Alternate reasons for a WWI in 1915

Berus

In my Timeline franz ferdinand won't get assassinated and gets emperor after franz josephs death. However i would need a alternate reason for a world war, and this time it should be one year later than OTL, in 1915.
The world war in this timeline however should have following alliances:
Central powers:
German empire
Austria Hungary
Bulgaria
Ottoman Empire
Romania

Central Powers:
UK
France
Russia
Serbia
Italy
Portugal
Belgium
 

Catspoke

I would go for something happening in Turkey, an uprising in Armenia, the Turks crush brutally, the Russians intervene, etc...

Some battle over royal sucession in Rommania or Portugal or someplace strategic.

German and British agree to split the Portugese colonies, but this breaks down in the process of splitting this up.

Really though it may be too late by then, Britain and Germany are solving their problems, Russia is getting stronger every year, and a few of Germanies colonies are getting valuable, why risk a war when every body is getting richer.
 

Berus

I thought that there could indeed be a assasination attempt on franz ferdinand, but this time not in sarajevo but during his journey to the Artstetten Castle, a serbian nationalist tried to kill franz ferdinand but failed, the serb had connections to the serbian govnerment and serbian officers. Franz ferdinand is angered and most austrians officers advocate a war with Serbia and to annex it, to solve the serbian problem once and for all, under Austrian reign, they can control the serbians much better. Russia declares war to Austria, Germany helps Austria etc
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
Catspoke said:
I would go for something happening in Turkey, an uprising in Armenia, the Turks crush brutally, the Russians intervene, etc...
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That would not cause a World War; the Ottoman Empire was not allied with anyone and without the imminence of war to motivate them, no-one wanted to be allied with them.
Catspoke said:
German and British agree to split the Portugese colonies, but this breaks down in the process of splitting this up.
Click to expand...
Britain was a traditional ally of Portugal. Britain was also about to face in internal revolt concerning Home Rule.
Catspoke said:
…why risk a war when everybody is getting richer?
Click to expand...
The question is redundant; no-one planned the First World War (except possibly the Serbian Army’s military intelligence department), they stumbled into it through a combination of incompetency and paranoia.
 

Berus

how about another, but failed assasination attempt on franz ferdinand ?

what thread do you mean grey wolf ?
 
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Richter von Manthofen

Why must it be an assassination attempt?

If the allances are set as you presented I ghave a hard time to see why...

Bulgaria had a strong interest to get a revision of the second Balkans war.

Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf might get his way with an preemptive strike vs Serbia, but I am not convinced Franz Ferdinand would allow it. But its an possibility.

Austria and Bulgaria attack Serbia.

Russia declares war on Austria

Germany on Russia and you basically get the same chain of events as OTL.

As Russia DOWs on Austria you might get even Italy on the side of the CPs (unlikely as they were dependent on British coal).

Can't see Romania on CPs side - you would need a strong incentive?

Greece? the King was leaning to Germany, so you might even have Greece being part of the initial anti Serb coalition ...
 

KeeCoyote

All it takes is something happening in the area were Austria-Hungry to start. It seems all large wars in Europe start there.
 

Tocomocho

For Romania to join the CPs the war would actually have to break earlier than IOTL. The more time passed, the more it became pro-Entente.

On the other hand - would Britain still join if it has a war already going in Ireland between pro and anti Home Rule factions?
 

Catspoke

Cook said:
That would not cause a World War; the Ottoman Empire was not allied with anyone and without the imminence of war to motivate them, no-one wanted to be allied with them.

Britain was a traditional ally of Portugal. Britain was also about to face in internal revolt concerning Home Rule.

The question is redundant; no-one planned the First World War (except possibly the Serbian Army’s military intelligence department), they stumbled into it through a combination of incompetency and paranoia.
Click to expand...

Good points, but I think you can come up with plausable scenerios where those things can happen.

Germany would have Baghdad rail interests and a military mission in Istanbul whose prestige she would want to protect. If Germany thought it was in her best interest to defeat Russia before it was to late, and its getting late, she would have an extra ally here from the beginning.

Britain and Germany were close to an agreement OTL before war intervened. Portugal has no modern value as an ally (Spain/France no longer the traditional enemy). Have Germany satisy fire her appetite for expansion and pick up some more bases yourself. Combine with a naval agreement and Britain could increase her security. Have British popular opinion support the Portugese once the agreement is released, Britain wants to back out, But the Germans are already taking over, etc...

German (and Austrian) military interests certainly took avantage of the OTL situation to push war, with a different run up to war, i.e. developing more slowly, or with just another year to think about war plans, maybe war just can't happen. Any war against Britain and Russia and France, is certainly another seven years war so maybe German leadership figures out one of those wouldn't be a good idea. I don't think any other powers or their leadership is going to aggressively seek war.
 
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