Gallipoli Campaign

Tongera

What if the Greeks joins the Entente in WW1 in 1915, right before the Gallipoli Campaign? With this we have to assume that the King and the Prime Minister both agrees to join (could be done by the Entente offering Cyprus, parts of Asia Minor, Eastern Thrace, Northern Epirus, Northern Macedonia and parts of Bulgaria maybe), but the challenge is to get Greece to join in 1915 and to participate in the Gallipoli Campaign, what would the effect be? Could Gallipoli be a success? Russia stays in the war longer? Earlier collapse of the Ottoman Empire? Earlier end to the war?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Tongera said:
What if the Greeks joins the Entente in WW1 in 1915, right before the Gallipoli Campaign? With this we have to assume that the King and the Prime Minister both agrees to join (could be done by the Entente offering Cyprus, parts of Asia Minor, Eastern Thrace, Northern Epirus, Northern Macedonia and parts of Bulgaria maybe), but the challenge is to get Greece to join in 1915 and to participate in the Gallipoli Campaign, what would the effect be? Could Gallipoli be a success? Russia stays in the war longer? Earlier collapse of the Ottoman Empire? Earlier end to the war?
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Sure, it is a dramatic enough POD, it could change things, but my guess is Gallipoli will still fail.

The history of Italy and Romania indicate that it would likely take few months to negotiate the deal, and with the sweet terms you offered, I see why the Greeks accept. Now especially since both parts of Bulgaria are offered and parts that Bulgaria want, I see Bulgaria entering the war at about the same time.

I take "right before the campaign" to be begin mobilizing within a week of the launch of the attack. Greece would mobilize slowly, as would Bulgaria, by either French or German standards. Greece likely moves to secure it new lands. It will clash with Bulgaria in rough terrain, and likely stalemate the lines. How did you see the first few months of land battles playing out?

Now Ottomans kept their best corp to defend against Bulgaria for much of 1915. You have free this corp up, so we can probably discount a land battle win by the Entente in Gallipoli. I don't see an obvious reason the sea battles go better, besides randomization of butterfly effect.

Serbia may not fall in 1915, and with a secure port to Saloniki and railroad, the Entente might give heavy reinforcements to Serbia. It could either be supplies used in France in 1915 IOTL or once Gallipoli is evacuated sending the entire land forces (a full army) to Serbia. Then the whole chain of the 1916 events (Verdun, Brusilov, A-H attacking Italy) might play out differently.

You have also promised Greece part of Serbia. This will have interesting diplomatic consequence in Serbia and potentially Romania and the USA. How did you see this playing out? Even if kept secret to the very end, so it does not help the CP during the war, it will have fascinating consequences post war.

It would make a great TL.
 

Tongera

BlondieBC said:
Sure, it is a dramatic enough POD, it could change things, but my guess is Gallipoli will still fail.

The history of Italy and Romania indicate that it would likely take few months to negotiate the deal, and with the sweet terms you offered, I see why the Greeks accept. Now especially since both parts of Bulgaria are offered and parts that Bulgaria want, I see Bulgaria entering the war at about the same time.

I take "right before the campaign" to be begin mobilizing within a week of the launch of the attack. Greece would mobilize slowly, as would Bulgaria, by either French or German standards. Greece likely moves to secure it new lands. It will clash with Bulgaria in rough terrain, and likely stalemate the lines. How did you see the first few months of land battles playing out?

Now Ottomans kept their best corp to defend against Bulgaria for much of 1915. You have free this corp up, so we can probably discount a land battle win by the Entente in Gallipoli. I don't see an obvious reason the sea battles go better, besides randomization of butterfly effect.

Serbia may not fall in 1915, and with a secure port to Saloniki and railroad, the Entente might give heavy reinforcements to Serbia. It could either be supplies used in France in 1915 IOTL or once Gallipoli is evacuated sending the entire land forces (a full army) to Serbia. Then the whole chain of the 1916 events (Verdun, Brusilov, A-H attacking Italy) might play out differently.

You have also promised Greece part of Serbia. This will have interesting diplomatic consequence in Serbia and potentially Romania and the USA. How did you see this playing out? Even if kept secret to the very end, so it does not help the CP during the war, it will have fascinating consequences post war.

It would make a great TL.
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I meant the territorial concessions as an example.
The Greeks fight against the best Ottomans in Eastern Thrace, which distracts them from fighting the Commonwealth troops that land on the Gallipoli Peninsula during the campaign, which could lead to better results. However the naval battles that went on, the Entente needs to avoid the mines and perferably sends more ships to try to force open the Dardanelles (with more troops for the ground campaign).
The Ottoman ground troops that will be fighting will be forced to split between an determined Greek attack and an determined Commonwealth attack, which will be supported by the navy which will be moving up the peninsula.

The british also needs to land troops as soon as possible, not 6 weeks to give the Ottomans time to prepare for the inevitable landings. Ottomans fighting unprepared against determined British and Greek forces could collapse or surrender while trying to retreat in the direction of Constantinople. Hence not as determined resistance from the Turks as in IOTL.

