China - Eastern partner of the Axis

[Hrvatskiwi]

Excerpt from "Sino-German Relations, 1921 - 1947" by Werner Buchholz

The Chinese Beiyang government refused to accept the terms of the Versailles Treaty, motivated because of the concession of Chinese territories (namely the city of Tsingtao and the Kiautschou Bay area) to the Empire of Japan. The Beiyang government was very weak, and their refusal was only caused by the May Fourth Movement, a movement that emerged from a series of student protests in Peking's Tienanmen Square. The May Fourth Movement was largely based around the feelings of anti-imperialism and Chinese nationalism that became more prevalent in China amongst all social classes, particularly the emerging middle class. This sentiment was intensified by the feelings of betrayal felt by the Chinese people in regards to the Western powers, who failed to reward Beiyang China for declaring war on the German Kaiserreich. The May Fourth Movement led to a radicalisation of Chinese political thought, and served to propagate the ideology of Marxism. Mao Zedong, later leader of the Chinese Communist Party, came to local prominence as a result of the May Fourth Movement, and he organised opposition against Hunanese warlord Chang Ching-Yao. Amongst non-leftists, right-wing authoritarian ideals also became more popular, which is considered by many to have formed the root of the eventual growth of Sino-Fascism.

The Treaty of Versailles restricted the military expenditure of the Weimar Republic, but did not prevent Germany from continuing to be at the forefront of military technology. In order to circumvent restrictions in regards to production of military hardware, Germany made arrangements with foreign states, including Argentina (later a close associate of the Nazi regime) and the Soviet Union (to whom Germany also sold industrial equipment) to sell and produce military equipment. After Yuan Shi-Kai, the President of the Republic of China (and former Emperor) died in 1916, the Beiyang government collapsed into a collection of warlords. The ongoing conflict between warlords opened an opportunity for the German military-industrial complex to supply materiel and advisors to an enormous emerging market.

By this time, the Koumintang government, based in Guangzhou, had sought German assistance in the fields of military development and industrial technology. Zhu Jiahua, a prominent Koumintang member who had been educated in Germany, arranged many of these contacts, which created a tangible political link between Germany and China. Germany provided several positive factors for China: Having lost their empire in Asia-Pacific, Germany had no territorial or imperialistic ambitions in Asia; Whilst the Soviet Union had assisted the Kuomintang, it was aligning itself closer to the Chinese Communist Party and had ulterior motives in North-East Asia; Germany could provide technology and military expertise, and Chiang Kai-Shek admired Germany's unification process as one that should be emulated to unite 'Greater China', or Großchina.

The Great Depression affected co-operation between Germany and China, decreasing the amount of interchange between the two. Conflict of interests between Chinese reconstruction agencies, the Reichswehr and import-export houses also retarded progress somewhat. The Weimar government, adamant on keeping a neutral foreign policy, restricted the expansion of ties between the German military-industrial complex and the Koumintang. After the Mukden Incident, and the Japanese annexation of Manchuria, however, Sino-German co-operation gained pace. This incident led to the Chinese government's development of a solid industrial policy revolving around the expansion of the military and industry in order to combat any future Japanese aggression. This policy also led to strengthened Koumintang control over China.

In 1933, the Nazi Party, under Fuhrer Adolf Hitler, seized power, in what was later to be known as the Machtergreifung. The Nazi's economic policy of Wehrwirtschaft accelerated exchange between the Third Reich and the Republic of China. The Nazis militarised the economy, and stockpiled raw materials, including tungsten and antimony (China was the largest producer of antimony, mining enormous quantities from the Xikuangshan mine in Hunan) which China supplied in massive quantities. In May of 1933, Rüdiger von der Goltz and Hans von Seeckt travelled to Shanghai. The two generals were known amongst German expatriates in Shanghai as having an antagonistic relationship. Hans von Seeckt was in favour of Germany having an alliance with the Soviet Union against Poland, whilst von der Goltz hated the Soviet Union and believed that China should be strengthened as an ally against the USSR. Whilst von Seeckt proved influential in developing the Chinese military and industry, von der Goltz's views had a lasting impact on Chiang Kai-Shek's foreign policy. Von Seeckt submitted a memorandum to the German government, the Denkschrift für Marschall Chiang Kai-shek in June. He felt that the Chinese military should be a small, elite force, similar to the Reichswehr of Weimar Germany, and that qualitative superiority of the officer corps would lead to a strong foundation for the ruling government. Whilst this doctrine seems counter-intuitive to China, which has a tradition of large, yet inefficient armies, the army could always be expanded later and smaller armies put less pressure on China's relatively primitive logistics system, which hadn't yet been improved to the extent of the present. In accordance with von Seeckt's framework, a training brigade was sent from Germany to China, to train officers and teach the Chinese how to run a first-class military establishment.

