Siege of Leningrad: Breakout?

Hope y'all don't kill me for this.

So, does anyone feel it is plausible that the Soviets could have had an agent within Nazi Germany capable of alerting them of the oncoming Operation Barbarossa, even if the information came just days (or, from an easier timeline standpoint, weeks?) away, making the Russians still unprepared, but less so then OTL?

In turn, would this make it possible for the Germans to put the Russians at Leningrad under siege for some amount of time, but not enough, making the Russians able to break out in Mid-42 or early 43, in turn making the Germans having to retreat under the risk of being outflanked bad by the Russians?

Thanks for any reply.

Brian Carter said:

Hope y'all don't kill me for this.

So, does anyone feel it is plausible that the Soviets could have had an agent within Nazi Germany capable of alerting them of the oncoming Operation Barbarossa, even if the information came just days (or, from an easier timeline standpoint, weeks?) away, making the Russians still unprepared, but less so then OTL?

In turn, would this make it possible for the Germans to put the Russians at Leningrad under siege for some amount of time, but not enough, making the Russians able to break out in Mid-42 or early 43, in turn making the Germans having to retreat under the risk of being outflanked bad by the Russians?

Thanks for any reply.

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The Soviets knew the approxiamate invasion date for Operation Barbarossa. Stalin just didn't believe it.

Tongera said:

The Soviets knew the approxiamate invasion date for Operation Barbarossa. Stalin just didn't believe it.

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They did? Sorry, I'm not too familiar with my Russian Front stuff, might need to look into to it more. Is there any possibility you could manipulate a timeline so Stalin could believe it?

Brian Carter said:

They did? Sorry, I'm not too familiar with my Russian Front stuff, might need to look into to it more. Is there any possibility you could manipulate a timeline so Stalin could believe it?

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Just make him trust the spy more that sent the dates to him and make him prepare appropriately. The Germans would probably get stalemated.

Alright, I'll do that, but my original idea was to focus, rather than on an overall front, just a Breakout from Leningrad in December 42', which would in turn result in the Germans pulling out from Stalingrad, correct?

If I can't make that work, I'll focus on an area of a Stalemate.

Brian Carter said:

Alright, I'll do that, but my original idea was to focus, rather than on an overall front, just a Breakout from Leningrad in December 42', which would in turn result in the Germans pulling out from Stalingrad, correct?

If I can't make that work, I'll focus on an area of a Stalemate.

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I think Hitler was too Megalomic to let the Germans forces pull out of the city that bore the name of his arch enemy, so unless Army Group North is absolutely crushed by Soviet forces and completely destroyed, i can't see Hitler allowing the Germans to pull out of Stalingrad.

Tongera said:

I think Hitler was too Megalomic to let the Germans forces pull out of the city that bore the name of his arch enemy, so unless Army Group North is absolutely crushed by Soviet forces and completely destroyed, i can't see Hitler allowing the Germans to pull out of Stalingrad.

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So I'd need to take the Soviet Troops in Leningrad and attempt to cut off the Germans in Stalingrad, and they would of course need to also take the Leningrad-Moscow Railroad, correct?

Of course, I would assume Moscow would need to send some units down to reinforce this Army Group hauling butt from Leningrad to crush the Germans in Stalingrad and to assist the Leningrad Group's Breakout?

Brian Carter said:

So I'd need to take the Soviet Troops in Leningrad and attempt to cut off the Germans in Stalingrad, and they would of course need to also take the Leningrad-Moscow Railroad, correct?

Of course, I would assume Moscow would need to send some units down to reinforce this Army Group hauling butt from Leningrad to crush the Germans in Stalingrad and to assist the Leningrad Group's Breakout?

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Use the Soviet troops in the north to crush the German troops in the north, hence Army Group North.

Tongera said:

Use the Soviet troops in the north to crush the German troops in the north, hence Army Group North.

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Haha, good point. My bad.

The Siege of Leningrad lasted as long as it did for three reasons: 1) Terrain, which necessitated both Army Group North and its Soviet enemies wound up fighting in a sector of the Front where small-unit actions were predominant, 2) that the Germans in the 1941 battles inflicted some of the worst individual Soviet defeats in this sector and presented the Soviets with a terrible logistical situation, as here the failings of MP-40 were at their most lethal, and 3) Leningrad was a sector where neither side's focuses on their respective mechanized warfare doctrines could apply for the first two reasons, and both sides refused to accept this and kept trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole. This is why AGN was ultimately forced to retreat but kept itself intact to the degree it did in the Courland Pocket: the Soviet armies in the north never developed mechanized warfare with the skill their fellows further south did in the time that lapsed from the relief of the Siege to VE Day.

Germans couldnt do much because of the combination of inferior quality of massive number of tanks and bad planning to keep them supplied when engaged in combat. Next in line is not yet ready Molotov Line and general chaos connected with the Soviets having been in the process of building bunkers and airports and manning all.

Leningrad was part of the whole operation. Its fate hanged mostly on what was happening in the south and on the resiliance of the people trapped in the siege.