Any other ideas/suggestions etc?
 

Tom_B

Tongera said:
The Greeks fight against the best Ottomans in Eastern Thrace, which distracts them from fighting the Commonwealth troops that land on the Gallipoli Peninsula during the campaign, which could lead to better results. .

Any other ideas/suggestions etc?
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Here is an idea/suggestion. Why don't you look at a map of 1914 Balkans?
 

Elfwine

Since the campaign was lost by British blunders, I'm not sure why Greece being in the war would make the British blunder less.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Tongera said:
I meant the territorial concessions as an example.
The Greeks fight against the best Ottomans in Eastern Thrace, which distracts them from fighting the Commonwealth troops that land on the Gallipoli Peninsula during the campaign, which could lead to better results. However the naval battles that went on, the Entente needs to avoid the mines and perferably sends more ships to try to force open the Dardanelles (with more troops for the ground campaign).
The Ottoman ground troops that will be fighting will be forced to split between an determined Greek attack and an determined Commonwealth attack, which will be supported by the navy which will be moving up the peninsula.

The british also needs to land troops as soon as possible, not 6 weeks to give the Ottomans time to prepare for the inevitable landings. Ottomans fighting unprepared against determined British and Greek forces could collapse or surrender while trying to retreat in the direction of Constantinople. Hence not as determined resistance from the Turks as in IOTL.

Any other ideas/suggestions etc?
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Look at a map. Greece does not share border with Ottomans. Did you plan to violate Bulgarian neutrality or load the Greeks on Entente ships and land them at Gallipoli too?

Also, you should look at where the divisions were at 6 weeks earlier, where the supplies were at, and where the merchant shipping is at. While it may be possible to move up the landings, it may not be possible. You would have to do the research. And if we delay the naval operations until the land operations OTL, we are giving the ottomans more time to prepare their sea defenses.

I am not saying that their are no PODs to get Greece into the war in 1915, but there are limits to logistics and diplomatic consequences. It would be a fascination TL, if you wanted to work out the details to make it plausible. Or if not, just do it in ASB section, it would be interesting there too. To me, the most fascinating thing is what happens in the UK government to make them give such an incredibly generous offer. Giving Cyprus to Greece is like giving Malta and Tunisia to Italy to enter in August 1914. Fascinating TL, hard to see Entente make offer.
 

Dementor

Banned
It should be noted that Bulgaria did not join the Central Powers until six months after the Gallipoli operation started. So the Entente would not be offering Greece Bulgarian territory (or Northern Macedonia, which is part of Serbia). Also, considering how close the decision to join the Central powers was in OTL (and the failure of the Gallipoli operation), it's rather likely that this will swing Bulgaria into joining the Entente - to whom they would be far more useful in an case.
 

Dementor

Banned
BlondieBC said:
Sure, it is a dramatic enough POD, it could change things, but my guess is Gallipoli will still fail.

The history of Italy and Romania indicate that it would likely take few months to negotiate the deal, and with the sweet terms you offered, I see why the Greeks accept. Now especially since both parts of Bulgaria are offered and parts that Bulgaria want, I see Bulgaria entering the war at about the same time.

I take "right before the campaign" to be begin mobilizing within a week of the launch of the attack. Greece would mobilize slowly, as would Bulgaria, by either French or German standards. Greece likely moves to secure it new lands. It will clash with Bulgaria in rough terrain, and likely stalemate the lines. How did you see the first few months of land battles playing out?
Click to expand...
Why would the allies alienate Bulgaria to get Greece to join the war? The Entente was trying to get both to join, but Bulgaria was far more useful in the war against the Ottomans due to its stronger armed forces and direct border with the Ottomans. In this scenario Greece will not be able to contribute anything to the war with the Ottomans and the Entente may need to intervene to help Greece. It seems entirely counterproductive.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Dementor said:
Why would the allies alienate Bulgaria to get Greece to join the war? The Entente was trying to get both to join, but Bulgaria was far more useful in the war against the Ottomans due to its stronger armed forces and direct border with the Ottomans. In this scenario Greece will not be able to contribute anything to the war with the Ottomans and the Entente may need to intervene to help Greece. It seems entirely counterproductive.
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Because the thread author asked a what if that included these lands. You have to ask him what POD he sees doing this. I don't think it is ASB because Zimmerman was dumber, but the UK have some strange decision making in this ATL.
 

Tongera

I used the territorial concessions as an example, not exactly would be offered.

What if Bulgaria join the Central Powers side earlier in the war? Could Greece get involved then?

Edit: Just realised why this won't work properly, Greece doesn't share a border with the Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria does. That is why i propose Bulgaria loses the border it lost at the end of WW1 to Greece, loses it in the 2nd Balkan War instead or Greece moves further East during the 1st Balkan War after grabbing Salonika.

What do you think?
 
