AHC: No Iron Curtain?

With a P.O.D. of September 1, 1939, your challenge is to keep the states of central and eastern Europe from becoming outright Soviet puppets at the end of WWII. They can be within the Soviet sphere on influence, but need to maintain a good deal of autonomy (no rigged elections and whatnot). You can still have socialist states in Eastern Europe, but only if they are fairly elected, and remain independent of Soviet socialism (No Red Army tanks rolling in if the socialists are voted out).

You might be able to change most by having the Allies be much more open to the Soviets during the war in particular planning and the surrender talks towards the end where Stalin began to suspect that the allies were dealing with the germans against him. Perhaps if you have him die during the war somehow without the USSR collapsing and a much less paranoid suscessor take over then it might be possible. Even then some countries such as Poland were fairly doomed to basically be russian puppets.

I think the best way is to have the Germans advance to the Urals. Then have Anglo American forces liberate Eastern Europe.

The German army never thinks of going through the Ardennes in 1940 and the blitzkrieg in the west bogues within sight of Paris and Hitler and the Nazis are overthrow by an officer led coup sometime in 1941 after British and French counter-attacks drive the Germans back into Germany. This leads to peace talks and a peace treaty. The Soviets are marginally involved in this war and the only areas under Soviet control are the Baltic states and Stalin's chunk of Poland seized in 1939.

Or Soviets held and bled in Carpathians and on Visla? This would probably required better co operations between Hungarians and Romanians and Slovaks, better equipment for their armies from Germans (or ability to manufacture it) and maybe bigger armies from all 3 countries in Carpathians. I believe Romanians, Hungarians and Slovaks could draft much more men into the army (even with losses Hungarians and Romanians took after Stalingrad) but in OTL Romanians and Hungarians didn't had enough equipment for these men. To back up possibilities of bigger armies, just example of Slovakia: it standing army was around 60 000. Went to something around 100 000 in summer 1944. During WWI around 650 000 men from today Slovakia served in A-H army and population was much smaller.
This would maybe allow Germans defend line on Visla much longer. Of course, we need West allies to got much further. At least to Prague and partially Poland (through Czechoslovakia). Maybe strong resistance would lead to finlandization of Eastern and Central Europe? But Poland, Poland could be lost anyway.

French offensive in 1939 against the western wall, coupled with intensive bombardment of the Ruhr. Italy might not even join the war at all, or even side with the allies once the Germans either fail in holding their line in the west, or fail at the offensive in 1940. Either way, Germany demands a truce before Stalin collects the Baltic States. Peace is somehow reached, with the Czechoslovak and Polish governments in exile returning to the capitals, overseeing the disarment of occupying German forces, preventing the soviets from advancing.

Essentialy - end the war before the Soviets manage to occupy the countries in question. This can even happen with Germany signing a ceize-fire while deep within Soviet territory.

Germany loses 1940 and is defeated in a prolonged, grinding war of attrition with the Western Allies. The Soviets take over the Baltic States, and Moldava but are unwilling to risk a war with the Western Allies. Scenario met.

KACKO said:

Or Soviets held and bled in Carpathians and on Visla? This would probably required better co operations between Hungarians and Romanians and Slovaks, better equipment for their armies from Germans (or ability to manufacture it) and maybe bigger armies from all 3 countries in Carpathians. I believe Romanians, Hungarians and Slovaks could draft much more men into the army (even with losses Hungarians and Romanians took after Stalingrad) but in OTL Romanians and Hungarians didn't had enough equipment for these men. To back up possibilities of bigger armies, just example of Slovakia: it standing army was around 60 000. Went to something around 100 000 in summer 1944. During WWI around 650 000 men from today Slovakia served in A-H army and population was much smaller.
This would maybe allow Germans defend line on Visla much longer. Of course, we need West allies to got much further. At least to Prague and partially Poland (through Czechoslovakia). Maybe strong resistance would lead to finlandization of Eastern and Central Europe? But Poland, Poland could be lost anyway.

Click to expand...

That goes into straight Crack!TL territory by 1944. The Soviets won the battles in the Carpathians, the Germans were not subject to yet another of their perpetual theme to explain why they lose campaigns and battles, a Dolchstoss. The Soviet army by 1944 is too mobile, too large, and too firepower-reliant for this to ever be plausible, the Nazis by 1944 have three armies whose ability to fight a war as opposed to massacre civilians is in steep decline, and whose mobility is in a critical state of decay.

