Zu Schutz und Trutz - Bismarck killed in 1866

Iserlohn

Richard L. Pratchett, German History #10: 1849 to 1873 (London, 1999)


(…) The end of the condominion in Slesvig-Holstein with the Convention of Badgastein in 1865 was to some extent a victory for Bismarck and his policies. With Slesvig as well as Lauenburg under firm Prussian control Bismarck has been able to focus on other parts of his inter-German policies, namely the preparation of an alliance system which should end Austrian attempts at dominance in the German Confederation.

Having successfully isolated Austria in the case of a future war after meeting with Napoleon III in Biarritz in September 1865 and signing the Alvensleben Convention in 1863 with Russia (…), Bismarck negotiated an alliance with the Kingdom of Italy, which desired Venetia and other Habsburg-controled areas, promising them at least Venetia after the war was over. Furthermore a few of the smaller northern states in the Confederation declared themselves to be on Prussia's side in the planned conflict, most notably the two Mecklenburgs, Brunswick, Oldenburg and the Hanseatic cities. [1]

Bismarck was at his high point of his political career when we as assassinated in Berlin on the afternoon of May 7 by the radical democrat Ferdinand Cohen-Blind as he was walking across the Unter den Linden boulevard in Berlin near the Russian Embassy. Cohen-Blind, who wanted to stop the possible outbreak of a war between Prussia and Austria, first shot two bullets at the chancellor, one hitting him in the shoulder [2], the other one grazing him. Bismarck tried to attack and disarm the assassin, grabbed him, however Cohen-Blind fired three more shots, one in the stomach, one that ricocheted off the ribs and one in the head. Bismarck's death occurred later in the evening in the presence of King Wilhelm I and the King's physician Gustav von Lauer. Ferdinand Cohen-Blind committed suicide after being taken to police headquarters by members of the 1st Battalion of the 2nd Guard. (...)

[1] Everything so far is OTL

 [2] The point of divergence, ladies and gentlemen!
 
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Razgriz 2K9

Banned
Ah, superb timeline that...

I doubt Bismarck's death will prevent a Seven Weeks War, but could drastically turn the German Confederation against Prussia this go around, now how bad it'll turn out, we'll have to see.
 

Iserlohn

Gerhard Voß, Military Tactics of the Second Half of the 20th Century (Cologne, 1982)

(…) The German Civil War [1] was the first mayor conflict in Europe to utilize the advantages of the improved infrastructure. The Prussian railway system, quite developed in contrast to the other German states, allowed fast movement of larger numbers of troops through allied territory. With this advantage Prussian military genius Moltke used the five railway lines the Prussian military could use in order to quickly concentrate the Prussian army. The 285,000 Prussian soldiers were fully mobilized and concentrated in less then thirty days. Austria lacked this advantage, having only one railway line available; not enough in order to concentrate its 200,000 men large army in a similar time frame. (…)
At first during the war there were signs of a Prussian victory despite the sentiment of the European monarchs that an Austrian victory was unavoidable. The First Prussian Army entered Saxony on June 22 near Zittau without meeting any resistance. Led by commanders such as Prince Friedrich Wilhelm (later Frederick III), Prince Friedrich Carl and General Bittenfeld the Austrians and their Saxon allies were beaten in the skirmishes near Hühnerwasser, Sichrow and Turnau. (...) At the First Battle of Podol Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke personally led the attack on the Bohemian village [2], however it was abandoned as soon as Moltke was hit in the shoulder by an Austrian rifleman. With Moltke removed from the front due to an infection of the wound the key strategist of Prussia was temporarily unavailable. (…)
As Prince Friedrich Wilhelm tried to pass the Riesen Mountains [3] on May 27 his troops were beaten by Austrian defenders at Nachod and Trautenau, luckily however the Prussian casualties were minimal. (…)
The Battle of Gitschin took place on June 29 between Prussia's 1st Army versus the 1st Austrian corps and the Saxon army. Commanded by Prince Friedrich Carl the first larger victory against Austria was achieved with the rather small Prussian army defeating the German Confederation troops which were superior in numbers. The victory was achieved by the usage of breech-loading rifles, the Dreyse needle gun, which fire more rapid shots than the Austrian Lorenz Rifles. (…)
On July 2 the Battle of Königgrätz (also known as Sadowa) took place under the command of King Wilhelm and General Bittenfeld. The Prussian forces converged at flanked the Austrian army, which was assisted by Saxon troops. This manoeuvre was planned by the temporary replacement of Moltke, Leonhard von Blumenthal. The Battle of Königgrätz ended in a decisive Prussian victory and was crucial in ending the war due to the heavy losses suffered by the Austrians led by Ludwig von Benedek. (…)