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rohala

Banned
At this point in time whenever there is was a discussion about Greece going to war with Turkey -and there was a lot-, the main concern for Greece was that Bulgaria would intervene on the Turkish side, and Bulgaria is strong. So, even if Greece actually posessed Western Thrace, she would not attack Turkey without knowing Bulgaria's stance.

Also, there was no reason for the Entente to promise any more concessions than Anatolian lands. Really, Greece was about to go to war against Turkey in summer 1914 over the Aegean dispute, and again, before Gallipoli the Greek PM offered a Greek Corps to the British for the operation, although the Greek General Staff protested such plans mostly in fear of Bulgaria, as well as believing that the Entente operation was going to end in a fiasco due to bad planning (-it did). Both in Feb 1915 and in Sep 1915 all Greece wanted to join was some guarantee towards Bulgaria which was never given.
 

Tongera

rohala said:
At this point in time whenever there is was a discussion about Greece going to war with Turkey -and there was a lot-, the main concern for Greece was that Bulgaria would intervene on the Turkish side, and Bulgaria is strong. So, even if Greece actually posessed Western Thrace, she would not attack Turkey without knowing Bulgaria's stance.

Also, there was no reason for the Entente to promise any more concessions than Anatolian lands. Really, Greece was about to go to war against Turkey in summer 1914 over the Aegean dispute, and again, before Gallipoli the Greek PM offered a Greek Corps to the British for the operation, although the Greek General Staff protested such plans mostly in fear of Bulgaria, as well as believing that the Entente operation was going to end in a fiasco due to bad planning (-it did). Both in Feb 1915 and in Sep 1915 all Greece wanted to join was some guarantee towards Bulgaria which was never given.
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If guarantee to Bulgaria was given?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The Dardanelles Campaign is stacked with potential PODs, but I don't think an earlier entry of Greece into the war would be one of them.
 

rohala

Banned
Tongera said:
If guarantee to Bulgaria was given?
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A guarantee against Bulgaria would either have to be Bulgaria joining the Entente or sufficiently strong Anglo-French forces (ie at least some 150,000 men) to reinforce Greece and Serbia against possible Bulgarian action.
 

Tongera

rohala said:
A guarantee against Bulgaria would either have to be Bulgaria joining the Entente or sufficiently strong Anglo-French forces (ie at least some 150,000 men) to reinforce Greece and Serbia against possible Bulgarian action.
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That may be able to be done early in the war, i.e the Gallipoli Campaign happens earlier in 1915 or 1914? A strong force in Serbia and Greece and Gallipoli succeeding will probably deter them, hopefully.
 

Andreas

A successful Gallipoli seems to be a quite popular POD, although most relevant threads have concluded it's ASB. Nevertheless, I still have some questions on that...

But, let's take things from the start:

1. In order to have Greece joining the campaign, Constantine has to be out of the picture. The best POD on that is that George survives the assasination attempt of Schoinas in 1913. That way we have both the government and the crown on the Entente side from the beggining of the war. Otherwise, a coup is needed, but this is not certain if it succeds, since the crown had a lot of dedicated high rank officers, while the majority of the Greeks were seeing Constantine as a war hero.

2. Given the above, the next problem is Bulgaria. The Entente wanted both Greece and Bulgaria on her side, arranging concessions to both of them. Venizelos had agreed on Bulgaria getting Kavala after the war, while Greece was to get Ionia, but not Eastern Thrace, since the latter was on Russia's share. If things went like the initial Entente plan, Bulgaria would attack Eastern Thrace, while the greeks would participate in the Callipoli campaign. Otherwise, many believe that Bulgaria was never intenting joining the Entente, and was only buying time. In that case i can see the bulk of Greek forces staying in Macedonia, while a corps will be participating in Callipoli.

3. Some insist that the Ottoman defence in Callipoli was not possible to break. I object, since if Greece participated, there would be three crucial differences than OTL: a) The Greek troops participating would not just add manpower to the campaign, but also a quality contribution: Greeks had already fought two wars (Balkan I & II), so they were veterans, and acustomed to fight against machine guns and modern artillery in a mountainous terrain, and they had proven they could afford all the casualties necesary, b) the latter aplies also for the Greek Navy, which means that a Dardanelles entry would be more insisting, c) the Greek Navy had the experience of cooperating with air forces, and if that knowledge was materialised by the British too, thing at the Dardanelles could be also different.

4. Nevertheless, even if the Callipoli campaign succeded, if Bulgaria is not on Entente's side, I' m almost sure she would join the CP and the Ottoman Empire in the event of British and Greek troops in Eastern Thrace. In that case large reinforcements by the British and French would be needed in order to maintain a Thracian front, while more reinforcements would be necesary for the Macedonian front in order to maintain Greek and Serbian defence in Macedonia. Of course, there's the point of OE surrendering if Constantinople falls fast, and in that case the Russians could move troops in Thrace, and even keeping Bulgaria out of the war.
 

Tongera

How would the Russians get their troops in Constantinople? They are fighting the Germans and Austrians on the Eastern Front and the Ottomans in the Caucuses, they have no land route to send troops and need the troops for the fronts i mentioned above.
 
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