How Long Could Austria-Hungary Last?

Rhaegar I · Jul 18, 2012

First of all, if there was a recent thread on this topic, I am very sorry.

Second of all, assuming WWI either never happens or ends in a Central Powers Victory, could we expect the Empire to last much longer, or is it still going to die quite quickly?

Third of all, what kind of reforms could be put in place realistically to make it more stable? Although the United States of Greater Austria seems like a good bet, IIRC the Hungarians were absolutely against it and the Austrians/Germans only wanted it to screw with the Hungarians, so I'm not sure how it could be put in place.

Lastly, assuming it lasts longer or even to the modern day, how would both the larger world and the area within the Empire change?

So, what do you say?

BlondieBC · Jul 18, 2012

The Shorter the war, the more likely they survive for another 50 years.

To get the Hungarians nobles to back down (5.9% of population who vote), it will take a threat of military forces by Austria, likely with German backup.

There are no good solutions, but A-H is also not doomed to fail. A lot will depend upon the skill of the senior Austrian leaders. USGA is probably least likely. You could see plain renewal, Triple Monarchy, Quadruple Monarchy, armed crushing of Hungarians, splitting into two countries or a lot of other variations.

Rhaegar I · Jul 18, 2012

BlondieBC said:
The Shorter the war, the more likely they survive for another 50 years.

To get the Hungarians nobles to back down (5.9% of population who vote), it will take a threat of military forces by Austria, likely with German backup.

There are no good solutions, but A-H is also not doomed to fail. A lot will depend upon the skill of the senior Austrian leaders. USGA is probably least likely. You could see plain renewal, Triple Monarchy, Quadruple Monarchy, armed crushing of Hungarians, splitting into two countries or a lot of other variations.

I did read a quick victory could have meant a more stable country. A longer war could be quite bad for this.

Crushing the Hungarians is a curious idea, although it may lead to a great deal of hatred from the Hungarians.

It really is sad the USGA is not likely, since it respects the ethnic groups more than Versailles ever did.

Splitting goes against the whole point to this TL, since I want to make one country here, not two+.

If we had triple+ monarchies, what would the extra ones be?

HeavyWeaponsGuy · Jul 18, 2012

Croats, Czechs, and Poles come to mind for a third crown: all Catholic, and fairly highly-represented in the imperial population, Ukrainians are at least a possibility, but far less so than Czechs or Croats.

The Croats could neatly resolve the empire's problems with its Southern Slavs and the Czechs would make sense considering their existing prominence in the empire.

Rousseau · Jul 18, 2012

Would it be possible to have such a possible third crown simply be one for all Slavs? Wherein the Emperor would be lord over the Austrians, Magyars, and, titular ruler of all Slavs?

33k7 · Jul 18, 2012

As long as the government meets its people's needs
Reforms would be coming if Ferdinand wasn't shot it could still be around today

HeavyWeaponsGuy · Jul 18, 2012

Rousseau said:
Would it be possible to have such a possible third crown simply be one for all Slavs? Wherein the Emperor would be lord over the Austrians, Magyars, and, titular ruler of all Slavs?

Yes but who would actually get the crown is where you have a problem?

It's the Yugoslavia problem all over again: if one group gets the crown, the other groups resent the one who holds it because it looks like favorites are being played.

Off-hand, if you're talking about just southern Slavs (you really don't want to lump Czechs in with southern Slavs) it would most likely go to the Croats or Slovenes: both are Catholic, Slovenia has close cultural ties to Hungary and Austria, plus it has a strategic location, however, Croatia has a larger population and also the majority of the Empire's coastline in Dalmatia.

Doing a "king of all the Slavs" in which a Catholic Croat could be empowered to represent all of the empire's Slavs might be worse than just giving it to the Croats.

Kayin Dreemurr · Jul 19, 2012

Why not a rotating crown sort of thing for the slavs? Where every so many years, a noble of one of the other ethnic groups becomes the king of the slavs?

HeavyWeaponsGuy · Jul 19, 2012

Rainbow Sparkle said:
Why not a rotating crown sort of thing for the slavs? Where every so many years, a noble of one of the other ethnic groups becomes the king of the slavs?

