Neutral Ottoman Empire in WWI, WWI ends similarly

Jiraiyathegallant

Hypoethically, the Ottoman Empire does not enter WWI. Then perhaps Italy joins the war a year later for whatever reason, the US joins the war a year later (Zimmerman Telegram is discovered a year later perhaps), a few other things go differently, and ultimately everything balances out and the war ends the same way it originally did, minus the Ottoman Empire. Meaning Versailes still happens, Russia still collapses into Communism, AH ceases to exist, ect...

The only difference is that the Ottoman Empire stays neutral.

How does this change history? Could the Ottoman Empire survive? What do they do in WWII? How does the Middle East look today?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
At least it buys itself time. And probably postpone Arabic nationalism by some decades. The best possible outcome is if the CUP dictatorship collapse and the Empire return to a Third Constitutional Era and more democratic reforms are introduced.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
You can adjust other POD and get the war to end about the same time with a big German defeat. Likely, just keeping Italy out of the war would be enough that way both Russia and A-H have more men and more supplies.

And yes, the Ottomans would be very powerful, a lot depends on if the get the Saudi oilfields. The Ottomans dominate the middle east with Persia as their only serious rival.

Now you can't get exactly OTL. So many butterflies. For example, if Italy does not inflict the 1 million or so casualties on the Central Powers, the another Entente power has to do this item, so someone else has 1 million more wounded of which 500K+ or dead or crippled. And while it would be nice to say this is Russia, it just as easily could be France or England.

Or with a loser blockade, Italy would cheat heavily making money smuggling, the Germans are much less likely to do USW. There is also no Gallipoli, so full Entente army is used elsewhere in 1915.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
This is unlikely, if for no reason other than the Ottomans entering into WWI tied down Allied strength on the part of both the UK and Russia. That strength used elsewhere *will* have impacts.
 

Grimm Reaper

Not to mention the money made by the Ottomans as an endless parade of ships with aid to Russia pour through to the Black Sea and back...
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Grimm Reaper said:
Not to mention the money made by the Ottomans as an endless parade of ships with aid to Russia pour through to the Black Sea and back...
Click to expand...


Yes, there will be a lot of supplies going through, but it is an easy area for U-boats to work since they will likely have intel agents watching the ships go through the straights. Definitely a net win for the Russians, but not as much as you indicated. There is also the issue of these supplies being diverted from other locations which should be taken into account. And if the UK is likely paying for any net gain of supplies to the Entente, then the UK runs out of money faster.

Now yes, the CP need another big break or series of breaks or this is a much shorter war, but the author seemed to want to have a similar war, just no Ottomans, so there is some unknown additional POD.
 

Faeelin

Banned
Grimm Reaper said:
Not to mention the money made by the Ottomans as an endless parade of ships with aid to Russia pour through to the Black Sea and back...
Click to expand...

Well, a couple thoughts:

1) Since the Allies were short of munitions and armaments in OTL, I don't know how much they have to spare for Russia.

2) Did the treaties allow for munitions and armaments to be sent through the straits?

3) Did Russia's infrastructure allow for lots of armaments to be transported to the front from the Ukraine?
 

Grimm Reaper

Food, fuel, clothing...plenty of items Russia will need and the Allies will have a surplus of...much to blockaded Germany's rage.

For the Entente the question becomes what they can offer Greece or Italy if Ottoman territory is not on the table...or Romania if Bulgaria stays out also.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Grimm Reaper said:
Food, fuel, clothing...plenty of items Russia will need and the Allies will have a surplus of...much to blockaded Germany's rage.

For the Entente the question becomes what they can offer Greece or Italy if Ottoman territory is not on the table...or Romania if Bulgaria stays out also.
Click to expand...