In the south Austria however had more military successes, beating the Italian army at Custoza on June 24 (…). However with an Italian naval victory near Lissa [4] on July 20, in which the inferiority of the Austrian navy showed, and with the successful skirmishes the Hunters of the Alps led by Italian national hero Giuseppe Garibaldi in southern Tirol the situation for Austria became dire. (…)
Northern Germany saw suprisingly little fighting. The Battle of Langensalza on June 27 between Prussian forces aided by Saxe-Coburg-Gotha against Hanover was the sole genuine victory by Austria's non-Saxon allies. (…) However the heavy losses of Hanover made this a Phyrric victory, with more then one thousand Hanoverian troops wounded and almost 400 killed. With the Hanoverian military practically shattered the Kingdom of Hanover surrendered relultently two days after the battle. (…)
 The Main area saw also little fighting, with Hessian and Bavarian troops facing defeat from the better organized Prussian troops. (...) [5] All of the Hessian states north of the Main were occupied by the July 17.
[1] The English name of this war is quite different from OTL here, though the term Seven Weeks' War is also popular in English. In German it is usually called the German-Prussian War (or sometimes the German Brother's War -> Deutscher Bruderkrieg) ITTL.
[2] In OTL Moltke refrained from leading battles, excluding Sadowa. Here he makes a mistake for once.
[3] The Krkonoše or Riesengebirge. This is TTL's English name for the mountain range.
[4] A change from OTL that is quite drastic. The Italian navy was superior in terms of equipment and size, however OTL the Austrians managed to win using ramming (one of the last few cases in which that was useful). Also the Italian admirals are a bit less "bitchy" towards eachother ITTL, at least for the course of the war, leading to better coordination.
[5] That whole paragraph is up to that point basically OTL.
 
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PariahNihil

PariahNihil

Hoping that Moltke doesn't die and can turn what looks to be a sour war into a sweet victory.

Will be watching for new updates with jubilee!
 

freivolk

The war was not to different from OTL. I assume Bismarcks death will make a differnce in the peace talks. Wilhelm wanted harsher terms for Austria, but hesitateted to dispose fellow Monarchs like the King of Hannover.
 
Xgentis

Xgentis

Without Bismarck Prussia will be more agressive or in any case be perceved as more agressive then OTL.
 

Monty Burns

Xgentis said:
Without Bismarck Prussia will be more agressive or in any case be perceved as more agressive then OTL.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure whether they are really more "aggressive", given that Bismarck started 3 wars from 1964 onward. Prussia will definitely be more expansionistic: annexations in Austria can be expected as well as an earlier and faster colonial expansion.
 

Iserlohn

[FONT=Tahoma, sans-serif]Henri Lebeau, The History of the Germanies after the Second Slesvig War (Metz, 1970)


(…) With the Seven Weeks' War decided after Sadowa the new Minister President of Prussia, Hermann Ludwig von Balan, previously Prussian ambassador to Belgium, quickly wanted to negotiate a peace. After an armistice was signed delegates from the North German Confederation, the military alliance led by Prussia, and from Austria, Saxony, Bavaria, the Hessian states and Hanover met in Munich to determine the terms of the peace treaty. Simultaneously Austrian, French and Italian delegates met in Vienna.


