So the Nazis decide to carry out Sealion; Do they fail at sea, or on the beaches?

[MattII]

And furthermore, the British were giving their pilots rest-rotation, which the Germans weren't, and the Germans still weren't able to keep up with their loses, which the British were (albeit probably only because they were getting many of their downed pilots back), and to such a degree that they came out of the Battle with more pilots than they'd started with.

[Cook]

Originally Posted by MattII

The Luftwaffe was never in a position to win...

For Sealion to have been given the go ahead the Luftwaffe had to have eliminated the RAF, otherwise it quite simply was never going to get the go-ahead. Hence Blackfox’s comment concerning the lack of realism on the Sandhurst war games: If the RAF still exists, Sealion never happens; therefore a war-game of Sealion with the RAF still in the fight is unrealistic.

[sharlin]

But that's the thing, the Luftwaffe lacked the strategic reach or power to be able to fully destroy the RAF, it could barely hit the North, it could not hit the far west and fighters could reach around London for a fairly short period of time.

The RAF could be suppressed but not destroyed.

[MattII]

I get the feeling Blackfox5 is talking about the Germans performing as they could have done ideally, rather than as they actually did. For example the Luftwaffe proved remarkably incapable of engaging ships, sinking only two British warships during the whole Norwegian Campaign, and five more at Dunkirk, despite being sitting targets. The Fallschirmjäger of 1940 would also have been a disappointment, they had serious limitations, especially in the early days, such as landing armed only with a pistol and a knife due to their harnesses, and the general lack of heavy weapons (most of the good stuff came from 1941 onwards and was not available in 1940). Similarly, the invasion barges, while reasonably seaworthy, were mostly unarmed, and would have proved fairly easy shots for the British Motor Gun Boats and Destroyers, which would only be compounded by the fact that the actual heavy cruisers and battleships wouldn't have been avaible (it was planned to send them into the Atlantic as a feint)

Additionally, there was little to no inter-force co-ordination, poor morale on the part of most of the German officers, and their intelligence assets were precisely 0 thanks to MI5.

[Cockroach]

Assuming the poms only have warning upon the Germans leaving port chances are part of the first wave gets ashore (even with DDs and CLs based in the Channel it'll likely take at least a couple of hours to get a coordinated force to sea) but most of it gets caught at sea or never leaves port.

[Dave Howery]

Originally Posted by MattII

I get the feeling Blackfox5 is talking about the Germans performing as they could have done ideally, rather than as they actually did. For example the Luftwaffe proved remarkably incapable of engaging ships, sinking only two British warships during the whole Norwegian Campaign, and five more at Dunkirk, despite being sitting targets. The Fallschirmjäger of 1940 would also have been a disappointment, they had serious limitations, especially in the early days, such as landing armed only with a pistol and a knife due to their harnesses, and the general lack of heavy weapons (most of the good stuff came from 1941 onwards and was not available in 1940). Similarly, the invasion barges, while reasonably seaworthy, were mostly unarmed, and would have proved fairly easy shots for the British Motor Gun Boats and Destroyers, which would only be compounded by the fact that the actual heavy cruisers and battleships wouldn't have been avaible (it was planned to send them into the Atlantic as a feint)

Additionally, there was little to no inter-force co-ordination, poor morale on the part of most of the German officers, and their intelligence assets were precisely 0 thanks to MI5.

I've often wondered if the only way for the Unmentionable Sea Mammal to succeed is if the Germans planned for it from the beginning... develop planes that could take on ships, develop a way to sow thick lanes of mines to close off part of the channel, develop more planes that had the range and power to take on the RAF and defeat them, develop real landing craft, give up all thoughts of fighting in N. Africa and Russia, etc. etc... but I doubt that Germany had the resources to do all that, and if they did, the Brits would know about it and respond accordingly...

[trekchu]

But the Brits would smell a rat as soon as news of this filters through.

This isn't a certain carrier and Scapa Flow related thread after all.

[Astrodragon]

I'm surprised at the people doing the 'it takes the RN 1-2 days to respond from Scapa' bit.

Look at what the RN actually had in the Channel and approaches area, please.

Hundreds of small craft (up to MTB size) basically owning the Channel area at night.
Destroyers and Cruisers held hours away from the Beachheads. A Battleship some3-4 hours away.

