The What-if China/Korea Bonanza Thread

[Medicus Verni]

Originally Posted by FDW

There's also the fact that Song generally had a vigorous "civil society" (If you could call it that) that might not stand for something like that, especially the confucian scholars.

Agreed, victors in these cases often turn to the influential intelligentsia to secure their rule, and to do that they would definitely have to don the 'ruler' outfit and show some willingness not to through brute force.

Speaking of Song, it suffered from the loss of a natural geographical barrier that was the Sixteen Prefectures along with the military fortifications in the area, thus was much more subject to nomadic incursions.

I have been thinking of an earlier POD in which the Emperor Shizong of Later Zhou managed to pull off his reconquest instead of succumbing to illness at 38 (in the middle of the campaign no less). That way, the central plain would be less vulnerable to nomads (and there would be no need to plant trees around Kaifeng for strategic purposes). Of course then, Song may well be butterflied entirely out of existence, but what do you think other then that?

Btw, these are some previous threads on warring states and the three kingdoms that may be relevant to our purposes.

[WhatIsAUserName]

That would depend on how well the Later Zhou perform against the Northern Han and the Liao Dynasty. I have no doubts that Shizong can conquer the former, but I don't know why his performance would be that much better against the latter. I'm not sure what Zhou Shizong had that Song Taizu and Taizong didn't. After all, the Liao already obtained the Sixteen Prefectures in 937, before the Later Zhou came into existence.

[Medicus Verni]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

That would depend on how well the Later Zhou perform against the Northern Han and the Liao Dynasty. I have no doubts that Shizong can conquer the former, but I don't know why his performance would be that much better against the latter. I'm not sure what Zhou Shizong had that Song Taizu and Taizong didn't. After all, the Liao already obtained the Sixteen Prefectures in 937, before the Later Zhou came into existence.

I am betting on it because Zhou Shizong is arguably one of the more, if not most competent emperor during the Five Dynasty period. His martial prowess notwithstanding , I believe his restorative policies at least lay the groundwork for the stability of early Song.

Btw, my previous post was referring to the northern campaign he was making in 959, in which he intended to retake the Sixteen Prefectures from Liao. He was making good progress, taking several prefectures in Hebei, but fell ill just before he mounted a siege on Youzhou. Of course, you make a fair point in that the prefectures were lost earlier, but I prefer some twists if plausible, rather than having them not ceded to Liao by Shi Jingtang in the first place.

[Petike]

Awesome thread !

This is definitely going into the POD resource section.

[WhatIsAUserName]

A Han Dynasty idea with potentially major effect on the Three Kingdoms: what if Cao Cao lost at Guandu against Yuan Shao? This may or may not involve Cao Cao's death, since he did lead troops personally. If he lost, would we still see a Three Kingdoms scenario, with Yuan instead of Cao as the greatest power in the north, or would we see four states?

[FDW]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

A Han Dynasty idea with potentially major effect on the Three Kingdoms: what if Cao Cao lost at Guandu against Yuan Shao? This may or may not involve Cao Cao's death, since he did lead troops personally. If he lost, would we still see a Three Kingdoms scenario, with Yuan instead of Cao as the greatest power in the north, or would we see four states?

I'm inclined to say four states.

[Grouchio]

Any possible scenarios for the 5 Dynasties and 10 Kingdoms period?

[WhatIsAUserName]

Originally Posted by Grouchio

Any possible scenarios for the 5 Dynasties and 10 Kingdoms period?

There's one right on this page with the Later Zhou.

Anways, scenarios for this period are probably going to see the northern Dynasties reunite China at the expense of the southern Kingdoms. Though this period could conceivably lead to a long period of fragmentation, perhaps more than a century, I still think unification is more likely. Whether or not the Khitans form the Liao and take the Sixteen Prefectures depends on the scenario.

However, the possible effects of Shatuo Turks unifying China will be vast. The Later Tang have some chance, the Later Jin less so, and the Later Han have basically no chance.

[FDW]

Originally Posted by Grouchio

Any possible scenarios for the 5 Dynasties and 10 Kingdoms period?

