Leningrad Falls in German hands on Sept 15, 1941

Leningrad Falls into German hands on Sept 15, 1941

In OTL ... Stalin is informed from a German Military Communique that Shlisel'burg has fallen into German Hands and thus threatens the defense of Leningrad and Stalin relieves the hapless Voroshilov with Zhukov to defend Leningrad...

What If Soviet Marshal Kliment Voroshilov, Commander of the Leningrad Front at the NorthWestern Direction, had started the destruction of all Soviet military fortifications and installations within Leningrad that allowed the Germans to finally break thur and capture most of the wrecked defenses of the City of Leningrad partially intact...?

Timeline ---

Sept 8, 1941.
Shlissel'burg falls Sept 8, 1941, Marshal Voroshilov is at the end of his tether as German General Von Leeb's Army Group North continues to bombard and advance closer with Motorized & Armoured elements creeping ever closer to the Suburbs of Leningrad.

Voroshilov plans to set off demolitions among Leningrad's fortifications and demonish military installations in anticipation of continuing German advances within the Suburbs of Leningrad.

His NKVD Military & Political Commissar wearily agrees likewise but they are heavily distracted from another frontline report of another German breakthrough and fails to send the military communique to Kremlin HQ about their plan to start adding demolitions to demolish all Soviet Military fortifications and installations within Leningrad proper.

This distraction also causes Voroshilov to not report that Shlissel'burg has fallen into German hands, thus endangering the Soviet lines defending Leningrad.

Sept 10, 1941.
A German Communique forwarded from a Soviet Embassy in a neutral land is sent for evaluation to a exhausted Soviet NKVD military analyst that has been on duty for twenty-four hours without relief.
It states that German Forces of Army Group North have captured Shlisel'burg and are advancing towards the broken lines of the Soviet Defense Forces defending Leningrad.

The sleep-deprived Soviet NKVD Military Agent finally falls dead-asleep on his chair, the German Communique still within his weary hand and his assistant walks in and pulls the military report from his exhausted hand and places it aside with a bottle of vodka on top, totally forgetting it as he drags his superior to his resting cot to sleep off his exhaustion.
The German Military Communique is totally forgotten and is never delivered nor translated into Russian for further evaluation by STAVKA command nor by Stalin himself.

Sept 11. 1941
Voroshilov begins the demolitions of all forward fortifications and starts demolishing all Soviet military installations within Leningrad to deprive the Germans from using Leningrad as a staging area for further usage.

Soviet Civilians start to evacuate from the City Proper upon early warnings from Soviet NKVD troops whom have start destroying all installations ...

Sept 12. 1941
Soviet 8th Army starts starts moving Eastwards from their Western positions and advance German units notice this withdrawal and starts advancing to take advantage of the exposed posts left unmanned by retreating Soviet units.

The Soviet 55th Army, defending the SouthWestern approaches to Leningrad, are hard-pressed to hold off German General Von Leeb's advancing Motorized and Armoured from their drive Northwards while German Infantry units drive Eastwards into the suburbs of Leningrad.

The Soviet 23rd Army defending the NorthWestern lines against the Finns are starting their withdrawal from their forward posts in a chaotic fashion back into Leningrad upon hearing and viewing the demolitions and demonishment of Soviet military Installations and hearing the order from Marshal Voroshilov that they must hold their posts as long as possible so that they can complete the destruction of Soviet installations and then withdraw back thru Leningrad and across Lake Lagoda and Kirovsk.

Elements of the Finnish Army facing the Leningrad Front reports that Soviet Troops are leaving their forward posts and that their troops are now occupying former Soviet trenches and entering the outer Northern suburbs Of Leningrad.

Sept 13. 1941
STAVKA and Stalin are getting alarming reports from the 54th. Soviet Army that streams of escaping Soviet civilians from a now smoking city of Leningrad are crossing from Lake Lagoda and the with elements of retreating Soviet units escorting them out Eastwards of the town of Kirovsk.

Continue calls or status reports from STAVKA to Marshal Voroshilov is unanswered as the battle progresses bitterly beyond the Suburbs of Leningrad and into the City Proper...

Sept 15. 1941
Soviet Armies 8th., 23rd., 42nd., & 55th. finally escape with nearly half of their original combat strength among with three-quarters of the civilian population of Leningrad are meet by an astonish 54th. Soviet Army as they start sorting out the escaping civilians out of harms way while diverting the elements of the surviving Four Soviet Armies to the Rear to regroup and prepare to defend the now shattered Leningrad Front as German units now continue to smash into the wrecked city of Leningrad.

