Anwar Sadat shot and killed in Jerusalem in 1977

[black angel]

so just reading up on the Egypt-Israel peace, and ran across something scary, in seems the Israelis weren't 100% trustful of Anwar Sadat's plan to come to Jerusalem in 1977, some thought that the plane would open it's door and let out not the President of Egypt but Egyptian or Palestinian assassins who would try to kill the Israeli Prime Minster, the Cabinet and other Israeli VIPs, so a number of Israeli snipers on the roofs took aim at the door of the plane just incase, in OTL all went well, but what if it didn't, what if a sniper took a shot and killed Sadat?

[Patton]

Well for one thing that sniper would probably executed for just being plain stuip.

Second of all Egypt and Isreal are at war again possibly with other Arab nations joining the war also.

Another thing is Mubarak isn't vice president yet so he might not ever come to power.

[Nckdictator]

That is litteraly the worst possible thing that could happen for Israel. Short of having the sniper drawn and quartered there's pretty much nothing they can do to make any Arab nation trust them again.

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Patton

Another thing is Mubarak isn't vice president yet so he might not ever come to power.

Mubarak became VP in 1975, the visit was 1977, I'm pretty sure he would become President

[Linsanity]

Obviously no camp David accords. We also see the United States possibly loosen Some of our ties with Israel. Carter, who ended his term with a sour opinion of Israel, would probably actively campaign against the Israeli government post presidency. AIPAC loses its influence/never gets dry strong in the first place.

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Linsanity

Obviously no camp David accords. We also see the United States possibly loosen Some of our ties with Israel. Carter, who ended his term with a sour opinion of Israel, would probably actively campaign against the Israeli government post presidency. AIPAC loses its influence/never gets dry strong in the first place.

idk about America backing away from Israel over the long term, Carter would for sure, but Reagan, if not much else changes he'll be President, while Reagan attacked him largely on domestic policy, and on foreign policy he attacked on Iran, but also attacked him for Camp David and arm twisting Israel to give up the Sinai, likely Carter having harder words (and maybe actions) for Israel will draw more populist fire from Reagan and thus greater support come the 1980s, we might see Israel as a more dividing issue in the US with the Democrats being cold and the Republicans about as warm as they are today 30 years early

[Pangur]

Originally Posted by black angel

idk about America backing away from Israel over the long term, Carter would for sure, but Reagan, if not much else changes he'll be President, while Reagan attacked him largely on domestic policy, and on foreign policy he attacked on Iran, but also attacked him for Camp David and arm twisting Israel to give up the Sinai, likely Carter having harder words (and maybe actions) for Israel will draw more populist fire from Reagan and thus greater support come the 1980s, we might see Israel as a more dividing issue in the US with the Democrats being cold and the Republicans about as warm as they are today 30 years early

Slight problem with above. Regan was no great fan of Israel either. The Israelie invasion on Lebanon was a major area of contention. It is possible however that some of that was down to Begin/Reagan issue -personality rather than anything else

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Pangur

Slight problem with above. Regan was no great fan of Israel either. The Israelie invasion on Lebanon was a major area of contention. It is possible however that some of that was down to Begin/Reagan issue -personality rather than anything else

Begin was generally very hard to get along with, ok he was a right bastard, but I have no doubt that wouldn't stop Reagan saying rosie words about Israel, any ways Begin likely wouldn't be PM for very long after Sadat dies in front of him and other Israeli VIPs, I'd guess there'd be an Israeli election in 77 or 78, and again a guess Labor would win so come 1980 PM Shimon Peres or Yitzhak Rabin, idk if ether of them would get on better than Reagan, also the invasion of Lebanon has offend been thought to be Begin trying to prove he could make war as well as peace, I guess that Israel would be very gun shy about war in TTL

[Pangur]

Originally Posted by black angel

Begin was generally very hard to get along with, ok he was a right bastard, but I have no doubt that wouldn't stop Reagan saying rosie words about Israel, any ways Begin likely wouldn't be PM for very long after Sadat dies in front of him and other Israeli VIPs, I'd guess there'd be an Israeli election in 77 or 78, and again a guess Labor would win so come 1980 PM Shimon Peres or Yitzhak Rabin, idk if ether of them would get on better than Reagan, also the invasion of Lebanon has offend been thought to be Begin trying to prove he could make war as well as peace, I guess that Israel would be very gun shy about war in TTL

Fair comment. I was going to make that very same comment on Begin not surviving as PM after a Sadat murder. I am curious about your comments on Begin wanting to prove that he could make war as well as peace. My gut agrees with you however I don't suppose you can find something to support that.