The Prussian delegation, consisting out of Balan, the recently recovered Field Marshal Moltke, Prince Friedrich Wilhelm and Under-Secretary of State Thile previously negotiated the Treaty of Nikolsburg, which laid the foundations of the dissolution of the German Confederation, the formation of the North German Confederation and the annexation of the Kingdom of Hanover. Also Luxemburg and Limburg were to be excluded from the North German Confederation. (…) In the Treaty of Munich a few more changes were made to the Germanies. The North German Confederation should contain all German states north of the Main line, with the Free City of Frankfurt (...) and the Kingdom of Hanover as well as the Kingdom of Saxony being annexed to Prussia. Furthermore it was decided that Austria itself had to cede no territories but instead paying roughly one quarter of the war's cost, namely about 20 million Thaler. The Hessian states north of the Main were, according to Prince Friedrich Wilhelm to be annexed as well, however the Prussian delegation accepted the Austrian and Wettin offer of Saxony if Prussia kept the states (excluding Frankfurt) independent. (…)


Two major problems arose during negotiations, however. First of all Wuerttemberg occupied parts of the Prussian province of Hohenzollern, namely the western section which formerly was Hohenzollern-Hechingen. [1] Secondly the Grand Duchy of Hesse had territories both north and south of the Main, which raised questions about its future membership in the North German Confederation. The first problem was solved by ceding Hohenzollern, which Prussia only aquired 16 years ago, to Bavaria in exchange for 10 million Thaler (including reparations). While mostly forces from Wuerttemberg occupied the ancestral lands of the Hohenzollerns, it was decided that Catholic Bavaria would be more suitable to control the region and it would strengthen their position as the future South German leader [2]. Hesse however was a bit more problematic. (…) In the end the Grand Duke agreed to cede the areas formerly belonging to Hesse-Homburg as well as the province of Upper Hesse, seperated from the south by the now Prussian city of Frankfurt, to Prussia in exchange for receiving 10 million Thaler from the Hohenzollern king in exchange for paying no reparations. The Russian Tsar Alexander II. was not pleased by this due to his marriage to Marie von Hesse-Darmstadt (...).

Furthermore Prussia was awarded with full control over Slesvig-Holstein, however a plebiscite was to be held in five years in which it would be decided whenever or not Danish-speaking North Slesvig wanted to return to Denmark or not. [3] In regards to Hanover it was decided that the wealth of the House of Hanover should be returned to them, a strong demand made by George V. [4] His estates however were confiscated. (…) In regards to the House of Wettin they were also allowed to keep their wealth and King John of Saxony chose to take up new residence in Prague, spending the rest of his years reading and translating Italian peotry [5] while his younger relatives started careers in the Austrian bureaucracy and military. The last addition to Prussian territory was the tiny Bavarian enclave of Kaulsdorf in Thuringia, the sole territorial concession of Bavaria [6].


Just as important as the formation of the North German Confederation following the dissolution of the German Confederation was the formation of the South German Federation, an offer made by both Balan and the Bavarian politician Chlodwig zu Hohenlohe-Schillingsfürst [6]. The South German Federation was to be under Bavarian leadership but also under Austrian influence. The member states, Bavaria, Wuerttemberg, Baden and Starkenburg (the former Grand Duchy of Hesse), agreed to create the South German Federation on January 1 1867. Austria was to be included as a nominal member with one permanent, Emperor-appointed member in the South German legislature. (…)


The Peace of Vienna (…) ended with Italy being awarded with Venetia and most of Friuli, which were given directly to Italy even though Napoleon III offered to serve as the middleman in this procedure. (…) Napoleon III, who was promised the Bavarian Palatinate and Rhenish Hesse or Belgium and Luxembourg by Bismarck for his neutrality received no territories, since Balan was unaware of these unofficial agreements. [8] (...)