To develop a more efficient industrial base, German reconstruction agencies were consolidated into the Handelsgesellschaft für industrielle Produkte (also known as Hapro) in January 1934. Hapro was structured as a private company to fool other countries, but it was entirely subservient to the interests of Germany's Nazi government. In August 1934, China and Germany signed a treaty that exchanged strategically important Chinese raw materials for German industrial equipment and development assistance. This worked out well for China, which had a severe budget deficit from years of civil conflict, and they were unable to secure foreign loans. In March 1935, von Seeckt transferred his post to Alexander von Falkenhausen, returning to Germany, where he died in 1936.

In 1937, Koumintang Finance Minister H.H. Kung visited Germany, being received by Adolf Hitler, on June 9. Kung pointed out to Hitler and Hans von Mackensen (who was standing in for von Neurath, who was preoccupied in Eastern Europe) that China was a far better ally than Japan, who had been an enemy to Germany in World War I. Von Mackensen assured Kung that China was Germany's most important ally in East Asia. A meeting on the 10th with Hjalmar Schacht resulted in a loan of 100,000,000 Reichsmarks to China. Kung met Hitler on the 13th, expressing his dislike for Japan further and attempting to persuade Hitler that China would be a superior ally to Japan. Whilst Hitler was at first hesitant, preferring to mediate problems between Japan and China rather than back one side, Kung convinced him that China, having a larger population and a larger army, with significant potential for expansion, would be more capable of assisting Germany in any future war with the Soviet Union. In an earlier visit to Hermann Goering, Goering had also assured Kung that Japan was considered a "Far East Italy" by Germany, and that China would be the focus of Germany's Asian policy. Kung left Berlin on the 14th June.

[Shaby]

Sounds nice, please continue.

[jeckl]

Sounds interesting and I didn't Changs' son join the Austrian army in olt?

[Richter von Manthofen]

Originally Posted by jeckl

Sounds interesting and I didn't Changs' son join the Austrian army in olt?

NOTthe Austrian Army - He was training in Germany as member of the Wehrmacht and was part of the Germany force that crossed into Austria in 1938.

[Faeelin]

I'm not sure I see the POD here; unless Japan is significantly stronger than OTL, allying with China when much of its territory is occupied by Japan makes no sense.

[Shaby]

Second Sino-Japanese war is just about to start, maybe the POD will be there?

[Richter von Manthofen]

Germany HAD strong ties with China in the 30s.

If - for example - (Nationalist) China is stronger (Campaigns against communists suceed earlier) then China is stronger nad Japan might not grab all the land it does OTL.

Shanghai goes different (Chinese Victory) Marco Polo butterflied away maybe

No Nomohan incident.

Japan is more friendly to SU, less progress in China - Germany leans to China.

Now we have a CHina that is firnds with Germany and not (so much) the US. Could Japan get a free hand in China. When WWII breaks out would China be seen as an Axis country? Would the US consider Japan as ally and direct the Japanese ambuitions even more towards China ?

[Hrvatskiwi]

Excerpt from "Greatest What-Ifs of the 20th Century" (Albatross Books)

Throughout June of 1937, Japan held a series of military exercises near Luguoqiao, known in the West as Marco Polo Bridge. Every night in June maneuvers were held, and the Chinese requested advance notice, so as not to disturb local residents. The IJA agreed, but on July 7th, they carried out maneuvers during the night without notifying the Chinese government.

The Chinese troops panicked, and fired warning shots at the Japanese, believing themselves to be the targets of a real Japanese assault. After the skirmish, a Japanese soldier was found to be missing, so his company commander, believing the soldier was captured, reported the skirmish to his regimental commander, Col. Renya Mutaguchi. The Chinese regimental commander, Ji Xingwen, received a telephone call from his Japanese counterpart, demanding permission to enter Wanping to find the missing Japanese soldier.

At 23:40, General Qin Dechun, acting commander of the 29th Route Army and Chairman of the Hebei-Chahar Political Council was contacted by IJA intelligence with the same demand. He refused Japanese entry into Wanping, stating that he felt that Japanese troops had violated Chinese sovereignty by failing to give notice. Qin did say, though, that he would order Chinese troops stationed at Wanping to conduct a search with a Japanese officer attached, but under Chinese jurisdiction. The Japanese command were satisfied, but a unit of Japanese infantry attacked Wanping's defences and were repelled. Two hours later the Japanese issued an ultimatum. As a precaution, Qin ordered 37th Divisional commander General Feng Zhian to place his forces on high alert.