Maybe having Balhae survive? That would be very interesting for East Asian History. Also, there's the possibility of Wuyue managing to untie Southern China too

[WhatIsAUserName]

Originally Posted by FDW

Maybe having Balhae survive? That would be very interesting for East Asian History. Also, there's the possibility of Wuyue managing to untie Southern China too

That second part isn't impossible, though still difficult, and you'd need an early change to allow Wuyue to become stronger than Wu (confusing, I know).

[FDW]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

That second part isn't impossible, though still difficult, and you'd need an early change to allow Wuyue to become stronger than Wu (confusing, I know).

Oh certainly, especially given the Chinese tendency to have single syllable states. I brought Wuyue into the spotlight because they managed several shifts in kings, who were relatively competent.

[WhatIsAUserName]

Originally Posted by FDW

Oh certainly, especially given the Chinese tendency to have single syllable states. I brought Wuyue into the spotlight because they managed several shifts in kings, who were relatively competent.

Yes, but they were competent in the sense that they knew how to avoid unnecessary war and how to gain huge profit from commerce and trade. You would need a few changes to get Wuyue to be stronger than Wu, because otherwise Wuyue would be limited to a small area while Southern Tang has the freedom to expand to take over a much larger part of Southern China. Without Wuyue gaining the upper hand over Southern Tang, you won't see a Wuyue running Southern China.

[FDW]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

Yes, but they were competent in the sense that they knew how to avoid unnecessary war and how to gain huge profit from commerce and trade. You would need a few changes to get Wuyue to be stronger than Wu, because otherwise Wuyue would be limited to a small area while Southern Tang has the freedom to expand to take over a much larger part of Southern China. Without Wuyue gaining the upper hand over Southern Tang, you won't see a Wuyue running Southern China.

They could conquer Min earlier than OTL, and they could probably avoid some wars against Wu, by simply being "Yue".

[WhatIsAUserName]

Originally Posted by FDW

They could conquer Min earlier than OTL, and they could probably avoid some wars against Wu, by simply being "Yue".

Also true, but I still stand by my assertion that the Southern Tang are in the best position to unit Southern China (Northern and Southern Dynasties recap, anybody?) due to geographic reasons favoring Wu/Southern Tang and the focus of Wuyue on trade.

I don't know if Wu fought wars with Wuyue over the name "Wu," though it would be very easy for Wuyue to just call itself Yue. But that also defeats the whole idea of a two-character name.

To be honest, many dynasties can be considered two-characters in name. Just from this time period, talking about "Southern Tang" versus "Nantang" is a matter of English convention.

[FDW]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

Also true, but I still stand by my assertion that the Southern Tang are in the best position to unit Southern China (Northern and Southern Dynasties recap, anybody?) due to geographic reasons favoring Wu/Southern Tang and the focus of Wuyue on trade.

I don't know if Wu fought wars with Wuyue over the name "Wu," though it would be very easy for Wuyue to just call itself Yue. But that also defeats the whole idea of a two-character name.

To be honest, many dynasties can be considered two-characters in name. Just from this time period, talking about "Southern Tang" versus "Nantang" is a matter of English convention.

The Kings of Wu, thought that the "Wu" in "Wuyue" represented a claim on Wu's territory, which was the cause of the bad blood between the kingdoms.

[WhatIsAUserName]

Alright, it's been a week and nobody else has posted anything, so here are a few more ideas, all roughly Warring States Period:

• How can we get Jin to continue intact into the Warring States instead of being divided into three states?
• After overrunning much of Qi, could Yan become a more powerful state and displace Qi?
• How would things look if either Wu or Yue managed to survive and displace Chu in the south?
• Speaking of which, Chu: why the love for a Chu unification, and how would it look like?
• Shu and Ba as independent states: do we know enough to guess how this would look like instead?
• Challenge: get the Rong, Di, and other barbarians to form their own major states in China during this time period.
• Other potential major players: perhaps Song, Lu, or Zhongshan as one of the Big Seven?

And so forth.

