AHC: Make Gaddafi as powerful as possible

Okay, this is simple enough, Gaddafi was a pan-arabist and a pan-africanist. He tried to merge Libya with Tunisia, Algeria, Chad, Syria, (South) Yemen, Sudan and Egypt at various points. Is there any way his power could have been extended at all?

Expanding his nation's influence counts too if that's all that's logically possible.

Bonus points if he's still in power to this day.

I wrote a bit about this in the "Modernize Libya's military" thread. Libya's power structure was so hollow, with all the power concentrated in Gaddafi's family, that it was difficult for the state to function properly.

You might need some kind of fundamental change in his personality and ideology. Perhaps get him to study in the Soviet Union somehow during his early years, and become an orthodox Communist? A party-state might be inefficient, but less so than the personal dictatorship of the Jamahiriya, and at least it would be organized. It would also allow him to get Soviet support in his various foreign adventures (which, combined with actual organization, would help strengthen OTL's fairly pitiful Libyan military), and he might find an audience in the West for his ideological ramblings if they're straight socialist and not intermingled with Islam.

serbrcq said:

I wrote a bit about this in the "Modernize Libya's military" thread. Libya's power structure was so hollow, with all the power concentrated in Gaddafi's family, that it was difficult for the state to function properly.

You might need some kind of fundamental change in his personality and ideology. Perhaps get him to study in the Soviet Union somehow during his early years, and become an orthodox Communist? A party-state might be inefficient, but less so than the personal dictatorship of the Jamahiriya, and at least it would be organized. It would also allow him to get Soviet support in his various foreign adventures (which, combined with actual organization, would help strengthen OTL's fairly pitiful Libyan military), and he might find an audience in the West for his ideological ramblings if they're straight socialist and not intermingled with Islam.

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That's all well and good, but i'm looking to expand (peacefully if at all possible) his area of control. Even with the terrible command structure of his military, expanding the nation he's in control of will doubtless increase his influence.

Let's say for example he takes Egypt, Sudan, (South) Yemen and Syria as the Federation of Arab Republics, then the Djerba declaration goes ahead and he grabs Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, then his plan to merge with Chad goes ahead. However terrible his military is, he's going to be a much more powerful man after all that.

I don't remember any major power, let alone Libya, conquering/annexing such a vast amount of territory, specially Egypt, since WWII. I don't think the international community (that is, NATO in the cold war years if Libya is fully committed to the Soviet side) would allow it. Controlling Yemen, Sudan and Egypt would give him too much power, through oil and the Suez Canal.

juanml82 said:

I don't remember any major power, let alone Libya, conquering/annexing such a vast amount of territory, specially Egypt, since WWII. I don't think the international community (that is, NATO in the cold war years if Libya is fully committed to the Soviet side) would allow it. Controlling Yemen, Sudan and Egypt would give him too much power, through oil and the Suez Canal.

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I was never suggesting he conquer it all by force. There was a plan to peacefully merge Libya, Egypt, Sydan, (South) Yemen and Sudan, it was called the Federation of Arab Republics. I'm sure there's some way to allow that to happen, then have Gaddafi take power. There was a later plan to merge Libya, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco, which can happen, and again, Gaddafi's in power, without a single bullet fired.

Alternatively, couldn't Gaddafi join and set up the Ba'ath Party in Libya? It's basically Arab socialism, meaning that he could be close to the other Arab states with Ba'ath party regimes, like Saddam's Iraq and Assad Sr.'s Syria. (I don't know the name of Assad Sr., though Bashar is well known already)

MarshalBraginsky said:

Alternatively, couldn't Gaddafi join and set up the Ba'ath Party in Libya? It's basically Arab socialism, meaning that he could be close to the other Arab states with Ba'ath party regimes, like Saddam's Iraq and Assad Sr.'s Syria. (I don't know the name of Assad Sr., though Bashar is well known already)

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Maybe, but would any of that help his nation expand?

The problem with these national mergers is that they would either end up dominated by Egypt or by the Baath Party - it's difficult to find a scenario in which much larger and more populous countries would let themselves be dominated by a seemingly unstable autocrat from a lightly populated nation like Libya.

If you can think of a PoD that would do that, I'd be glad to hear it - but I still think a more realistic way to make Gaddafi powerful would be a restructuring of the state apparatus and more Soviet funding. (This could allow him to take over Chad through military means, though, so that would fulfill part of your goal).

serbrcq said:

The problem with these national mergers is that they would either end up dominated by Egypt or by the Baath Party - it's difficult to find a scenario in which much larger and more populous countries would let themselves be dominated by a seemingly unstable autocrat from a lightly populated nation like Libya.

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Hence the challenge

serbrcq said:

If you can think of a PoD that would do that, I'd be glad to hear it - but I still think a more realistic way to make Gaddafi powerful would be a restructuring of the state apparatus and more Soviet funding. (This could allow him to take over Chad through military means, though, so that would fulfill part of your goal).