Marshal Voroshilov is reported missing among with most of his General Staff and more than One Hundred Soviet Troops have been either been captured, wounded or reported missing since the end of the Demoliton and Destruction of all Soviet military posts within Leningrad proper..

A Furious Stalin orders that Former Soviet Marshal Voroshilov is relieved of his command and his arrest warrant is issued and that he is to be delivered to Moscow for imprisonment and be shot for dereliction of duty to the Soviet State for failing to hold Leningrad.

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What would be the consequences to the Soviet Union if Leningrad's fortifications and military installations had been demolished by an unnerved Voroshilov and the Germans and Finns were finally able to capture wrecked Leningrad and link their units and moved forward more Eastward in Sept. instead of merely staging a siege on Leningrad from the last German Offensive attempt in Oct & Nov of 1941...?

The Soviets would never evacuate Leningrad voluntarily given they failed to do IOTL when the German advance was irresistible. The more likely probability here is that an extra corps gives the Germans time to bag the whole city, and then the Germans go into the Rape of Leningrad and after that German is spoken in Hell and Switzerland. The Germans will spend the time unleashing a massacre that'd make Babi Yar pale by comparison, as to them it was the exact same war using different methods. When the news gets out of what they've done, and believe me 1941 Germany's going to be bragging and strutting about this, Germany's political delusions in WWII are dead. German objectives for this campaign included the wholesale annihilation of Leningrad, so any claim that the same people responsible for Babi Yar and all the large-scale massacres of 1941 suddenly grow a conscience and a moral backbone require reams of citations.

I like the short TL. Command and Control was horrible for the Soviets early, and one more mistake is easy to see. So Leningrad falls due to additional Soviet mistakes.

IMO, it will be post war before "Lake Leningrad" can be implemented. It is not a war winner for Germany. Germany probably lasts weeks to months longer, and the Soviets have more casualties. The line of control between Nato and Warsaw pact is farther east, maybe.

The port will be the largest help for the Germans, who can now ship goods to Leningrad, then by rail. With the damage done and ice season, it is probably a Spring/Summer 42 before this helps. I am not sure if the Finns would have advance much more than OTL, or just stopped in place. Maybe with better supplies, Murmansk can be shut down.

It probably helps the Germans a little in the battle for Moscow, but I don't see a huge benefit.

The Germans were lucky enough not to storm the city, best Hitlers decision in the war. They would have turned it to another Stalingrad and early disaster. Winning Leningrad wouldnt have taken them much forward. Leningrad as industraial center was important but not crucial. They crippled it with the encirclment and bombardments while taking the city would have been a great propgandist vistory, but the nothern front was a secodary theater. The resources alocated to Army Group North may have been better spent in the south in drive toward Volga and Moscow. Thats all in hindsight of course with a much more pliable Barbarossa with alternative objectives in case of failures and the timer off.

kclcmdr said:

Sept 12. 1941

[snip]

Elements of the Finnish Army facing the Leningrad Front reports that Soviet Troops are leaving their forward posts and that their troops are now occupying former Soviet trenches and entering the outer Northern suburbs Of Leningrad.

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It is unlikely the Finns would have resumed the attack even seeing the Red Army withdrawing. Already in August Mannerheim, President Ryti and Defence Minister Walden had decided that Finland would not under any circumstances take part in the fighting in the Leningrad area and that decision had been relayed to the Germans via General Erfurth. The reasons for stopping the attack were first and foremost political, not military. In fact Mannerheim told Walden that he had made his staying as the Finnish commander in chief conditional on not attacking Leningrad.

As the Finnish troops reached Leningrad's outer defensive zone, Mannerheim ordered the attack stopped on the 9th. Continuing it would have needed for both him and the government's inner circle to totally change their minds in a couple of days, which I see as highly unlikely. The troops here would not move on the initiative of frontline commanders, either - they were under strict orders from the commander in chief.

BlondieBC said:

I like the short TL. Command and Control was horrible for the Soviets early, and one more mistake is easy to see. So Leningrad falls due to additional Soviet mistakes.

IMO, it will be post war before "Lake Leningrad" can be implemented. It is not a war winner for Germany. Germany probably lasts weeks to months longer, and the Soviets have more casualties. The line of control between Nato and Warsaw pact is farther east, maybe.

The port will be the largest help for the Germans, who can now ship goods to Leningrad, then by rail. With the damage done and ice season, it is probably a Spring/Summer 42 before this helps. I am not sure if the Finns would have advance much more than OTL, or just stopped in place. Maybe with better supplies, Murmansk can be shut down.