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Pangur

Fair comment. I was going to make that very same comment on Begin not surviving as PM after a Sadat murder. I am curious about your comments on Begin wanting to prove that he could make war as well as peace. My gut agrees with you however I don't suppose you can find something to support that.

it was something Carter said, I watched something on Camp David and the lead up, and Carter had a number of insights on both Sadat and Begin, and that was his last insight on Begin, how hard making peace was for him, very emotionally damaging for him, he didn't want to do, and nearly didn't he asked Carter to sign 8 photos for his 8 grandchildren, Carter did one better and had the staff call our people in Israel and get their names and signed best wishes to each by name, seeing this made Begin cry and he said he'd give it one last shot, making peace really went against everything Begin had stood for 30 years only something deeply emotional and personal got him to do it, and I think that knocked him off his game for the rest of his life, he'd taken a pledge before G-d to never remove a settlement, Carter did a work around for him to leave it to a vote in the Knesset thus taking the choice away from him, but I also think that never sat well with him, the war I think was an outgrowth of a man trying to find himself again, and the failure of the war really broke him and he became a hermit till the day he died

[Pangur]

Thanks for that. Make me wonder if even prior to Camp David if he had fully got over the Altalena Affair or indeed how things worked out for the Irgun?

[Armored Diplomacy]

Just curious, where did you read this?

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Pangur

Thanks for that. Make me wonder if even prior to Camp David if he had fully got over the Altalena Affair or indeed how things worked out for the Irgun?

no in short, Begin held on to things for ever, Begin supplied arms and equipment to the Argentina Junta during the Falklands War to get back at the British over the torture and summary execution of Avraham Stern in 1942, 40 years before

[Armored Diplomacy]

Originally Posted by black angel

no in short, Begin held on to things for ever, Begin supplied arms and equipment to the Argentina Junta during the Falklands War to get back at the British over the torture and summary execution of Avraham Stern in 1942, 40 years before

Not Avraham Stern. Stern was from Lehi, a totally different group from Irgun. The group was a pariah, because it actually advocated collusion with the Nazis, and in exchange, the Nazis would allow the safe passage of European Jewry to Palestine. Menachem Begin was a man who refused to speak German even 30+ years later as Prime Minister. He would have loathed Stern.

The man you're thinking of, the one Begin is said to have wanted to avenge by selling arms to Argentina, is Dov Gruner. When he approved arms sales to Argentina, he supposedly said "Dov up there is going to be very happy".

[Pangur]

Originally Posted by black angel

no in short, Begin held on to things for ever, Begin supplied arms and equipment to the Argentina Junta during the Falklands War to get back at the British over the torture and summary execution of Avraham Stern in 1942, 40 years before

I think it was your good self who mentioned that in another thread some months ago. What does that tell us, a guy driven my bitterness hate and a desire for revenge?

Got ask - how much did Begin shape the politics of Israel 2012?

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Peter Parker

Just curious, where did you read this?

me? watched it really

Back Door Channels: The Price of Peace

[Pangur]

Originally Posted by Peter Parker

Not Avraham Stern. Stern was from Lehi, a totally different group from Irgun. The group was a pariah, because it actually advocated collusion with the Nazis, and in exchange, the Nazis would allow the safe passage of European Jewry to Palestine.

".

Sweet G_d ! Not saying your making it up but that's frankly mind boggling that Jews would cooperate with the Nazi`s

EDIT --

and after a quick Google

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehi_%28group%29

words fail me guys

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Peter Parker

Not Avraham Stern. Stern was from Lehi, a totally different group from Irgun. The group was a pariah, because it actually advocated collusion with the Nazis, and in exchange, the Nazis would allow the safe passage of European Jewry to Palestine. Menachem Begin was a man who refused to speak German even 30+ years later as Prime Minister. He would have loathed Stern.