The Germans dont have days, they have hours at best (assuming we handwave away a night interception)

[sparky42]

Originally Posted by trekchu

But the Brits would smell a rat as soon as news of this filters through.

This isn't a certain carrier and Scapa Flow related thread after all.

You mean they haven't been drink lead paint after a Lobotomy?

[sharlin]

And the ballpine hammers have been kept well away from their hands so they can't muller them into their foreheads.

[brazen]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

I'm surprised at the people doing the 'it takes the RN 1-2 days to respond from Scapa' bit.

Look at what the RN actually had in the Channel and approaches area, please.

Hundreds of small craft (up to MTB size) basically owning the Channel area at night.
Destroyers and Cruisers held hours away from the Beachheads. A Battleship some3-4 hours away.

The Germans dont have days, they have hours at best (assuming we handwave away a night interception)

Agreed HMS Revenge was at Portsmouth as was one of the monitors, in fact Revenge was carrying out bombardments in the channel ports at the time. According to Peter Smiths book "Hold the Narrow Seas" she was kept there all the way through summer and autumn 1940 exactly for the reason of quick response to an invasion threat.

http://ww2today.com/11th-october-194...ards-cherbourg

Portland, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Dover, Folkstone, Harwich and Chatham are all within 2 to 4 hours steaming time for Destroyers and Cruisers, I would also expect everything that floats with a gun to be out amongst the invasion fleet, A/S trawlers with Depth charges are going to make an awful mess of invasion barges.

The Home fleet will not even have to weigh anchors in Scapa, coastal forces in the south would wipe out the invasion barges within 48 hours.

[Gannt the chartist]

Just so that people understand. The german dash across the channel would actually be 30 hours in an open boat praying to god the sea does not rise to a massive sea state 3 (leaves in constant motion, twigs move, wave height 60 cms) with only 80% of the crew required - that would be one trained seaman per barge if you are lucky. 4000 of the crew have been taken off warships to man the tranports.

At the end of that - which is planned to be at night, the 1000 or so barges are released, wheel parallel to the dark coast and turn in. the whole evolution being controlled by people SHOUTING VERY LOUDLY. You have never practiced this. Apart from 50 vessels in broad daylight in a flat calm in sheltered waters with less than a mile to travel. One capsizes, one looses its tow and drifts off, half the barges take more than an hour (after H Hour) to unload the troops, apart from the 10% that never got to shore at all. One capsized close inshore when the troops all rushed to one side to fend off the barge about to collide with it. Several did not so much land as ground broadside on so the troops had to climb over thee side.

Meanwhile the paras are dropped 15 miles from the target zone in hop fields with no plan for any resupply and no escort.

The highest ranking officer ashore will be a regiment commander, (one wonders why, but perhaps the generals had read the plan).

The first wave has no artillery or engineers.In 9 army landing zone the main defences are martello towers, impervious to small arms, and a 60 foot wide canal, oh and its a marsh.

the other army has to capture Dover, with rifles, there is a castley sort of thing there that overlooks the harbour.As well as the RN ships based at Dover. and 8x 6 inch guns

In the process of getting ashore the german soldier would be expected to take off his pack, then his life jacket then put the pack back on. Someone else had to pick them up unfortunately the navy had been told it was not them, and the army had been told it was not them, and there were only enough for the first wave unless the lifejackets were ferried back.

And for some reason the first wave includes 4000 horses.

[MattII]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Hundreds of small craft (up to MTB size) basically owning the Channel area at night.
Destroyers and Cruisers held hours away from the Beachheads. A Battleship some3-4 hours away.

They had a few destroyers in Dover, ie, less than a quarter-hour away from the best landing sites, and since most of the German destroyers (the few that they had) would have been out in the Atlantic, then they'd be relying relying on E- and R-Boats and the luftwaffe to deal with the British forces. The Battleships (Hood and the Nelrods) were at Rosyth though, about 400 nmi away so they'd have taken on the order of 14 (Hood) and 17 (Nelrods) hours to steam south.

Mind you, I think it's a bit of a mistake to assume the RAF would be entirely absent, the Spitfire would probably have been pulled north, yes, but some of the Hurricane squadrons could have been dispersed to less likely locations, which would have come as a nasty surprise to the Germans as would the numerous other aircraft that would still be operating.

[trekchu]

We should kidnap CalBear and force him to write this thing.

