WI: Chen Youliang is Victorious

[Captain Jack]

What if Chen Youliang had defeated Zhu Yuanzhang at the Battle of Lake Poyang?

Lets say that ITTL Chen crushes Zhu's smaller fleet and Zhu himself is killed(this is basically what happened OTL just with the winners and losers switched). A Dahan(Chen's faction) victory would cement them as the leading rebel group and the one which would take over after the defeat of the Yuan. What then? What would China be like under the Dahan? What kind of polices would they have? What would Chen Youliang be like as emperor?

I should point out that I know very little about Chinese history but this just stuck out to me as a likely POD that could have major repercussions so if people have sources for this time period it would be very helpful.

[Captain Jack]

Nothing? No ideas at all?

[WhatIsAUserName]

I notice you're assuming Chen Youliang becomes Emperor. However, there are still other major rebels around, like Zhang Shicheng, as well as Yuan loyalists like Koke Temur. There's a few more minor players, such as Ming Yuzhen in Sichuan or Basalawarmi in Yunnan who could continue to cause trouble for Chen's new dynasty. In my opinion, while Chen Youliang is much more likely to take over all of China, it's not a given.

[Captain Jack]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

I notice you're assuming Chen Youliang becomes Emperor. However, there are still other major rebels around, like Zhang Shicheng, as well as Yuan loyalists like Koke Temur. There's a few more minor players, such as Ming Yuzhen in Sichuan or Basalawarmi in Yunnan who could continue to cause trouble for Chen's new dynasty. In my opinion, while Chen Youliang is much more likely to take over all of China, it's not a given.

Why is that? I was under the impression that after Zhu defeated Chen there were no rebel groups left that could posse a credible threat to him. Why should that be different for Chen? Or am I wrong and there WERE other groups that could challenge Ming?

[WhatIsAUserName]

Originally Posted by Captain Jack

Why is that? I was under the impression that after Zhu defeated Chen there were no rebel groups left that could posse a credible threat to him. Why should that be different for Chen? Or am I wrong and there WERE other groups that could challenge Ming?

No, that's not really the case. Chen and Zhu are the two biggest players, but Zhang Shicheng isn't exactly minor. He controls pretty much the richest territory in China, and his capital of Suzhou held out for 10 months, three years after Zhu won at Poyang Lake. Also, Zhang was more likely to ally with the Yuan remnant. The thing is, I have the feeling that Chen isn't as good of a leader as Zhu, and Zhang was definitely worse than Zhu, but I wouldn't just assume right from the start that Chen can conquer all of China. After all, Chen died during a battle he was leading. There's still the chance that he could die in a battle with some other warlord, like Fang Guozhen or Koke Temur, or something like that. The Yuan court was completely divided at the time, fighting each other instead of fighting the rebels, so the right combination of various factors could still remove Chen and leave China in a period of division. I would say that Chen is the best candidate to unite China if Zhu died, but Zhang is still a credible threat, and there's the chance that nobody succeeds.