It's never really been done.

I mean, not that one couldn't, but I can't see the idea of it coming to play, monarchs rule until they die or for whatever reason abdicate.

Plus, I can't see the Magyars going for it (if they went for the idea of a third crown without immediately revolting anyway).

Shaby · Jul 19, 2012

Rainbow Sparkle said:
Why not a rotating crown sort of thing for the slavs? Where every so many years, a noble of one of the other ethnic groups becomes the king of the slavs?

I don't think this mingles all that well with notions of monarchy, legitimacy, legacy and such things. The only realistic way for Austria is to reform in some sort of federation. Yet, as later experience shows, such thing would be inherently unstable. I do not think South Slav nationalism could be contained for very long.

Cook · Jul 19, 2012

Rainbow Sparkle said:
Why not a rotating crown sort of thing for the slavs? Where every so many years, a noble of one of the other ethnic groups becomes the king of the slavs?

The Dual Monarchy wasn’t a change of status of the Habsburgs, they remained the monarch of all; instead it was an improvement in the political status of the Hungarians under the Habsburgs. The Empire, if it was reformed into a triple crown, would all still remain Habsburg, but that the status of Croats, or possibly Pan-Slavs, would improve within the overall empire. An analogy would be something like Britain; one Monarch but with parliaments in England and Scotland. (etc)

Clandango · Jul 19, 2012

Perhaps of if the Arch Duke's plans for a United States of Greater Austria went through he could overturn the agreement in which children from his Czeck wife were not allowed to inherit the throne.

Simreeve · Jul 19, 2012

HeavyWeaponsGuy said:
It's never really been done.

Malaysia, since independence, IOTL.

Berus · Jul 19, 2012

a third ausgleich with the czechs would be a good idea, but this will only delay the collaps of Austria-Hungary, but it would be a good step.
If you want Austria-Hungary tp survive till modern time it has to federalize, giving each ethnic group the same rights and making them equal. But the biggest problem for federalization are the Hungarians, they won't be happy with this. In my timeline the Austrian half federalizes while the Hungarians still magyarize their population and won't give them equal rights, this leds to unhappiness, the minorities demand federalization. soon the situation escalates, and revolots and uprising in the Hungarian half of the monarchy are order of the day. The Hungarians realize that they have to reform even if they won't like it.

The Name "Greater Austria" would most likley disliked by the hungarians, the other nationalities would not really care, they get more autonomy, what else do they want ? they are quite happy. But eventually they would accept the Name, their Kingdom is still called Hungary, and OTL Austria is going to be called German-Austria.

Snake Featherston · Jul 19, 2012

Until 1917. Franz Ferdinand loathed the Magyars and the time to stop them had already long passed that point where the existence of the Empire was concerned. The Landwehr and Honved are likely to wind up shooting at each other during that process, which'd start a long downward spiral into a general European war.

BlondieBC · Jul 19, 2012

John Mighty said:
Crushing the Hungarians is a curious idea, although it may lead to a great deal of hatred from the Hungarians.

It really is sad the USGA is not likely, since it respects the ethnic groups more than Versailles ever did.

Splitting goes against the whole point to this TL, since I want to make one country here, not two+.

If we had triple+ monarchies, what would the extra ones be?

In 1905, the seal orders to corp commanders had been issue to crush the Hungarians but were recalled when a compromise was reached. A lot of the issue with Hungary having no artillery is from Austria desire to keep enough firepower to over come the Hungarians. And the Austrians also used race to help them. The troops attacking the capital would be largely Croats who would then get the third Monarchy.

USGA problem is that whereever you draw the lines, someone will complain. Just going to one parliament would be more workable, but takes crushing the Hungarian elite.

Croatia is likely, and will be the first if Hungary is crushed. Poles or Czechs are other possibility. Think in terms of the Quad Monarchy of Austria, much smaller Hungary, South Slavs and Western Slavs. And the Hapsburgs would prefer to give up Polish lands for a Polish state if a Hapsburg is on the throne.

And yes, if you solve 4 ethnic issues, you get at least two more. It will be an issue even up today if A-H survives. It is a problem to be managed that can never be fully solved.