[Bureaucromancer]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

I'm surprised at the people doing the 'it takes the RN 1-2 days to respond from Scapa' bit.

Look at what the RN actually had in the Channel and approaches area, please.

Hundreds of small craft (up to MTB size) basically owning the Channel area at night.
Destroyers and Cruisers held hours away from the Beachheads. A Battleship some3-4 hours away.

The Germans dont have days, they have hours at best (assuming we handwave away a night interception)

There's some truth here, but those small craft never did face the full weight of the Luftwaffe or Kriegsmarine and the 1-2 day timeline is supported by the Sandhurst war games.

On the status of the RAF thing I think the question really does need to be answered both ways. The Sandhurst games assumed that air superiority wouldn't be achieved, and that seems quite reasonable between the sheer impossibility of the Luftwaffe achieving it and the kind of mistakes Hitler was prone to make (albeit more later in the war than in 1940). On the other hand a scenario assuming German destruction of the RAF looks not so much at what Sea Lion would have been had Hitler ordered it and damn the costs, but at what was planned and hoped for by German planning. Really it depends what you are trying to achieve by considering the Unmentionable Sea Mammal.

[hairysamarian]

Originally Posted by Dave Howery

I've often wondered if the only way for the Unmentionable Sea Mammal to succeed is if the Germans planned for it from the beginning... develop planes that could take on ships, develop a way to sow thick lanes of mines t

For success to be possible, it would have had to have been the German objective from before the war, with all the design and doctrine changes that includes. Different naval doctrine, different aircraft, and so forth. Once the war has broken out, it's too late for Germany to make the attempt. And of course, any pre-war evidence of such preparation would certainly get the UK's attention and they could be expected to adapt.

[RPW@Cy]

Originally Posted by trekchu

We should kidnap CalBear and force him to write this thing.

It's already been done, though not by CalBear -

A Better Show in 1940

[Gunnarnz]

Originally Posted by sharlin

The RN's not gonna go HUURRRP DURP and charge in without mine sweepers.

Perhaps not, but clearing a channel in a minefield does take time. And it takes even longer to organise the minesweeping forces, and get them where they're needed (a destroyer or a cruiser might manage 30 knots, but not a converted trawler).
Please don't for a minute imagine that I'm saying it's possible for the Germans to lay an impenetrable minefield to seal off the channel. Nor do I think that the Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine, coastal batteries, or anything else is likely to be able to prevent the invasion fleet getting taken apart by the RN.
It's just that slowly and carefully clearing a minefield, under fire from the afore mentioned Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine, etc, might not be the most appropriate response to this situation. Under the circumstances the RN might be justified in saying "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" and just sailing through whatever U-boat or minefield barriers are in play. Time is precious, after all, and if there was ever an occasion for throwing everything they had into the fight this would surely be it.

[brazen]

Originally Posted by Gunnarnz

Perhaps not, but clearing a channel in a minefield does take time. And it takes even longer to organise the minesweeping forces, and get them where they're needed (a destroyer or a cruiser might manage 30 knots, but not a converted trawler).
Please don't for a minute imagine that I'm saying it's possible for the Germans to lay an impenetrable minefield to seal off the channel. Nor do I think that the Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine, coastal batteries, or anything else is likely to be able to prevent the invasion fleet getting taken apart by the RN.
It's just that slowly and carefully clearing a minefield, under fire from the afore mentioned Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine, etc, might not be the most appropriate response to this situation. Under the circumstances the RN might be justified in saying "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" and just sailing through whatever U-boat or minefield barriers are in play. Time is precious, after all, and if there was ever an occasion for throwing everything they had into the fight this would surely be it.

Most RN destroyers were fitted with TSDS gear for higher speed mine sweeping, they only have to sweep a channel to get to the barges.

The thought that the RN wouldn't notice large mine fields being sowed quite close to possible landing beaches without clearing or counter mining is almost laughable.

[patch_g]

The original question was would the Germans fail on land or at sea. I think the Germans would probably succeed on land but fail at sea. I reckon the German invasion forces of September 1940 would stand a good chance of defeating the British and Empire forces in Britain. Fortunately for the British, there's no way to get the German forces to England in September 1940 and keep them adequately supplied. A British admiral from the Napoleonic wars put it best. "I'm not saying they can't come. I'm just saying they can't come by sea."
As an intellectual exercise, one day I want to try a gamed version of Sealion with only the land forces involved.