AHC: Earliest possible Nazi defeat

[Magnum]

Ok, getting a little bored at work, so I decided to share this little challenge with you guys.

Your challange, should you choose to accept it, is to have a formal surrender by the Nazi government as soon as possible, with a POD the day Soviet forces linked up at Kalach*, trapping the 6th army in Stalingrad.

Restrictions:
- keep it somewhat realistic, even if improbable to a degree
- no premature German political collapse (so no succesful Valkyrie-type plots or assassinations of Hitler followed by civil war or surrender)
- no ASB events such as asteroids, supervolcanoes or the like
- no Operation Vegetarian

Earliest victory wins.

Have fun !


*tried to find the iconic picture of the reenactement the soviets did for the cameras, but couldn't find one.

[Shaby]

So, we are not allowed to kill off the greatest obstacle to surrender, yet to devise a surrender. All rightie then.

Could the wholesale encirclement and defeat of AG South do the trick? AG A cut off in Caucasus and surrenders at roughly the same time as 6th Army in Stalingrad.

March 1943 - Red Army mounts an operation across Dnieper, and reach Kharkov by April, Allies secure North African coast, last Axis forces surrender in Tripoli, Rommel wounded and evacuated to Sicily by airplane
April 1943 - German AG Center attacked from the flank and 'shortens the front
May 1st, 1943 Leningrad siege lifted
May 15th - Finland asks for cease fire
June 6th - Allies land in Sicily
June 15th, Italy asks for cease fire, surrenders a week later, German forces retreat from Italy to hold Alpine line, Mussolini flee to Germany
June 1943 - Crimea cleared, Soviet capture Kiev, advance to Odessa
June 1943 - Germans form new AG South of forces from France and Italy
August 1943 - United States troops land in France
August 23rd Paris captured
September - Germans redeploy some troops from East front to West
September 7th US and UK troops reach Rhine, German front starts falling apart
September 10th Bomber offensive halts oil production
October - AG Center surrounded, only remnants of divisions escape on foot
Soviets reach Warsaw by December, first info on Concentration camps released
Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary defect Axis, call in Soviet troops
January 1944 Soviet and American troops link in Trieste, joint offensive on Wien
Soviets reach Oder in february, Allies reach Cologne
April 12th, 1944 - Hitler commits suicide in Berlin surrounded by Soviets from the East and US troops from the west
April 15th, Goering signs surrender in Nuernberg.

Just off top of my head. Timeline might be a bit rushed, though.

[Kalan]

The allies never seriously consider the enormous gamble known as market garden. Instead they focus on clearing the harbour of Antwerpen, by sealing of the south Beveland penninsula. Not only does this allow them to start using Antwerpen three months ahead of OTL but it also traps fifteenth german army, which contained over half of the forces at the western front.

While the fifteenth army is destroyed by the Canadian first army and the allied airforce, a steady stream of allied reinforcments arrive at Antwerpen itself.

Without the fifteenth army the german defenses at the West wall are undermanned and cannot be prepared in time for the next phase of the allied advance which has now much shorter supply lines. The allies rapidly liberate all of Belgium and advance into the Rhineland which is (as mentionend before) only defended by few troops. Hitlers dreams of the Ardennenoffensive stay just that as every soldier is needed to prevent the Allies from crossing the Rhine.

By mid october the allies have taken the whole west bank of the Rhine and are poised to cross in force. They succed and manage to capture the Ruhr area shuting of the German war industry. As the Russians are still outside of Warsaw, the Western allies decide to advance towards Berlin, which the take by the end of February 1945.

The war in Europe ends two months earlier.

[Richter von Manthofen]

THEY WILL NEVER SURRENDER!

[Gannt the chartist]

!940, Germans stick with Schlieffen mk 2 which runs into the Dyle line and gets basically stuck. While the Germans make progress there is nothing spectacular, France does not fold and gets rid of some of its less successful doctrines, mostly in the air force. Italy stays out. The western front stays more or less in place extending the Maginot line to the sea.

1941. Western front is largely German attacking and being contained either by strong AT/AA defences or mobile reserves. The USSR makes increasingly onerous demands on Germany for supplies - hard cash, technology transfers, diplomatic free hand in eastern Europe and Germany reacts by fortifying the west (Hindenburg line mk 2) and launching a pre-emptive war against the USSR which fails OR the same and Western Allies start subverting the Balkan states into believing that the Nazi’s are soft on communism and raise up the central and eastern European minor powers (and Italy probably) drawing off German manpower into marginal theatres.

Late 1942 Wallies crack the new Hindenburg line and the unmotorised Wehrmacht is unable to easily contain the breakthrough, which turns into a disaster when the USSR launches an attack in the east. Believing the collapse of Germany imminent the remaining European neutrals (except Ireland) declare war on Germany and grab land.