Likewise IOTL the Vistula-Oder offensive was one of the most total and lopsided Nazi defeats in WWII. The Nazis simply didn't have anything like the manpower, the firepower, or the brainpower to stop the USSR by that time. Their doing so is like Jefferson Davis winning the American Civil War with the Trans-Mississippi department.

Paul V McNutt said:

I think the best way is to have the Germans advance to the Urals. Then have Anglo American forces liberate Eastern Europe.

Click to expand...

But outside major ASB scenarios that will never happen as the Germans barely had enough steam with the Soviets bungling in the most idiotic means imaginable to make it to besiege Leningrad, the gates of Moscow, and to Rostov IOTL. And this is with a Soviet army about as poorly led and poorly directed on a grand strategic level as is feasible to achieve.

If we want a political solution, we really need to have Stalin die in a hilarious giant-Stalin-poster related accident circa late '43 or so...

Bruce

Snake Featherston said:

That goes into straight Crack!TL territory by 1944. The Soviets won the battles in the Carpathians, the Germans were not subject to yet another of their perpetual theme to explain why they lose campaigns and battles, a Dolchstoss. The Soviet army by 1944 is too mobile, too large, and too firepower-reliant for this to ever be plausible, the Nazis by 1944 have three armies whose ability to fight a war as opposed to massacre civilians is in steep decline, and whose mobility is in a critical state of decay.

Likewise IOTL the Vistula-Oder offensive was one of the most total and lopsided Nazi defeats in WWII. The Nazis simply didn't have anything like the manpower, the firepower, or the brainpower to stop the USSR by that time. Their doing so is like Jefferson Davis winning the American Civil War with the Trans-Mississippi department.

Click to expand...

Well, you are right, you said what they didn't have. I wrote what Eastern Axis needed. Keep in mind, that in Slovak carpathians Getmans were able bled Soviet, Czechoslovak and Romanians armies pretty bad. Just Czechoslovak army in USSR lost in Dukla pass maybe more men then in all it's other WWII actions together (KIA, WIA and MIA) except Slovak National Uprising. Soviet loses were even worst. And after they passed Dukla, there was other mountain range, and other and other. All together to get from eastern Slovakia to Czech border took 8 month!

KACKO said:

Well, you are right, you said what they didn't have. I wrote what Eastern Axis needed. Keep in mind, that in Slovak carpathians Getmans were able bled Soviet, Czechoslovak and Romanians armies pretty bad. Just Czechoslovak army in USSR lost in Dukla pass maybe more men then in all it's other WWII actions together (KIA, WIA and MIA) except Slovak National Uprising. Soviet loses were even worst. And after they passed Dukla, there was other mountain range, and other and other. All together to get from eastern Slovakia to Czech border took 8 month!

Click to expand...

As they don't have it, their needing it is irrelevant to the actual circumstances in question. Averting Soviet participation in WWII in terms of an Axis-Soviet War altogether is required, as for it to feasibly happen with an OTL WWII situation puts the Allies in a set of binds as far as mundane military reality. However it's also worth noting that for all these claims about the Dukhla Pass, the longest battle of 1944-5 was the Siege of Budapest, an urban battle, so I need at least six citations that state that Soviet losses in the Dukhla Passes were higher than at say, Leningrad or the Dnepr.

Snake Featherston said:

As they don't have it, their needing it is irrelevant to the actual circumstances in question. Averting Soviet participation in WWII in terms of an Axis-Soviet War altogether is required, as for it to feasibly happen with an OTL WWII situation puts the Allies in a set of binds as far as mundane military reality. However it's also worth noting that for all these claims about the Dukhla Pass, the longest battle of 1944-5 was the Siege of Budapest, an urban battle, so I need at least six citations that state that Soviet losses in the Dukhla Passes were higher than at say, Leningrad or the Dnepr.

Click to expand...

Well, if you need 6 citations, I will Try to dig hem out. Of course, some of them will be from Russian, Czech, Slovak or Polish sources. But of course I may forget as with age I keep forgetting, so please remind me. Of course, I may only look up the numbers and write down 6 sources as I am also bit lazy.
But numbers just for Dukla pass battles were if I remeber correctly around 6500 for Czechoslovaks and around 20 000 KIA and MIA and 60 000 for Soviets WIA. That's app. Soviet casualties from Konigsberg.
Sources: SVOBODA Ludvik: Z Buzuluku do Prahy
RICHTER Karel: Apokalypsa v Karpatech.
Vojenske dejiny Ceskoslovenska.
JABLONICKY, Jozef: Povstanie bez legend.
From English AXWORTHY, Mark: Axis Slovakia only mentioned " unproportionaly high Soviet casualties"
Hate this IPad so Russian sources will look up tommorow if still interested.