Good Points

Snake Featherston said:

The Siege of Leningrad lasted as long as it did for three reasons: 1) Terrain, which necessitated both Army Group North and its Soviet enemies wound up fighting in a sector of the Front where small-unit actions were predominant, 2) that the Germans in the 1941 battles inflicted some of the worst individual Soviet defeats in this sector and presented the Soviets with a terrible logistical situation, as here the failings of MP-40 were at their most lethal, and 3) Leningrad was a sector where neither side's focuses on their respective mechanized warfare doctrines could apply for the first two reasons, and both sides refused to accept this and kept trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole. This is why AGN was ultimately forced to retreat but kept itself intact to the degree it did in the Courland Pocket: the Soviet armies in the north never developed mechanized warfare with the skill their fellows further south did in the time that lapsed from the relief of the Siege to VE Day.

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Good points all...Another factor was that the Finns were not willing to surge past the territory lost in the Winter War.

Cam the not-so-great said:

Good points all...Another factor was that the Finns were not willing to surge past the territory lost in the Winter War.

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If the Finns helped with the siege, then i can see the city surrendering.

b12ox said:

Germans couldnt do much because of the combination of inferior quality of massive number of tanks and bad planning to keep them supplied when engaged in combat. Next in line is not yet ready Molotov Line and general chaos connected with the Soviets having been in the process of building bunkers and airports and manning all.

Leningrad was part of the whole operation. Its fate hanged mostly on what was happening in the south and on the resiliance of the people trapped in the siege.

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Ah, no. The Leningrad sector saw Kuznetsov outnumbered 3:1, a defensive plan that didn't count at all on the Germans attacking Leningrad to the south, and idiotic tactical handling on the part of the Soviets that saw things like the border battles costing Kuznetsov 90% of his armor well before the Germans even get to Leningrad in the first place. When they get there, this is the area of the Eastern Front most directly comparable to Italy in the west: terrain nullifies most of the advantages in manpower and firepower, enabling German tactical virtuosity to do what it does best and to inflict a serial set of horrific losses on Soviet soldiers for very little gain. This is an area of the Front where you see in a sense Russia's version of the WWI Western Front: gruesome losses that mean they actually won the war here without ever breaking Army Group North.

If we want a German Army Group that performs the best in a warwaging sense, Army Group North is it. The Soviets did prevail ultimately in the attrition battles, but as Narva showed AGN never really faced the best Soviet tactical performances of the war.

Cam the not-so-great said:

Good points all...Another factor was that the Finns were not willing to surge past the territory lost in the Winter War.

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And of course there's the other factor that AGN was fighting for most of the war in a secondary theater. It's worth reflecting that this Army Group was never broken, it held out at Courland to VE Day. That says just a little about the kind of people it was facing.

Tongera said:

If the Finns helped with the siege, then i can see the city surrendering.

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I think this would mean that Germans either blackmail Finns to do this (Finland was dependent on German grain) or Germans achieve a great victory somewhere making Finns to believe to their final victory more than IOTL.

General Tirpitz said:

I think this would mean that Germans either blackmail Finns to do this (Finland was dependent on German grain) or Germans achieve a great victory somewhere making Finns to believe to their final victory more than IOTL.

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Or the Finns are more aggressive (perhaps more casaulties/territory lost in the Winter War?).

Tongera said:

Or the Finns are more aggressive (perhaps more casaulties/territory lost in the Winter War?).

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Finns were actually very scared of that they will be seen as a part of the Axis (which they weren't in their own opinion). There is also the fact that already in autumn 1941 there were people (including Mannerheim) who have started to lost faith for the German army to achieve their objectives as it was becoming clear that there won't be a quick victory. The war itself was even called the "Summer War" in Finland originally.

Originally Posted by b12ox
Germans couldnt do much because of the combination of inferior quality of massive number of tanks and bad planning to keep them supplied when engaged in combat. Next in line is not yet ready Molotov Line and general chaos connected with the Soviets having been in the process of building bunkers and airports and manning all.

Leningrad was part of the whole operation. Its fate hanged mostly on what was happening in the south and on the resiliance of the people trapped in the siege.

Click to expand...

Snake Featherston said:

Ah, no. The Leningrad sector saw Kuznetsov outnumbered 3:1, a defensive plan that didn't count at all on the Germans attacking Leningrad to the south, and idiotic tactical handling on the part of the Soviets that saw things like the border battles costing Kuznetsov 90% of his armor well before the Germans even get to Leningrad in the first place. When they get there, this is the area of the Eastern Front most directly comparable to Italy in the west: terrain nullifies most of the advantages in manpower and firepower, enabling German tactical virtuosity to do what it does best and to inflict a serial set of horrific losses on Soviet soldiers for very little gain. This is an area of the Front where you see in a sense Russia's version of the WWI Western Front: gruesome losses that mean they actually won the war here without ever breaking Army Group North.

If we want a German Army Group that performs the best in a warwaging sense, Army Group North is it. The Soviets did prevail ultimately in the attrition battles, but as Narva showed AGN never really faced the best Soviet tactical performances of the war.

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my bad, i meant Soviets not Germans(the first word)

General Tirpitz said:

Finns were actually very scared of that they will be seen as a part of the Axis (which they weren't in their own opinion). There is also the fact that already in autumn 1941 there were people (including Mannerheim) who have started to lost faith for the German army to achieve their objectives as it was becoming clear that there won't be a quick victory. The war itself was even called the "Summer War" in Finland originally.

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Certainly, Finns were the first Axis soldiers to notice they were being led into hell and reacted accordingly. Finnish top rank never tried to hide it from the common soldier, unlike the german. Germans were to be marched like sheep.