course it will remain a Holy City, but no more so than Jerusalem is to Christians. The problem is the Hajj is rooted in pre-Islamic tradition. The pagan (and Christian) Arab tribes would converge on Mecca to worship at the Kaaba, which at the time was filled with pagan idols. Somehow, we need Muhammad to condemn the Pilgrimage to Mecca. I don't know enough about the history of Islam to make a suggestion.

Well, instead Of being able to flee to Medina, maybe if Mohammad goes and sets up a community abroad and branches out from there.

I think with a PoD after the creation and solidification of the primary doctrines of Islam, it's not plausible to have Islam as a minority faith in its land of origin.

One way for this to happen (perhaps) is for the Jewish tribes of Mecca & Medina to be united and not be divided, some initially allying with Muhammed. Without his early victories, he is seen as less of a "winner" and Christian and Jewish "arabs" are combined >50% of Arabia...with some pagan leftovers at least early on...

willbell said:

One important factor could be taking out the pillar of Islam that says that there needs to be one pilgrimage to Mecca, that would certainly mean there would be a smaller muslim population in what is otherwise only of historical importance.

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Yelnoc said:

Great idea, remove the Hajj and Mecca is no longer central to Islam. Of course it will remain a Holy City, but no more so than Jerusalem is to Christians. The problem is the Hajj is rooted in pre-Islamic tradition. The pagan (and Christian) Arab tribes would converge on Mecca to worship at the Kaaba, which at the time was filled with pagan idols. Somehow, we need Muhammad to condemn the Pilgrimage to Mecca. I don't know enough about the history of Islam to make a suggestion.

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Why would the hajj have to be removed? Theoretically, couldn't it still be performed if Mecca and other Islamic holy sites were controlled by non-Muslim powers? In this world, if Mecca was never conquered by Muslims and Islam mostly developed outside of the Arabian Peninsula, there wouldn't be the historical trend of Muslim control over the Holy Sites.

WhatIsAUserName said:

Why would the hajj have to be removed? Theoretically, couldn't it still be performed if Mecca and other Islamic holy sites were controlled by non-Muslim powers? In this world, if Mecca was never conquered by Muslims and Islam mostly developed outside of the Arabian Peninsula, there wouldn't be the historical trend of Muslim control over the Holy Sites.

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Pilgrims alone will make it a majority, and a much larger number would take up permanent residence, the hajj definitely needs to go.

willbell said:

Pilgrims alone will make it a majority, and a much larger number would take up permanent residence, the hajj definitely needs to go.

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A majority on the entire Arabian Peninsula? When I talk about Islam as a minority faith, I'm talking about all of Arabia, not just Mecca or Medina. Besides, the hajj is a pilgrimage, and pilgrims don't usually settle down, especially not if Mecca is controlled by a non-Muslim power.

WhatIsAUserName said:

A majority on the entire Arabian Peninsula? When I talk about Islam as a minority faith, I'm talking about all of Arabia, not just Mecca or Medina. Besides, the hajj is a pilgrimage, and pilgrims don't usually settle down, especially not if Mecca is controlled by a non-Muslim power.

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At the very least it would greatly help get the desired end.

During the first wave of Islamic invasions, Persia and Byzantium are less exhausted, and the Muslims only experiance success in Egypt and north Africa. Eventually, Byzantium retakes Egypt, and Persia or Byzantium or both take an active interest in Arabia, possibly to prevent such an invasion ever coming from the region again. Thus Christianity and either Zoroastrianism or a Persian Christianity sect become the majority in Arabia. Meanwhile, the Muslims in North Africa flourish, and begin expanding in all directions. By modern times, All of Africa (possibly minus Egypt) is Muslim, as well as some portion of Iberia, and likely colonies in the new world, Australia, or Asia, plus minorities throughout the world. Arabia is Christian/Zoroastrian, with probably 3-5 percent being Islamic by 2012, and the Hajj has become much less important thanks to the difficulty that Medieval African Muslims would have had in reaching the area, and is often considered less of a doctrine and more of a tradition, like Christian pilgrimages today.