Around 03:30 on the morning of 8 July 1937, the Japanese sent four mountain guns and a company of machine gunners to reinforce their troops. The Chinese rushed an extra division of troops to the area. At 04:50, two Japanese investigators were let into Wanping, but the IJA still fired machine guns at 05:00. Japanese infantry, supported by armoured cars, attacked Luguoqiao.

Ji Xingwen led the defense with approx. 100 men. The Japanese partially overran the bridge in the afternoon, but with the arrival of Chinese reinforcements, the Chinese outnumbered the Japanese and were able to take advantage of mist and rain to recapture the bridge by 06:00. The Japanese military and Foreign Service personnel began negotiations in Beijing with the Chinese Nationalist government. A verbal agreement was reached between the two parties. Wanping was turned over to the Hopei civilian constabulary.

Many historians have noted the potential for this event to have led to a full-scale war between Japan and China, noting General Masakazu Kawabe's diary, expressing his desire to continue shelling Wanping, although in the end he obeyed his superiors' orders to ceasefire. Many historians, particularly those from the West, have postulated that if the Luguoqiao Incident (as it is known) had escalated, the Japanese may have easily defeated the Nationalist Chinese, who's army, by and large, still made up of largely conscripted, poorly trained soldiers. Those historians believe that the Japanese could of taken Peking and Shanghai relatively easily, and that the Nationalist government would've collapsed easily.

Excerpt from "China and Chiang" by Robert Smith

In the aftermath of the Luguoqiao incident, the Chiang Kai-Shek regime pursued a policy of militarisation. Senior Kuomintang leaders feared that the Japanese would attack China relatively soon. A number of Japanese spies had been uncovered, and it became apparent that the Japanese were aware of China's aspirations towards industrialisation. The Chinese worked with Soviet intelligence, however, who used double agents to spread disinformation about the progress of China's industrialisation. Under the impression that the Chinese would not make notable gains in their efforts until the mid 1940s, the Japanese were more moderate in their aggression. Chiang's forces moved to crush warlords in the remote Xibei and Yunnan regions, expanding railroads into the area in an attempt to expand their control. The regime reorganised provinces in those areas to put civil governors into place, rather than the warlords, who were executed, along with most of their expendable cronies. In an effort to get Soviet support for them, and in order to discourage them from supporting Mao Zedong's Communist movement, the Kuomintang allowed the Soviets to de facto occupy Sinkiang province in the far West of the country (although Sinkiang remained de jure Chinese territory).

Despite a few minor border skirmishes with Mongolia, relations between the Soviets and the Chinese during this period were largely amiable. Behind closed doors, however, Chiang is known to have a severe dislike for both Communism and the Russians. Chiang considered the Russians little more than "Slavic Barbarians", who didn't show "proper respect for the millennia-long glory of Chinese civilisation", in a manner typical of his anti-colonialism. Chiang was more pre-occupied with expelling Western European foreign interests, seeing French and British commercial activity as undermining the interest of the Chinese people. The British, in the Anglo-Japanese alliance, already showed their preference for China's arch-nemesis in the East, and many British nationals in China had supported Japanese actions to weaken the central Chinese government, largely due to the Kuomintang's revocation of European foreign concessions, and tariffing without British consultation.

Furthermore, Kuomintang preference for German corporations was seen in Britain as an attempt to artificially deny Britain the Chinese market, and American and German goods were commonly out-competing British goods throughout China (with the exception of Hong Kong). Chiang had also called for the return of Hong Kong and Macao to China, referring to Hong Kong as a "remnant of the shackles of colonialism". German arms manufacturers opened factories in China, producing Mauser 98k rifles, which were designated the type 25 or "Sun Yat-Sen" rifle, as well as the new MP38 submachineguns, which were made available to combat engineers, as well as to special forces. The Germans continued to assist the Chinese in training their army, and conscripted forces were demobilised, in conjunction with the training of smaller, more effective units. Many of these new units were of superior quality to Japanese troops, although the creation of a sizeable, effective standing army wouldn't be done until 1940.

[Hrvatskiwi]

Excerpt from "Nazis & Nationalists" by Joachim Fest

On September 1st 1939, Nazi Germany invaded Poland, setting off the European theatre of what has become known as the 'Second World War'. Through the course of 1938 and '39, Chiang Kai-Shek, Hitler's ally in China, had largely pacified the warlords of China, and had developed, with German assistance, a strong basic industrial base. Steel production rose dramatically, especially in the Jialing River Valley of Sichuan, as did many other key industries.