The CP could offer Italy a lot, but they can't really help Italy conquer it. Things like Tunisia, Egypt, Malta, etc. Don't see the CP being able to get Romania or Greece into the war for them. Now if Ottomans go for Entente, it might be different since Greece might covet part of the Ottoman empire.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
MerryPrankster said:
Good way to get the Ottomans to join the Allies if Austro-Hungarian submarines are wrecking trade in their territory.
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Or have the CUP coup not happen. The LU tended to be more pro- British, while the CUP was pro- German. However the coup had as much to do with frustration over the fact that Old Turks still were pulling the strings, anger over the loss in the 1st Balkan War and anger that LU "stole the Parliament". So many things to tackle. I would say avoid a total Ottoman collapse in the 1st Balkan War, and the coup could have been avoided.
 

sendô

Snake Featherston said:
This is unlikely, if for no reason other than the Ottomans entering into WWI tied down Allied strength on the part of both the UK and Russia. That strength used elsewhere *will* have impacts.
Click to expand...
A few more corpses piled up on the eastern and western fronts? Perhaps the Germans will run out of bullets if they threw enough bodies at them?

Seriously, it depends if they were to use those extra men properly, which is unlikely.

The Ottomans were in terminal decline and weren't going to survive too long into the Twentieth Century regardless. Could have interesting consequences come WW2, which presumably would still happen, but without easy British access to Saudi oil fields and with potential German access to the middle east.
 

lukedalton

Grimm Reaper said:
Food, fuel, clothing...plenty of items Russia will need and the Allies will have a surplus of...much to blockaded Germany's rage.

For the Entente the question becomes what they can offer Greece or Italy if Ottoman territory is not on the table...or Romania if Bulgaria stays out also.
Click to expand...

Well Italy it's the most easy, what we want is held by A-H so here there will not many change.
But a WWI without the Ottoman Empire is full of butterfly, so i don't see a similar ending at least regarding Russia.
 
anotherlurker

anotherlurker

sendô said:
The Ottomans were in terminal decline and weren't going to survive too long into the Twentieth Century regardless. Could have interesting consequences come WW2, which presumably would still happen, but without easy British access to Saudi oil fields and with potential German access to the middle east.
Click to expand...

you're assuming there would be no further concession claims on the ottos.

after all, cant have christians under muslim rule, can we?
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
One thing to note is that without the Dardanelles being blocked NORMAL trade to Black Sea Russia is going to continue. Its not just the question of routing supplies there from Allies.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

mrmandias

BlondieBC said:
Yes, there will be a lot of supplies going through, but it is an easy area for U-boats to work since they will likely have intel agents watching the ships go through the straights. Definitely a net win for the Russians, but not as much as you indicated. There is also the issue of these supplies being diverted from other locations which should be taken into account. And if the UK is likely paying for any net gain of supplies to the Entente, then the UK runs out of money faster.

Now yes, the CP need another big break or series of breaks or this is a much shorter war, but the author seemed to want to have a similar war, just no Ottomans, so there is some unknown additional POD.
Click to expand...

Russia could help pay for the supplies, since it could continue to export wheat, right?

But since the goal here is to not have an early finish to the war and still have Russia collapse, I think its not unreasonable to posit some brilliant A-H submarine warfare and maybe even some slick commando work that end up hurting trade.

However, I'm still dubious that Russia would go Bolshevik as opposed to just republican or socialist. The events of 1917 strike me as HIGHLY contingent.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
sendô said:
A few more corpses piled up on the eastern and western fronts? Perhaps the Germans will run out of bullets if they threw enough bodies at them?

Seriously, it depends if they were to use those extra men properly, which is unlikely.

The Ottomans were in terminal decline and weren't going to survive too long into the Twentieth Century regardless. Could have interesting consequences come WW2, which presumably would still happen, but without easy British access to Saudi oil fields and with potential German access to the middle east.
Click to expand...

True, but by the same token Russia will have more army than it did IOTL, when it kept having the minor problem of large call ups merely to maintain existing strength. Its faults after all IOTL were political more than military, so this may just postpone the fall of the Tsar to 1918. Or to November 1917. :p
 
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