Hitler gives standfast orders and declares various cities to be fortresses and large but immobile German forces are bypassed in western Europe and parts of Belarus. Local commanders in Western Europe are torn between fighting on and their inability to feed the citizenry, several local surrenders occur following food riots.

Uncertain as to the reliability of anti Nazi Berlin Hitler relocates to the Alpine Redoubt, where the SS guards are overrun by Italian Alpini.

Internecine bickering begins within the remaining Nazi leadership over who is the new Fuhrer (could be Hess, could be Goering) while allied and slightly later Russian forces overrun Germany. The military leadership - including Goering request an armistice.

Treated reasonably well by Mussolini but with increasing evidence of atrocities in the East coming to light, and being believed, Hitler seeks political asylum in Argentina and retrains as a dentist.

[Snake Featherston]

1940 goes badly, the German army is destroyed in the Ruhr campaign of 1941-2, the Soviets pull the red string of German finance, Germany disintegrates and Hitler commits suicide rather than fall into the hands of either army. War ends circa 1943.

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

1940 goes badly, the German army is destroyed in the Ruhr campaign of 1941-2, the Soviets pull the red string of German finance, Germany disintegrates and Hitler commits suicide rather than fall into the hands of either army. War ends circa 1943.

I agree, have the French change their doctraine starting in 1938 or so and Germany can well run into trouble and get "hung up" in France. Italy won't enter the war as Mussolini did so only because it looked like the Allies were losing and he was trying to grab land while the grabbing was good. The combined GDP of France and the British Empire is much larger than Germany's and could well make enough weapons to prevent Germany from taking Paris. Stalin see that as a sign of weaknesss and either asks for more and more to stay neutral or worse attacks so the USSR can grab land while the grabbing is good.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

I agree, have the French change their doctraine starting in 1938 or so and Germany can well run into trouble and get "hung up" in France. Italy won't enter the war as Mussolini did so only because it looked like the Allies were losing and he was trying to grab land while the grabbing was good. The combined GDP of France and the British Empire is much larger than Germany's and could well make enough weapons to prevent Germany from taking Paris. Stalin see that as a sign of weaknesss and either asks for more and more to stay neutral or worse attacks so the USSR can grab land while the grabbing is good.

It would be relatively easier for either the generals to get what they want and replay the Schlieffen Plan with Panzers (in which case the German army's offensive power is torn up right out of the starting gate and the Allies launch their own offensive in 1941) or to have the gamble in the Ardennes fall apart due to better French preparation in the region and thus the Allies completely unintentionally bugger the whole German offensive without realizing it.

1940 was an amazing, overwhelming victory built on a narrow, paper-thin foundation. Cut the paper, the victory falls apart, and as relatively little needs to change for that to happen.....

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

It would be relatively easier for either the generals to get what they want and replay the Schlieffen Plan with Panzers (in which case the German army's offensive power is torn up right out of the starting gate and the Allies launch their own offensive in 1941) or to have the gamble in the Ardennes fall apart due to better French preparation in the region and thus the Allies completely unintentionally bugger the whole German offensive without realizing it.

1940 was an amazing, overwhelming victory built on a narrow, paper-thin foundation. Cut the paper, the victory falls apart, and as relatively little needs to change for that to happen.....

Exactly, the one way I thought of is having France change its outdated doctraine. There are others.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

Exactly, the one way I thought of is having France change its outdated doctraine. There are others.

From an AH perspective I actually like the Ardennes Offensive goes horribly wrong variant as it's much more pleasing. For Want of a Nail the Soviet Empire is averted and only after WWII do the Allies realize what they really did. The fighting in Belgium in all probability would see the start of Nazi withdrawals when they realize what the Ardennes offensive means for their overall war effort, leaving the Allies scratching their heads and going "Huh?".

[miguelrj]

Wasn't this AHC bound by a 1942 PoD limitation?
If one ignores it one can always make the Allies invade Germany when Germany is busy invading Poland...