The man you're thinking of, the one Begin is said to have wanted to avenge by selling arms to Argentina, is Dov Gruner. When he approved arms sales to Argentina, he supposedly said "Dov up there is going to be very happy".

Begin did hand off his Government to his right hand man, former Lehi man Stern's heir Yitzhak Shamir, the Irgun and Lehi did work together, largely because Lehi was never big enough to mount large operation on their own

Originally Posted by Pangur

I think it was your good self who mentioned that in another thread some months ago. What does that tell us, a guy driven my bitterness hate and a desire for revenge?

Got ask - how much did Begin shape the politics of Israel 2012?

Carter noted that Begin was very detail oriented, spending hours parsing the meanings of words, something like 4 hours with Begin, Carter and Brzeziński with thesauruses over one word, so bitterness and hate maybe, but maybe more oppressive personality issues

hard to say its mixed, while he spent 30 years as the hawk's hawk he's remembered largely for peace and even his war he's remembered for stepping down when it soured, no one forgets he's right-wingness but peace is remembered, his party Lukid is more a child of Ariel Sharon and Benjamin Netanyahu, and maybe in a shadowy way Yitzhak Shamir (and if you think Begin is bad, oh boy)

[GarethC]

Originally Posted by black angel

what if a sniper took a shot and killed Sadat?

Israeli security forces would have swiftly engaged and killed the assassin, revealed to be a "Palestinian terrorist". Really. It would be in all the papers. Very sad, how the Palestinians would stoop to anything to stop peace, you can't trust Arafat, Abu Nidal was probably behind it, yadda-yadda, America must stand`strong behind its ally, only democracy in Middle East, peace through strength and more F-15 sales, business as usual. You'd probably get everyone from the Real Black September to the Judaean People's Front claiming responsibility for it anyway.

Begin would step down over the embarrassing failure of the IDF to safeguard this opportunity for peace, while his successor in the interim administration prior to the election would initiate a counterassassination operation against some bunch of Palestinians who would be accused of being behind it.

Sure, there will be stories about how it was really a IDF or Shin Beth bullet, but honestly there would be the same stories if it really was Abu Nidal behind the shooting.

Carter would frankly bribe the living pants off Mubarak to (out of sorrow and respect for the fallen Sadat) carry on with the peace deal, and there would probably be a very similar thing at Camp David after Mubarak has ensured the loyalty of people with influence in Egypt, or at least ensured that the only people with influence are those who are also loyal.

An interesting question would be whether Mubarak would in turn be assassinated in 1981.

[Linsanity]

Originally Posted by GarethC

Israeli security forces would have swiftly engaged and killed the assassin, revealed to be a "Palestinian terrorist". Really. It would be in all the papers. Very sad, how the Palestinians would stoop to anything to stop peace, you can't trust Arafat, Abu Nidal was probably behind it, yadda-yadda, America must stand`strong behind its ally, only democracy in Middle East, peace through strength and more F-15 sales, business as usual. You'd probably get everyone from the Real Black September to the Judaean People's Front claiming responsibility for it anyway.

Begin would step down over the embarrassing failure of the IDF to safeguard this opportunity for peace, while his successor in the interim administration prior to the election would initiate a counterassassination operation against some bunch of Palestinians who would be accused of being behind it.

Sure, there will be stories about how it was really a IDF or Shin Beth bullet, but honestly there would be the same stories if it really was Abu Nidal behind the shooting.

Carter would frankly bribe the living pants off Mubarak to (out of sorrow and respect for the fallen Sadat) carry on with the peace deal, and there would probably be a very similar thing at Camp David after Mubarak has ensured the loyalty of people with influence in Egypt, or at least ensured that the only people with influence are those who are also loyal.

An interesting question would be whether Mubarak would in turn be assassinated in 1981.

Your faith in Israel is remarkable :P. That's something at actually seems quite possible. As for Mubarak, are you saying that he'd be assassinated by an Israeli sniper once more?