The Kuomintang's main political rival, the Communists under Mao Zedong, were losing ground. Whilst the Chinese Communist Party had relied on the rural peasantry as their main support base, the Nationalists government had denied the Communists this support by enacting land reform in places which had been taken from the control of independent warlords. The redistribution of land to individual peasants proved to be beneficial in the short term to the Kuomintang, increasing production and providing greater stability to the rural areas. The campaign of the Nationalists in Shaanxi province, the last remaining major Communist stronghold, lasted until late October of 1939, and this is largely attributed to occasional clandestine air-drops of equipment into Shaanxi by the Red Air Force.

In Europe, Nazi Germany crushed Poland, but was at war with France and Britain. Britain and Germany's mutual embargoes cut off German aid and investment from China. China hadn't declared war, and was at this point neutral in the war.

[Mig114]

Please continue. This is pretty interesting, and I wish to read more. Subscribed.

[forget]

Practically falls over himself in a rush to express my enthusiasm for this TL and it continuation.

Chinese navel forces and policys?

U-boats concentration or big ship focus?

[stevep]

Hrvatskiwi

Interesting. Won't be commenting for a week or so as going to be away but definitely subscribing.

Steve

[Urban fox]

Hmm, KMT China was a paper-tiger and barring ASB intervention Chaing's regime will remain morbidly corrupt and incompetent basket case.it's ''Progress'' will be limited at best.

Hell, KMT relations with Germany could see China getting ripped apart by Japan and Russia at the same time. Rather than one or the other, and even granted the most generous POD's the KMT' armies could never match even the level of threat posed to the Soviet Union by the IJA. Even if they actively joined the war on the German side.

Shackled to this corpse Germany could wind up much worse off than OTL.

[Snake Featherston]

This is a great thing......for the Allies.

[forget]

I dont get it why is this TL a great thing for the allies?
Its not like China has joined the Axis, yet.

[Catspoke]

It will be interesting to see how this develops. The only time I can see China duped into declaring war in like October 41 or something, when it appears the Soviets might collapse, of course the Soviet Siberian armies would occuply the place, support the communists and thats that.

Otherwise China remains neutral, diplomatically sympathetic to Germany, a few German POWs from the Soviets escape there. German agents conspire to blow up a bridge on the Trans-Siberian railway and as usual to "set India ablaze" but don't accomplish much. Post war many Nazis emigrate that using Portugese Macau as a transit point and join in the post world war two fight against their favorite enemies the communists.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by forget

I dont get it why is this TL a great thing for the allies?
Its not like China has joined the Axis, yet.

Because Jiang Jieshi couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper bag ridden with holes with scissors.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Axis China could possibly see the greatest enemies in Asia as allies. Soviet Union and Imperial Japan, and if they got some insane luck, they might even have a small cold war on their hands with a partitioned China.

[BBadolato]

Whats the value of China to the Axis war effort? China has a crap navy that limits there options using naval power. The army while large would have to have some good logistics to be effective, and how effective it is unless all of the ineffective and corrupt commanders are somehow purges is highly questionable.

The only way I can see China being a decent part of the Axis, is better relations with the Japanese, for an example Japan returns Manchuria in exchange for resources to power it's war machine. Thus with no Sino-Japanese war means that Japan has resources,fresher troops, and doesn't have to worry about diplomatic incidents, so no motivation or consideration of an attack on Pearl Harbor. However this all comes across to me as being completely ASB, as I doubt either Jiang, or the Military Government wouldn't even think of such an agreement.

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Because Jiang Jieshi couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper bag ridden with holes with scissors.

He defeated Mao and chased him to Yenan. He held the Japanese army outside Nanking for six months.

I'm not saying either of these was a great victory - but both represent a lot of effective fighting.

The KMT regime was never especially strong, but there were never strong materials to build it with. That Jiang held it together while defeating the warlords, rousting the Communists from south China, and fighting Japan for eight years, was a considerable achievement.

Don't assume that even an egregious loser in one campaign is therefore a complete incompetent. Graziani, the loser in O'Connor's campaign in Libya, was the commander who finally defeated Libyan guerrilla resistance in the 1930s. Ambrose Burnside captured Roanoke Island, marched 100 miles to liberate Knoxville, and held it against Longstreet. Santa Anna's army at Buena Vista fought for several hours, executed complex maneuvers, and withdrew in good order, taking some captured artillery with them.