[1] A minor butterfly, probably. I can't find info regarding Hohenzollern during the war.

[2] Based on suggestions and due to the fact that other former Hohenzollern possesions in South Germany were also awarded to Bavaria throughout history (Ansbach in particular comes to mind)

[3] This plebiscite was planned in OTL as well, however both Prussia and Austria essentially forgot about it.


[4] In OTL all of the wealth of the House of Hanover was confiscated, leading to the controversial Welfenfond of OTL, used to counter Hanoverian nationalism and to buy off the Bavarians in 1870/1871.


[5] King John famously wrote a translation of Dante's Divine Comedy under the pseudonym of Philalethes, published in 1849.


[6] OTL Bavaria also ceded parts of todays eastern Hesse in 1866, however here with Kurhesse surviving these annexations are butterflied away.


[7] These plans were proposed by Bismarck in OTL as well, here it comes into being. Also Hohenlohe-Schillingsfürst will play an important role later...


[8] Yep, Nappy tried to get these territories as a compensation, which Bismarck denied him in OTL even though he made faint promises. Since Balan probably wouldn't know of any of these informal agreements as well as his good relationship with Belgium he naturally refuses this as well.[/FONT]
 
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Iserlohn

Xgentis said:
Without Bismarck Prussia will be more agressive or in any case be perceved as more agressive then OTL.
Click to expand...

Monty Burns said:
I'm not sure whether they are really more "aggressive", given that Bismarck started 3 wars from 1964 onward. Prussia will definitely be more expansionistic: annexations in Austria can be expected as well as an earlier and faster colonial expansion.
Click to expand...

Monty Burns is quite correct, at least regarding the latter point. Prussia (or rather the North German Federation) will have a very expansionistic colonial policy, especially considering its size. However in Europe...
 

Iserlohn

freivolk said:
The war was not to different from OTL. I assume Bismarcks death will make a differnce in the peace talks. Wilhelm wanted harsher terms for Austria, but hesitateted to dispose fellow Monarchs like the King of Hannover.
Click to expand...

But Prince Friedrich Wilhelm made it very clear OTL at Nikolsburg (after the war, on Juli 24), after the war that money would be more practical for Prussia and that annexiations in northern Germany would be more useful then the annexation of any Austrian territory. His cleverness and Balan's diplomatic skill (s. the newest update) will lead to no territorial losses for Austria.
 

Iserlohn

Also here is the first map of the timeline, a reworked version of a map I previously posted on the map thread (when I came up with the concept of the TL, that time also involving a French intervention).

The key should explain pretty much everything necessary, though as an additional note: The area of the Slesvig/Schleswig (note on how different it is spelled depending on the sources) was divided into three districts for the plebiscite, basically with Zone II, Zone I (minus Kreis Hadersleben/Häderslev) and Hadersleben/Häderslev as the three districts of TTL. Only Hadersleben/Häderslev clearly decided to return to Denmark ITTL in 1871 (the year of the plebiscite).

800px-Abstimmung-schleswig-1920.png


And now... The map! EDIT: Removed the map, I'll upload a new version this weekend.
 
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galileo-034

galileo-034

The main request of Napoleon III was Luxembourg. France was to pay King William of the Netherlands a generous compensation for the Grand Duchy while Prussia was also to pressure him to accept and to cede to the Netherlands some territories in Frisia as an other compensation. Belgium was only a vague, very vague possibility, evoked in negociations, but its importance was exagerated by Bismarck in order to isolate France from the British.
 

lukedalton

regarding Italy, a better performance in the Third war of independence mean a lot. Both in major self-confidence and in looking a better ally for another country.
There is the possibility of mantaining the Italo-Prussian alliance, but the piedmontese nobility and generals plus the King will favor an alliance with France.
Just one thing, it's all Friuli or as OTL it's only the western part because there are future strategic consideration.
 

pompejus

Faeelin said:
How much more expansionist can Germany possibly be?
Click to expand...
Most obvious: Luxemburg and Austria (including south Tirol/Trent)
slightly less obvious Chechia, Limburg, Slovenia, Lichtenstein
Even less obvious: the Netherlands, Belgium, Switserland, Denmark, Russian Poland

Ignoring various colonial possibilities of course, although the colonies left are basicly worthless.
 