[WhatIsAUserName]

Well, it's been a month since anybody posted here, so my new ideas:

• No division between Eastern and Western Zhou: how would things look like if the Western Zhou survived?
• A bit later: What if there's no War of the Eight Princes to bring down the Jin Dynasty?
• The Sui Dynasty reportedly invaded an island somewhere in the East China Sea. If this was true, it was probably one of the Ryukyuan islands or Taiwan. What if this area was incorporated into China?

Any takers?

[FDW]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

Alright, it's been a week and nobody else has posted anything, so here are a few more ideas, all roughly Warring States Period:

Well, they would be more powerful for one, and if they unified China, then we might see a much more navally oriented dynasty than any of the OTL dynasties.
[*]Challenge: get the Rong, Di, and other barbarians to form their own major states in China during this time period.

The Yi did, they founded Wu.

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

[*]No division between Eastern and Western Zhou: how would things look like if the Western Zhou survived?

Western Zhou's capital was close to the frontier, and thus vulnerable to enemy attack. Holding off the attack that caused the initial move might allow the Zhou to exercise power over their domain for a little while longer, but between the location of their capital and their manner of government, it was only a matter of time before we saw the Spring and Autumn period in China.

[*]The Sui Dynasty reportedly invaded an island somewhere in the East China Sea. If this was true, it was probably one of the Ryukyuan islands or Taiwan. What if this area was incorporated into China?

I don't find this that likely, since China's never really given much of a shit about overseas territories. (Until the modern period)

[WhatIsAUserName]

Originally Posted by FDW

The Yi did, they founded Wu.

I don't buy that. Wu was in the south, and might have been Austroasiatic in nature, while the Yi cities were in Shandong in the east (they weren't all nomads like some Chinese historians claimed).

Originally Posted by FDW

Western Zhou's capital was close to the frontier, and thus vulnerable to enemy attack. Holding off the attack that caused the initial move might allow the Zhou to exercise power over their domain for a little while longer, but between the location of their capital and their manner of government, it was only a matter of time before we saw the Spring and Autumn period in China.

The first part is technically true, but I should point out that the Qin used those same territories to build a power base which eventually conquered the rest of the Chinese states. Their capital was basically in the same area as the old Zhou one, and I don't think the Qin capital was sacked during this time period.

The second part about their style of governance is completely true. I hadn't thought about that. Still an ahistorical rump Zhou filling in the role of the historical Qin would be interesting.

Originally Posted by FDW

I don't find this that likely, since China's never really given much of a shit about overseas territories. (Until the modern period)

Again, technically true again, but I should point out that there is one exception, not too much farther away from the mainland than Liuqiu (Taiwan or Ryukyus), and that would be Hainan. Even Taiwan as a giant gulag, Hainan style, would have massive repercussions on the island's history if it was settled earlier.

[FDW]

Originally Posted by WhatIsAUserName

I don't buy that. Wu was in the south, and might have been Austroasiatic in nature, while the Yi cities were in Shandong in the east (they weren't all nomads like some Chinese historians claimed).

I thought the Yi were in Jiangsu and Anhui as well as Shandong. (And I'm not claiming that they're nomadic)

The first part is technically true, but I should point out that the Qin used those same territories to build a power base which eventually conquered the rest of the Chinese states. Their capital was basically in the same area as the old Zhou one, and I don't think the Qin capital was sacked during this time period.

Qin's power base was actually to the west of Zhao's, and it relied more administrative and economic development (aided by geography that made it easier to defend).

The second part about their style of governance is completely true. I hadn't thought about that. Still an ahistorical rump Zhou filling in the role of the historical Qin would be interesting.

Maybe, but I'm more interested in an "incomplete" unification of China.

Again, technically true again, but I should point out that there is one exception, not too much farther away from the mainland than Liuqiu (Taiwan or Ryukyus), and that would be Hainan. Even Taiwan as a giant gulag, Hainan style, would have massive repercussions on the island's history if it was settled earlier.

Hainan is much closer to the mainland than the Ryukyu's or Taiwan. (Hainan is only separated from the mainland by a strait 19 miles wide, while the strait separating Taiwan from China is more than 100 miles wide)