It probably helps the Germans a little in the battle for Moscow, but I don't see a huge benefit.

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Entirely wrong. The Germans aren't waiting for a "postwar" here, to them the slaughter of Leningrad and the war against the Western Front is all the same to them. What this does is get it through even the thick skulls of the Hitler fanboys of the 1940s that the only peace Nazis want is the peace of the graveyard, ensuring that Germany better enjoy its war as its peace will be a nightmare.

b12ox said:

The Germans were lucky enough not to storm the city, best Hitlers decision in the war. They would have turned it to another Stalingrad and early disaster. Winning Leningrad wouldnt have taken them much forward. Leningrad as industraial center was important but not crucial. They crippled it with the encirclment and bombardments while taking the city would have been a great propgandist vistory, but the nothern front was a secodary theater. The resources alocated to Army Group North may have been better spent in the south in drive toward Volga and Moscow. Thats all in hindsight of course with a much more pliable Barbarossa with alternative objectives in case of failures and the timer off.

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Actually they were lucky, for a different reason. A European Rape of Nanking kills any prospect of Germans ending the war in any other way other than unconditional surrender, enabling the Allies to take the gloves off with impunity.

Snake Featherston said:

Actually they were lucky, for a different reason. A European Rape of Nanking kills any prospect of Germans ending the war in any other way other than unconditional surrender, enabling the Allies to take the gloves off with impunity.

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And since when did the Allies ever have the gloves on?

Vegetarian was stopped due to practical difficulties and fear of retaliation.

Bomber command under Haris did it's best to level Germany and considered massive civillian casualties as a bonus.

The Americans had a plan to wipe Germany of the face of the earth but decided that a weak germany would let the Soviets dominate europe.

The Russians never held back ever.

In the long run, it doesn't change the outcome of the war. In the short term, freeing up some additional corps of the area means those resources could be used to stabilize the Moscow Front in December 1941, and to give more support for Case Blue in 1942. All either means is the Germans have a better frontline in 1943. At best, the end of the war in Europe is delayed by another six months.

I think Snake is wrong about the Germans though. The Nazis always denied or hid the truth about their atrocities, and they'll do the same in Leningrad. They'll definitely cry in triump over the city fall, but they aren't going to announce they've massacred the city's population. "Removed for labor work" or some other euphemism probably. The truth will become known, and the world outraged when the Red Army finally reaches the city in 1944 or so. They' simply be more war crimes to try at Nuremberg. The idea that Germany will be expunged from the Earth except for the Swiss is just silly. But Snake has several pet ideas that he repeats constantly that have only a loose basis in reality.

The only interesting thing this POD creates is the possibility that Finland might be able to sign a peace with the Soviet Union and end its Continuation War with the return of land taken in 1940 and perhaps even other parts of Karelia. Certainly Stalin would have liked that. The Finns refused, probably because they didn't want to be seen as stabbing the Germans in the back and open themselves up to an invasion by the Nazis. With Leningrad fallen, Finland may be able to argue their role is done, and Hitler may even accept it and allow the Finns to leave the war (or course, he may still insist they stay in until Murmansk falls).

deathscompanion1 said:

And since when did the Allies ever have the gloves on?

Vegetarian was stopped due to practical difficulties and fear of retaliation.

Bomber command under Haris did it's best to level Germany and considered massive civillian casualties as a bonus.

The Americans had a plan to wipe Germany of the face of the earth but decided that a weak germany would let the Soviets dominate europe.

The Russians never held back ever.

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From the first. The Soviets wanted to control Germany since the Leninist period, and they certainly did hold back given what they were actually quite able to do to the Gerrmans in 1945 but forebore from doing (like hanging anyone German with a connection to the SS or the Wehrmacht, as should have been done). The claim that the Soviets did not hold back is worth reflecting on given that the Nazis went into the USSR with the clear goal of annihilating Slavic civilization in its (as they saw it) last stronghold where the Soviets went into Germany with the rather more normal impulses of looting and plunder.

Snake Featherston said:

Actually they were lucky, for a different reason. A European Rape of Nanking kills any prospect of Germans ending the war in any other way other than unconditional surrender, enabling the Allies to take the gloves off with impunity.

