AHC: Hungarian Soviet Republic survives

[wolf_brother]

Basically what it says on the tin. Have the Magyarországi Tanácsköztársaság last until at least the 1940s.

[Lord Grattan]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Basically what it says on the tin. Have the Magyarországi Tanácsköztársaság last until at least the 1940s.

Several decades of shock, terror, repression, mass arrests, executions and other atrocities - Just imagine.

[KACKO]

Originally Posted by Lord Grattan

Several decades of shock, terror, repression, mass arrests, executions and other atrocities - Just imagine.

But can you imagine Czechoslovak-Romanian-Austrian/ German alliance against Hungarian communism?

[whitecrow]

Originally Posted by Lord Grattan

Several decades of shock, terror, repression, mass arrests, executions and other atrocities - Just imagine.

And that's different from OTL fascist regime that took root...how?

[MSZ]

It is difficult, as even if the HSR was not to be invaded by Romania in 1919 because of Siebenburgen, it's remaining neighbours would find a reason to invade regardless. And without support, it is unlikely to survive - the only possible support coming from Soviet Russia.

So the most possible way for this too happen is for the Red Army to "save the day". For example, rather than going for the Ukraine in 1919, Lenin decides to move southwards along the Black Sea and into Romania, forcing it to move its army to Besarabia. Romania loses, Hungary keeps/gets Siebenburgen by forming an alliance with Russia, detering Czechoslovakia from taking action. Romania is occupied by communists as well.

Originally Posted by whitecrow

And that's different from OTL fascist regime that took root...how?

Millions, rather than thousands die for starters...

[deathscompanion1]

Originally Posted by MSZ

It is difficult, as even if the HSR was not to be invaded by Romania in 1919 because of Siebenburgen, it's remaining neighbours would find a reason to invade regardless. And without support, it is unlikely to survive - the only possible support coming from Soviet Russia.

So the most possible way for this too happen is for the Red Army to "save the day". For example, rather than going for the Ukraine in 1919, Lenin decides to move southwards along the Black Sea and into Romania, forcing it to move its army to Besarabia. Romania loses, Hungary keeps/gets Siebenburgen by forming an alliance with Russia, detering Czechoslovakia from taking action. Romania is occupied by communists as well.





Millions, rather than thousands die for starters...

Wouldnt Britian and France assist Romania and Czechoslovakia?

[Lord Grattan]

Originally Posted by whitecrow

And that's different from OTL fascist regime that took root...how?

No difference aside from the label on the regime.

[Red Cesar]

And what makes you thing millions are going to die?

What makes you think a Marxist regime, independent from Moscow, would be way worse then the fascist regime that occupied the nation instead?

Proof? Statistics?

[deathscompanion1]

Originally Posted by Red Cesar

And what makes you thing millions are going to die?

What makes you think a Marxist regime, independent from Moscow, would be way worse then the fascist regime that occupied the nation instead?

Proof? Statistics?

In order to suvive it would not be independent from Moscow.

[MSZ]

Originally Posted by deathscompanion1

Wouldnt Britian and France assist Romania and Czechoslovakia?

Hard to say. They did interfere in the Russian Civil War, they clearly weren't super happy about bolshevik expansion - but they weren't exactly determined to stop it at all costs. The Finland, Poland, Baltic States got very little support overall, and only token French/British military forces were present.

Hungary would be treated as another area of bolshevik expansion. Ultimately, neither France nor Britain were willing to take on the Red Army, so if the Red Army is present in Hungary, I doubt they would act. If it was only the "Hungarian Red Army", then maybe - but just maybe. More likely allow Czechoslovakia and Romania to fight against it, drop some guns, give political support - but no manpower. It would thus fall on the Hungarians to stop that alliance. They failed OTL, but that was in a large degree due to very poor organization on their part - they simply weren't ready for a war. Assuming Romania doesn't act longer because of being tied up with Russia in the north-east, that would buy them time.

Czechoslovakia is a threat to territorial integrity, but not existence. Prague has no reason to fight a war with Hungary. The Slovaks want land, but also have no reason to destroy the HSR. A settlement can be potentially found there, especially if the Hungarians could play the Slovak card well (for example, accept their full independence in more ethnic borders than OTL and promise to protect against Prague's ambitions for forming Czechoslovakia).

[KACKO]

Originally Posted by MSZ

especially if the Hungarians could play the Slovak card well (for example, accept their full independence in more ethnic borders than OTL and promise to protect against Prague's ambitions for forming Czechoslovakia).

But they didn't play it well. Instead they tried to create East Slovak nationality and later actually created Slovak communist state in Eastern Slovakia, which head was actually Czech communist.
As one of leaders of Slovak nationalists, Andrej Hlinka said, 1000 year marriage with Hungary failed. Czechs were not a thread to Slovak nationalists yet.

[MSZ]

Originally Posted by KACKO

But they didn't play it well. Instead they tried to create East Slovak nationality and later actually created Slovak communist state in Eastern Slovakia, which head was actually Czech communist.
As one of leaders of Slovak nationalists, Andrej Hlinka said, 1000 year marriage with Hungary failed. Czechs were not a thread to Slovak nationalists yet.

No, they did not. But they could have, if for example, they realised quickly the folly of trying to keep Crown of Istvan lands as a Union of Hungarian Social Soviet Republics, but were more savvy like Lenin, promising others independence to temporarly reduce pressure. They don't need to be honest about granting Slovaks independence - once Slovaks have it, they can defend it themselves, with the Hungarians realising they won't be able to march into "Upper Hungary" without a fight - especially a multi front one.

[Sam R.]

Originally Posted by Lord Grattan

No difference aside from the label on the regime.

Uhh, nope. Horthy was one of the mildest fascists in Europe, and the conception of the racial community under Horthy was primarily lingual and cultural, rather than blood or ethnicity. The Social Democrats weren't banned.

In contrast the radical social-democratic syndicalists driving the Hungarian revolution has all of the anti-democratic centralising tendencies of Lenin[1], but tended much more strongly to be rooted in the working class. The working class was also isolated in the cities in a way in which it wasn't in 44/45 or 56. To a much greater extent than later Hungarian revolutions, the revolution was isolated and anti-democratic. At best, after a period of mobilisation economy you might get something like Titoism. Actually, young Rakosi without a Stalin might very well do this. The rural policy matters quite a bit, something the sd syndicalists have absolutely no knowledge about.

So actually radically different responses to the need to modernise Hungary's economy; radically different conceptions of the purpose and nature of state repression; and, very different day to day effects of the state on society.

yours,
Sam R.

[1] Hungarian social democracy was isolated and urban, but the impulse behind the revolution came more from radical syndicalists with concrete experience of union work; in comparison to Russia's parties being relatively disconnected from concrete proletarian organisation. This is not necessarily a good thing.

[wolf_brother]

Alright, I think the consequences are well understood, or at least the basics there, but how would such a thing come about? What series of events is required for the HSR to survive?