WI: The New Territories Permanently Ceded

At the end of the First Opium War China permanently ceded Hong Kong to the UK. At the end of the Second war, Kowloon was added to that, and in 1898, the New Territories were leased to the UK for 99 years.
When 1997 rolled along (99 years since the lease was arranged) Britain ceded the whole lot because it would pretty much sever the city in two, plus the New Territories were the agricultural backbone of the city.

My question is, what if, at the end of the Second Opium War, the New Territories and Kowloon are permanently ceded to Britain.
What would the effects be on the remainder of the 19th and the 20th centuries*?

* I wasn't sure whether this should have gone into before or after 1900. The POD is before, but the effects are mostly after.:confused:
 
* I wasn't sure whether this should have gone into before or after 1900. The POD is before, but the effects are mostly after.:confused:

it belongs here dont worry, as the pod is what determines where a thread is placed

and i think if the Qing dynasty was more devestated by the first sino-japanese war itd be easy enough to convince them to hand the territories over permenantly for a good price

and even then, if that didnt happen, you could just have britian refuse to hand it back by the 97 dealine, with them saying that the republic of china had no claim to the territory as it was brought and leased by the Qing and as such, the republic had no claim to the territory as it was leased by a nation that is recognised by the british in those new territories under their protection...granted its a flimsy excuse but someone might have hte balls to say it to the chinese...or having the people of hong kong itself decid theyd rather stay under british sovereingty like gibraltar
 
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The British couldn't hang on to the place. If the Chinese wanted to overrun them, they could, and Britain would be too weak to do otherwise.

Unless the Americans were prepared to intervene.
 
That's an interesting POD. The urban development of HK during the 20th century was shaped by the temporary lease on the New Territories. Economic investment and urban buildup were concentrated on Kowloon and HK Island, while the New Territories were largely bereft of any large construction/infrastructure projects since the idea was that they'd go back to China anyway and investment there would be a waste if the land couldn't been retained. If the New Territories are permanently ceded to the British, I think there wouldn't be this tunnel vision centered around Kowloon and HK Island, since all those hundreds of islands in the New Territories would be just as profitable in terms of real estate value back when the level of urban development was largely minimal across all of Hong Kong at the turn of the last century.

In terms of agriculture, though, most food was/is imported from abroad, IIRC, largely from Southeast Asia and the mainland.
 
The British couldn't hang on to the place. If the Chinese wanted to overrun them, they could, and Britain would be too weak to do otherwise.

Unless the Americans were prepared to intervene.

In that case, HK might eventually be given independence, since there would be no mandate to return it to China. If there's relatively little pressure on the British to leave, comparable OTL, then Hong Kong might stay part of the British Empire well into the 21st century, though long-term full integration into the UK probably isn't going to happen.
 
In that case, HK might eventually be given independence, since there would be no mandate to return it to China. If there's relatively little pressure on the British to leave, comparable OTL, then Hong Kong might stay part of the British Empire well into the 21st century, though long-term full integration into the UK probably isn't going to happen.

its like i said before, it might go like gibraltar...relieing on great britian for defence perhaps, but has more autonomy than gibraltar and the falklands in foreign relations and internal affairs
 
The thing with Hong Kong, though, is that all of their fresh water has always been piped in from the mainland. The PRC at any time could've shut off water and reclaimed the colony using that as a threat.
 
The thing with Hong Kong, though, is that all of their fresh water has always been piped in from the mainland. The PRC at any time could've shut off water and reclaimed the colony using that as a threat.

massive desalination plants>?...or perhaps building undersea pipes or such to macau and sharing theres....they uo the demand from china who has to grumble about it but cant do shit cos well, macau already has a special zone
 
I'm not sure there would be too many major effects from this, and Hong Kong would go back to Chinese hands one way or another. Whether the government of China is a surviving Qing Dynasty, a surviving Republic of China, or even another People's Republic of China, there's always the possibility that Britain would want to hand back Hong Kong to China. Portugal's territories are a good example: the Portuguese didn't have to hand over Macau to China, but they chose to do so because they didn't really want it any more. Likewise, Goa was seized by India, and there was nothing Portugal could do.

If the New Territories were ceded permanently, it would mean fairly little, unless there's a massive change in local Hong Kong support for either independence or Great Britain. Even then, that might not be enough to stop Hong Kong from becoming part of China.
 
Desalinization is the way to go. It's never been attempted on this scale, but if they needed to, they could do it.

They'd have to weigh the massive costs of such a project against the benefits gained by retaining HK. If we assume that HK's population growth in this alternate timeline roughly matches that of OTL, it may be too costly to attempt. By 1996, the population had reached 6 412 937, which is a bit much for a handful of pricey desalinization plants to match.
 
Desalinization is the way to go. It's never been attempted on this scale, but if they needed to, they could do it.
Actualllyy, i think the saudis are doing it on about that scale. But theey have energy, literally, and money to burn, and no good access to fresh water. Im not sure how far the project was at that time, it might be more modern.
 
You can't do a Berlin Airlift for water. That's just...silly...
Well, just to calculate..........

If done at Emergency Plan levels, they need about 12,825,874 Galleons of water per day. That would be around ~257,000 5-Galleon containers.

So in a standard year, ~93,500,000 such containers would be required to meet the basic water requirements of the population, or 4,681,444,010 galleons.

I can see how that might be a problem. :eek:
 
What about the Sham Chun River, does it just not provide enough?

Since Britain will be keeping the New Territories permanently what about exploring for ground water?
 
How much land would the British have to nab in order to have enough fresh water to sustain a city on the scale of Hong Kong? Could/would they potentially take that much in a war?
 
Actualllyy, i think the saudis are doing it on about that scale. But theey have energy, literally, and money to burn, and no good access to fresh water. Im not sure how far the project was at that time, it might be more modern.

Well, just to calculate..........

If done at Emergency Plan levels, they need about 12,825,874 Galleons of water per day. That would be around ~257,000 5-Galleon containers.

So in a standard year, ~93,500,000 such containers would be required to meet the basic water requirements of the population, or 4,681,444,010 galleons.

I can see how that might be a problem. :eek:

Well, the saudis, as of 2010, produce 28 million m3 of water a day.

13 million gallons, ie 130 million pound, assuming imperial gallons, or 6500 tons a day, would be childs play in comparison.

Edit. About 1990 global desalination capabilities were only about a third of todays, but still about 15 million tonnes a day. Hks needs are insignificant in comparison.
 
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The British couldn't hang on to the place. If the Chinese wanted to overrun them, they could, and Britain would be too weak to do otherwise.

Unless the Americans were prepared to intervene.
The thing with Hong Kong, though, is that all of their fresh water has always been piped in from the mainland. The PRC at any time could've shut off water and reclaimed the colony using that as a threat.
This is premised on the idea that the PRC is just itching to piss off Britain, America, and NATO, which their relatively soft touch with Taiwan and OTL's Hong Kong shows is not the case. I suspect that China's treatment of ATL HK up to the present would be much like it was up to 1997.
 
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