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Except things will remain too busy for the Germans to do this, even if they want to

They didn't even raze warsaw in the 5 years they held the city including 11 months between the fall of france and barbarossa where none of their ground forces where really doing much of anything

The war will not stop just because the Germans take leningrad, AGN's infantry and mobile forces will be drawn to attack north and east; the germans simply will not have the manpower to do more than a few warsaw style murder sprees (and the einsatzgruppen were overwhelmed without an additional 3 million to take out)



on the OP

the germans taking the city that late is unlikely IMO, their best bet would be an earliler destruction of the leningrad military district on the dvina followed by a rapid unopposed-ish conquest

practical results... the baltic becomes a german lake, and ships can take up some of the slack for AGN's supplies allowing some of their engineering and quartermaster assets to be transferred to army group center along with a decent amount of their armor and air support (as the terrain north and east of leningrad sucked for armored/blitz ops anyway)

the soviets suffer a major blow to presitage which could see them being approved for lend lease delayed somewhat more than otl

this may even get leeb out of hitler's doghouse (although IMO he probably deserved his place there for lack of competence and rampant insubordination)

BlairWitch749 said:

Except things will remain too busy for the Germans to do this, even if they want to

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Just like how the Rostov Campaign impeded Babi Yar, right?

BlairWitch749 said:

They didn't even raze warsaw in the 5 years they held the city including 11 months between the fall of france and barbarossa where none of their ground forces where really doing much of anything

The war will not stop just because the Germans take leningrad, AGN's infantry and mobile forces will be drawn to attack north and east; the germans simply will not have the manpower to do more than a few warsaw style murder sprees (and the einsatzgruppen were overwhelmed without an additional 3 million to take out)

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Warsaw wasn't to be razed, it was to be demoted to a provincial town while the Poles were to be slaughtered regardless of creed or religion. The Nazis wanted this as one of their major objectives. If Hitler says yes and the generals say no, the generals get sacked and Hitler gets what he wants.

BlairWitch749 said:

the germans taking the city that late is unlikely IMO, their best bet would be an earliler destruction of the leningrad military district on the dvina followed by a rapid unopposed-ish conquest

practical results... the baltic becomes a german lake, and ships can take up some of the slack for AGN's supplies allowing some of their engineering and quartermaster assets to be transferred to army group center along with a decent amount of their armor and air support (as the terrain north and east of leningrad sucked for armored/blitz ops anyway)

the soviets suffer a major blow to presitage which could see them being approved for lend lease delayed somewhat more than otl

this may even get leeb out of hitler's doghouse (although IMO he probably deserved his place there for lack of competence and rampant insubordination)

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On the contrary, they get more Lend-Lease than IOTL and the democracies lose any illusions tat the Nazis are the kind of people any kind of negotiated peace is conceivable or useful to, while Cold War-style rhetoric in WWII becomes politically impossible until Germany is clearly in its death throes. The Allies' Lend Lease IOTL was motivated by the desperate fear of a Soviet collapse, this only strengthens that fear over OTL.

Blackfox5 said:

In the long run, it doesn't change the outcome of the war. In the short term, freeing up some additional corps of the area means those resources could be used to stabilize the Moscow Front in December 1941, and to give more support for Case Blue in 1942. All either means is the Germans have a better frontline in 1943. At best, the end of the war in Europe is delayed by another six months.

I think Snake is wrong about the Germans though. The Nazis always denied or hid the truth about their atrocities, and they'll do the same in Leningrad. They'll definitely cry in triump over the city fall, but they aren't going to announce they've massacred the city's population. "Removed for labor work" or some other euphemism probably. The truth will become known, and the world outraged when the Red Army finally reaches the city in 1944 or so. They' simply be more war crimes to try at Nuremberg. The idea that Germany will be expunged from the Earth except for the Swiss is just silly. But Snake has several pet ideas that he repeats constantly that have only a loose basis in reality.

The only interesting thing this POD creates is the possibility that Finland might be able to sign a peace with the Soviet Union and end its Continuation War with the return of land taken in 1940 and perhaps even other parts of Karelia. Certainly Stalin would have liked that. The Finns refused, probably because they didn't want to be seen as stabbing the Germans in the back and open themselves up to an invasion by the Nazis. With Leningrad fallen, Finland may be able to argue their role is done, and Hitler may even accept it and allow the Finns to leave the war (or course, he may still insist they stay in until Murmansk falls).

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Actually they didn't, not in Central Europe. They were quite explicit that they were shooting people for no reason other than Terror, while you can't hide the murder of 1,000,000+ people in one go. Sorry people, this is the perfect scenario to unleash Operation Vegetarian and to see the USSR encourage its own soldiers in 1945 or whenever to be just as criminal as the Nazis wanted their soldiers to be. Given what happened when the draconian Soviet disciplinary system broke down, if the Soviets wanted to retaliate blood for blood with the Germans, there is every reason to see that as a literal apocalypse.