Iserlohn

lukedalton said:
regarding Italy, a better performance in the Third war of independence mean a lot. Both in major self-confidence and in looking a better ally for another country.
There is the possibility of mantaining the Italo-Prussian alliance, but the piedmontese nobility and generals plus the King will favor an alliance with France.
Just one thing, it's all Friuli or as OTL it's only the western part because there are future strategic consideration.
Click to expand...

I am no expert on Italy, but the present day province of Gorizia (and lands west of it) are not included. Also I don't know how much exactly the border looked like in comparision to OTL (I think I should look that up soon...).

Regarding the alliances: Well, things are going to get interesting since the most important event of 1870 will be averted... :D


Faeelin said:
How much more expansionist can Germany possibly be?
Click to expand...

pompejus said:
Most obvious: Luxemburg and Austria (including south Tirol/Trent)
slightly less obvious Chechia, Limburg, Slovenia, Lichtenstein
Even less obvious: the Netherlands, Belgium, Switserland, Denmark, Russian Poland

Ignoring various colonial possibilities of course, although the colonies left are basicly worthless.
Click to expand...

Well, this TL isn't going to be a classic German-wank, so... Be excited! Just a small hint: Bavaria has something to do ITTL ;)


galileo-034 said:
The main request of Napoleon III was Luxembourg. France was to pay King William of the Netherlands a generous compensation for the Grand Duchy while Prussia was also to pressure him to accept and to cede to the Netherlands some territories in Frisia as an other compensation. Belgium was only a vague, very vague possibility, evoked in negociations, but its importance was exagerated by Bismarck in order to isolate France from the British.
Click to expand...

I know that Luxembourg was the key demand for Napoleon III (the fortifications are simply not to be ignored), however with Lebeau you have a somewhat Germanophile author, so he might just use predominantly German sources for his works.

Luxembourg will also be covered quite soon by the way.


Also: Thanks to everyone who just reads this, hope I can entertain (and maybe even to some minor extent educate) you guys!
 

Adler

Banned
Bismarck could only hardly calm Wilhelm down to annex parts of Austria as well (Austrian Silesia, Bohemia, Innviertel). He threatened with resigning, and even that nearly failed. Here Bismarck is no longer alive.

Adler
 

Iserlohn

Adler17 said:
Bismarck could only hardly calm Wilhelm down to annex parts of Austria as well (Austrian Silesia, Bohemia, Innviertel). He threatened with resigning, and even that nearly failed. Here Bismarck is no longer alive.

Adler
Click to expand...

He was essentially the only one who wanted major annexations. Here we also have a talented Prussian diplomat (Balan) as Prussian chancellor, who (considering that there sadly isn't THAT much about him to read) acts similiar to Bismarck and is supported by Crown Prince Friedrich Wilhelm (who also supported Bismarck quite openly in OTL). So Wilhelm I. just has to live with being a sad panda ;)
 

lukedalton

I am no expert on Italy, but the present day province of Gorizia (and lands west of it) are not included. Also I don't know how much exactly the border looked like in comparision to OTL (I think I should look that up soon...).
Click to expand...

In all probability the border will be the same of OTL as that situation was already settled in the pre-war talk and France and UK will not want A-H to suffer much. The concession will be probably more moral, instead of France as the middleman, territory and crown will be given directely to Italy

Regarding the alliances: Well, things are going to get interesting since the most important event of 1870 will be averted... :D
Click to expand...


Italy will have now as main objective Rome, so interest with the French will clash. Initially the UK thinked of Italy as a junior patner in the meditereran as a counterforce to France, but italian indecision basically waste the occasion
 
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