[BlairWitch749]

with the operation uranus pod spec'ed in the op

1. Stalin listens to Zhukov about Saturn being more important than challenging Manstein's relief forces in a slogging match
2. Manstein breaks the stalingrad encirclement but burns out his forces and logistic tail in doing so
3. Saturn goes ahead full steam and crushes the italian 8th army and advances faster than AG Don, AG A and 6th army can retreat; and beats them to rostov severing all supply lines and compelling the surrender of 40 German divisions

North Africa goes Otlish.... POD is too close to torch to make a decisive change there

Huskey is launched under Patton's original plan plus landing the 1st infantry division and 3 tank battalions at calabria to isolate the two strong german divisions on the island and compel their surrender

Avalanche is launched at citivecchia trapping all forces south of rome with only mop up work done by two corps of 8th army in a reduced priority operation baytown and slapstick

allies stop at gothic line shift forces and launch dragoon against the weaker part of the atlantic wall and shift every possible division through toulon and marsailles

war over 9/1/44

[jmc247]

Originally Posted by BlairWitch749

with the operation uranus pod spec'ed in the op

1. Stalin listens to Zhukov about Saturn being more important than challenging Manstein's relief forces in a slogging match
2. Manstein breaks the stalingrad encirclement but burns out his forces and logistic tail in doing so
3. Saturn goes ahead full steam and crushes the italian 8th army and advances faster than AG Don, AG A and 6th army can retreat; and beats them to rostov severing all supply lines and compelling the surrender of 40 German divisions

North Africa goes Otlish.... POD is too close to torch to make a decisive change there

Huskey is launched under Patton's original plan plus landing the 1st infantry division and 3 tank battalions at calabria to isolate the two strong german divisions on the island and compel their surrender

Avalanche is launched at citivecchia trapping all forces south of rome with only mop up work done by two corps of 8th army in a reduced priority operation baytown and slapstick

allies stop at gothic line shift forces and launch dragoon against the weaker part of the atlantic wall and shift every possible division through toulon and marsailles

war over 9/1/44

A good list.

I would also add that a more decisive battle in France like if Rommel had sent all the divisions in the West chugging toward Normandy when Hitler was passed out on drugs. Many more Western Allied troops would have died at the beaches, but between the Allied big guns from their ships (the first time they used them that I seem to recall in the European theater) and Allied air power the German divisions would have been chewed up so no long slog in France.

[BlairWitch749]

Originally Posted by jmc247

A good list.

I would also add that a more decisive battle in France like if Rommel had sent all the divisions in the West chugging toward Normandy when Hitler was passed out on drugs. Many more Western Allied troops would have died at the beaches, but between the Allied big guns from their ships (the first time they used them that I seem to recall in the European theater) and Allied air power the German divisions would have been chewed up so no long slog in France.

there is also not royally screwing up the battle of falaise were the allies could have compelled the surrender of every field division of any value in france and been driving through germany unopposed by september as well

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by BlairWitch749

there is also not royally screwing up the battle of falaise were the allies could have compelled the surrender of every field division of any value in france and been driving through germany unopposed by september as well

Not with their OTL logistics they won't be.

[RousseauX]

Negotiated peace/capitulation ~1941-42 frame.

Germany's 1940 victory was based on one big gamble with everything put behind it, and the economic necessity essentially forced a reduction in German warmaking capacity vice-verse the allies at every point. If the Ardennes offensive fails then Germany will fall further and further behind the allies (who were outproducing them). And in all likelihood there might have being a drop in -absolute- German war production due to lack of resources. Simply put, Germany will lose in a war of attrition against France/Britain.

Also, if Stalin cuts off resource transfers to Germany then it's pretty much game over.

[Shaby]

Originally Posted by RousseauX

Negotiated peace/capitulation ~1941-42 frame.

Germany's 1940 victory was based on one big gamble with everything put behind it, and the economic necessity essentially forced a reduction in German warmaking capacity vice-verse the allies at every point. If the Ardennes offensive fails then Germany will fall further and further behind the allies (who were outproducing them). And in all likelihood there might have being a drop in -absolute- German war production due to lack of resources. Simply put, Germany will lose in a war of attrition against France/Britain.

Also, if Stalin cuts off resource transfers to Germany then it's pretty much game over.

But POD is Operation Uranus, so nothing before this point.

[BlairWitch749]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Not with their OTL logistics they won't be.

if patton hadn't been ordered to stop there wouldn't have been a logistic problem as there wouldn't have been any worthwhile field divisions opposing them to suck up resources ie devote more to fuel and parts less to ammo

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by BlairWitch749

if patton hadn't been ordered to stop there wouldn't have been a logistic problem as there wouldn't have been any worthwhile field divisions opposing them to suck up resources ie devote more to fuel and parts less to ammo

There would have been logistical problems regardless. Keep in mind that even with the failure to close the Falaise Gap that the Allies were slowed down far more by the difficulty in shipping supplies and fuel than the decayed remnants of the SS and Wehrmacht opposing them.

[BlairWitch749]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

There would have been logistical problems regardless. Keep in mind that even with the failure to close the Falaise Gap that the Allies were slowed down far more by the difficulty in shipping supplies and fuel than the decayed remnants of the SS and Wehrmacht opposing them.

If the 15th army was completely destroyed at Falaise, resistance at the ports would have been greatly reduced allowing Monty to capture antwerp and other points earlier with less damage