In real life, nobody murders over 1 million people and can pretend it canbe covered up, especially in one of Europe's biggest and oldest cities. And when the Germans do that shit, Germans won't have a civilization afterward. It's one thing to kill Slavs when you haven't done anything too unforgiveable, but when you do that to a major European city, the Germans ITTL will be lucky to see the Bronze Age by the 24th Century. This is not to say that this is a good thing, it if anything would illustrate the nightmarish horror that was at the heart and soul of WWII. ITTL the Germans have permanently destroyed any idea that they can ever be trusted again. And this means for them an ending of WWII too horrible in some ways to imagine.

Snake Featherston said:

but forebore from doing (like hanging anyone German with a connection to the SS or the Wehrmacht, as should have been done).

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So how connected to the Wehrmacht and SS do you believe people should have been in order to be mass executed by the Red Army and NKVD for besides being members?

Blackfox5 said:

The only interesting thing this POD creates is the possibility that Finland might be able to sign a peace with the Soviet Union and end its Continuation War with the return of land taken in 1940 and perhaps even other parts of Karelia. Certainly Stalin would have liked that. The Finns refused, probably because they didn't want to be seen as stabbing the Germans in the back and open themselves up to an invasion by the Nazis. With Leningrad fallen, Finland may be able to argue their role is done, and Hitler may even accept it and allow the Finns to leave the war (or course, he may still insist they stay in until Murmansk falls).

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The problem is of course how Hitler would take Finland trying to bow out early. In many ways Finland was absolutely dependant on Germany in '41-'44, food being chief amongst them, and Germany could close the Baltic from Finnish trade at will. And let us not forget that the German units of the XXXVI Gebirgskorps would be in nearly complete control of Finnish Lapland.

Any fear of retaliation by Germany, that is any negative response from Hitler to mere suggestions of making early peace with Stalin, and the Finnish leadership is not going to risk it. Because of this, Finland is unlikely to make a peace with the Soviet Union in a position of strength: crossing Germany when they are still in a position to reduce Finland into a starving people sitting amongs smouldering ruins, possibly occupied, is too much of a gamble.

Either Germany crushes the USSR and Finland gets to share some of the spoils or then Finland has to deal with a Soviet Union victorious over Germany, with the problems that entails (and did IOTL). After an out-and-out German victory maybe only a German-Soviet peace through mutual exhaustion could possibly allow Finland to get comfortably out of the Continuation War with real gains.

It seems that the Germans would cross the Neva and advance up the Ladoga coast to cut off supply that way, or cross the Volkov and cut the Ladoga barge traffic from the south. Any attack into the city would get held up at some point. Most cilivilians were trapped in the city because first priority was to evacuate industry. The Germans were close to cutting this supply OTL (Thikvin).

So if the Germans do better somehow without the barge traffic the city will starve and either individually or collectively the city will try to surrender at some point. If the Germans really follow the Hitler plan and hold the ring and shoot anybody who tries to surrender, I suspect the civilian polulation would go north to Finnish lines and surrender there. This will lead to some immediate squabbling since the Finns will need help to feed these people and might just send them all to some point on their front and return them to the Soviets. In the winter without food it will be the death march for sure, and everybody in the world will soon know.

How much does this delay the Soviets ?

jmc247 said:

So how connected to the Wehrmacht and SS do you believe people should have been in order to be mass executed by the Red Army and NKVD for besides being members?

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In practical terms they wouldn't really need any connection at all any more than the Soviet civilians shot in cold blood by Germans were either members of the Communist Party or Jews. This is by no means defending such reprehensible brutality, it's simply noting the all too horrific results of such an atrocity in the event the Allies let a German army survive to 1945 with a Germany to fall back on. One atrocity never justifies another, and if I sound like that, I'm setting that straight right now: this would be an evil, reprehensible thing in all the worst ways.

Sorry I forgot to subscribes

Army Group North OOB is below



AGN had Two Infantry Armies and One Armoured Army

18th Army had 7 German Infantry Divisions
16th Army had 7 German Infantry Divisions
4th Armoured had 3 Tank Divisions, 3 Motorized Divisions and 2 Infantry Divisions
In reserve would be 1 Security Division, 5 Infantry Divisions and assorted Brigades and Regiments

What percentage of these two German Armies' exhausted Infantry Divisions be still at good combat strength after a possibly rather lengthly attrition struggle to break and hold Leningrad and be refitted and used again in combat after Sept 41 is up to speculation...