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Well, i think that the Djerba declaration could go through giving him Tunisia. After that, the merger with Chad goes through, yet a rebellion breaks out against Goukouni Oueddei, leading to Libyan (and Tunisian) troops moving in to make the merger happen. In the end it does with the support of many Tuareg mercenaries, who then return home with the weapons they got during the war, leading to Mano Dayak freeing Tenere and giving Gaddafi a fairly loyal ally right on his borders.

The interesting thing about this is with Tunisia in Gaddafi's hands, we likely wouldn't see an Arab Spring as we know it, seeing as Mohamed Bouazizi's grievances were about various labour related issues which didn't exist under Gaddafi.

Xachiavelli said:

I was never suggesting he conquer it all by force. There was a plan to peacefully merge Libya, Egypt, Sydan, (South) Yemen and Sudan, it was called the Federation of Arab Republics. I'm sure there's some way to allow that to happen, then have Gaddafi take power. There was a later plan to merge Libya, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco, which can happen, and again, Gaddafi's in power, without a single bullet fired.

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The problem with that is Egypt.

Egypt is for a variety of reasons going to dominate such a union, it's impossible for it to happen any other way.

Egypt is the richest, the most populous, and the most culturally influential.

The other merger however is a different problem... not all of the states in that particular example have a big reason to unite... Morocco leaned pro-Western and others tended to be more pro-Soviet.

Have him get nukes somehow, then the US can't bomb or attack him.

Xachiavelli said:

Well, i think that the Djerba declaration could go through giving him Tunisia. After that, the merger with Chad goes through, yet a rebellion breaks out against Goukouni Oueddei, leading to Libyan (and Tunisian) troops moving in to make the merger happen. In the end it does with the support of many Tuareg mercenaries, who then return home with the weapons they got during the war, leading to Mano Dayak freeing Tenere and giving Gaddafi a fairly loyal ally right on his borders.

The interesting thing about this is with Tunisia in Gaddafi's hands, we likely wouldn't see an Arab Spring as we know it, seeing as Mohamed Bouazizi's grievances were about various labour related issues which didn't exist under Gaddafi.

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What if Bourguiba turned against the West due to an earlier Israeli attack on his territory (like the one that happened in 1985 in OTL)? If something like this happened before the Djerba declaration he might be a lot more receptive to the plan.

Gaddafi could then lead a coup from his post as defense minister and claim he was speaking for the Islamic values forsaken by Bourguiba. (There's a great story - don't know if it's true - that as part of Bourguiba's drive for Westernization, he got on TV during Ramadan drinking a milkshake while telling everyone to give up their old traditions.)

And yes, the Arab Spring as we know it would definitely be butterflied away by such massive changes in the region, although if the structural issues of corruption and dictatorship weren't dealt with, it's likely there would be an explosion sooner or later.

The only way this is possible would be for the Arab states Ghaddafi is seeking to unite, are weaker, or in a crisis. Its how Nasser pulled off the UAR, and its the only way Ghaddafi can pull this off.

Maybe a succession crisis after Nasser's death in Egypt?

Loophole

Guys, guys - the presented challenge here is to make Gaddafi as powerful as possible. No one said Libya had to be as powerful as possible.

If Libya has too many population and political-related barriers to support the Colonel's greatness, you mereley have to devise a POD where Gaddafi or his parents move to another, more powerful country where he then becomes leader.

Now in what country can Gaddafi reach his full potential? Egypt? Saudi Arabia? U.S.A.?

Make Gaddafi as powerful as possible... stop the Arab Spring.

whitecrow said:

Guys, guys - the presented challenge here is to make Gaddafi as powerful as possible. No one said Libya had to be as powerful as possible.

If Libya has too many population and political-related barriers to support the Colonel's greatness, you mereley have to devise a POD where Gaddafi or his parents move to another, more powerful country where he then becomes leader.

Now in what country can Gaddafi reach his full potential? Egypt? Saudi Arabia? U.S.A.?

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This is correct, i'd have no objection to him taking power elsewhere. I think the USA is basically impossible, they'd never have an Arab president in Gaddafi's lifetime, even if he was somehow born there.

As for Egypt, that's a damn interesting angle. Perhaps he takes power there, then founds the FAR, and seeing as the issue of Egyptian domination of this federation now works in his favour, that's a perfect way of doing it. I think if that could somehow work, then you get Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Sudan joining together under Gaddafi, then you get the Djerba declaration going ahead (Butterflies to deal with here, but it could work), causing Tunisia to join. The full plan was to also include Algeria and Morocco, that could be hard, but possible in theory. Then of course, Chad joins too.

The thing with this is that with all these Arab nations uniting under him, there would likely be a wave of pan-Arabism that would work in his favour, perhaps getting him another nation or two for his federation, IMHO Lebanon is the easiest, followed by Jordan and Iraq.

When it comes to him leading Saudi Arabia, i don't think that's the best road to go down, i don't see those borders expanding in a realistic way.

willbell said:

Make Gaddafi as powerful as possible... stop the Arab Spring.

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Meh, by the time the Arab spring came around, Gaddafi was already confined to Libya's borders. Even if it was somehow butterflied away, if that's your POD then i don't see any realistic chance for a land-grab anywhere, by political or military means.