Wait, so the argument is that Soviet casualties sustained in Konigsberg are a mark that the Axis could somehow stop the USSR by what, exactly?

Did I said that? You asked for sources and put Budapest or Leningrad as example. I am comparing casualties with other battle for urban area. As to Dnieper casualties. If you mean just battle for Kiev, they probably were. If you mean whole operation, then what we are going count here? All Soviet and allied casualties in Slovak Carpathians from 1944 to 1945? Well they will not be higher, but still got somewhere around 100 000.
Problem is that original question was what should be PoD in 1939 to keep Iron Curtain from appearing at all.

If we are going to discuss history in 1944 Eastern Europe I will be more then glad. But shouldn't we change forum? I think axis history portal has part of forum for WWII in Eastern Europe. It is clear that in 1944/45 Germans couldn't do nothing more to stop Soviets in Eastern Carpathians as there was no sense for that when Soviets were advancing in Hungary and Poland. But they were skillfully used terrain to slow Soviet, Romanian and Czechoslovak advance in area.

As other part of the story, what would be AH if Slovak divisions commanders didn't messed up and opened passes for Soviets as planed. In few days Soviet could be on Czech border with possibility to strike from Slovakia to Hungary and towards Wienna in September 1944 instead of April 1945. In that case maybe even Austria would be behinde Iron Courtain.

KACKO said:

Did I said that?

Click to expand...

Well, the argument rests on the Axis somehow stopping the USSR by the time it's reached the Romanian border, which is impossible, and on the Vistula still moreso.

Snake Featherston said:

Well, the argument rests on the Axis somehow stopping the USSR by the time it's reached the Romanian border, which is impossible, and on the Vistula still moreso.

Click to expand...

Of course it is. Here I fully agree with you. In OTL with POD in summer 1944 there is Germans could do to change it. My point was, that if with forces available and with Slovak Uprising at the back they were able to stop and bloody Soviets and Czechoslovaks without them achievieng their target - open lines to Slovak insurgent army. Actually Germans were lucky Slovakia was not able fully pull Romania in August 1944, or at least, not able to finish the job.
Great day to you Sir.

TranscendentalMedication said:

With a P.O.D. of September 1, 1939, your challenge is to keep the states of central and eastern Europe from becoming outright Soviet puppets at the end of WWII. They can be within the Soviet sphere on influence, but need to maintain a good deal of autonomy (no rigged elections and whatnot). You can still have socialist states in Eastern Europe, but only if they are fairly elected, and remain independent of Soviet socialism (No Red Army tanks rolling in if the socialists are voted out).

Click to expand...

I posted a possible scenario in the ,wallies meet the sovs in poland, thread. Basically, youd have to get the ussr and germany to call truce, so the war ends in german capitulation to the wallies after several cities receive a dose of instant sunshine.

Not likely, but possible.

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

I posted a possible scenario in the ,wallies meet the sovs in poland, thread. Basically, youd have to get the ussr and germany to call truce, so the war ends in german capitulation to the wallies after several cities receive a dose of instant sunshine.

Not likely, but possible.

Click to expand...

Or you could go an entirely different route and have the 1940 invasion turn into a total clusterfuck for Nazi Germany, thereby enabling the USSR to consolidate its gains in the East and Stalin's natural caution keeps it from entering WWII, due to his overestimation of how exhausting a victory over the Germans would have actually been for the West.

Snake Featherston said:

Or you could go an entirely different route and have the 1940 invasion turn into a total clusterfuck for Nazi Germany, thereby enabling the USSR to consolidate its gains in the East and Stalin's natural caution keeps it from entering WWII, due to his overestimation of how exhausting a victory over the Germans would have actually been for the West.

Click to expand...

Probably need a negotiated peace in the west (General's coup, withdrawl to pre-1939 borders, rooting out of Nazi party) to prevent a Soviet Poland, though: if Germany fights to the point of collapse, the temptation to "liberate" Nazi-occupied Poland will be great.

Bruce