Dutch Luxembourg

Rhaegar I

Rhaegar I

I was looking at a map of Europe after the Congress of Vienna, and I noticed that Netherlands had Belgium and Luxembourg in its borders. I knew Belgium seceded after an independence war, but I wondered how Netherlands and Luxembourg went their separate ways. A quick look at Wikipedia told me Luxembourg was in a personal union with the Dutch monarchy, which lasted until 1890, when William III died. Afterwards, Netherlands went to Wilhelmina, while Luxembourg (which was still governed by Salic Law, which forbids women from getting thrones) went to Adolphe, leaving the two separate.

My question is: What if this never happened. Suppose either the Salic Law is not enforced or Wilhelmina is born a boy. Either way, a Butterfly Net makes sure nothing major changes until William III dies and his successor gets Netherlands and Luxembourg.

So, how will Europe change with this tiny duchy in Dutch hands? I personally doubt anything will change until WWI, when German's war plans will have to change dramatically to either ignore or include a certain country. And assuming the monarch lives just as long, will Netherlands and Luxembourg officially merge into a single state after a while?
 

pompejus

It is relatively easy for Luxemburg to remain in personal union with the Netherlands. Willem III had three sons, who all died before their father and without leaving any children. With a couple of butterflies you can get them to marry and have some (male) kids and so continue the personal union.
 
Rhaegar I

Rhaegar I

pompejus said:
It is relatively easy for Luxemburg to remain in personal union with the Netherlands. Willem III had three sons, who all died before their father and without leaving any children. With a couple of butterflies you can get them to marry and have some (male) kids and so continue the personal union.
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Interesting. So let's say one of them lived longer. Based on what we know about the sons, which one would be the most interesting to sit on the throne?
 

pompejus

John Mighty said:
Interesting. So let's say one of them lived longer. Based on what we know about the sons, which one would be the most interesting to sit on the throne?
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Well, the middle son died when he was 6 because of Meningitus, so we don't know much about him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Maurice_of_the_Netherlands

The oldest had a lot of problems with his father, because he wanted to marry a girld, which his father didn't approve of (according to rumours because she could be his half-sister). He basicly gambled and drank a lot.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Prince_of_Orange

The youngest son was an intellectual, but sickly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander,_Prince_of_Orange
 
Rhaegar I

Rhaegar I

pompejus said:
Well, the middle son died when he was 6 because of Meningitus, so we don't know much about him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Maurice_of_the_Netherlands

The oldest had a lot of problems with his father, because he wanted to marry a girld, which his father didn't approve of (according to rumours because she could be his half-sister). He basicly gambled and drank a lot.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Prince_of_Orange

The youngest son was an intellectual, but sickly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander,_Prince_of_Orange
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William doesn't seem like someone you want on any throne, and there are too many WIs with Maurice, so let's say Alexander was a little less sick. An intellectual on the throne can be interesting, and if he does marry Infanta Marie Anne of Portugal, it does limit the butterflies, since IOTL she married the Duke of Luxembourg anyway. Let's say he lives as long as Wilhelmina (82), so he dies in 1933. Unless I'm mistaken, nothing major will change until WWI, since Germany will now have to either not invade Luxembourg or put Netherlands into their war plans.
 

Theodoric

John Mighty said:
So, how will Europe change with this tiny duchy in Dutch hands? I personally doubt anything will change until WWI, when German's war plans will have to change dramatically to either ignore or include a certain country.
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I'm not so sure that would be the case. There was international rumbling in OTL over Luxembourg, as Germany and France both fought over control; this also had major repercussions in Dutch politics, as everyone was getting rather pissed at Willem III playing feudal overlord over a neighbour (without giving parliament a say). I don't think things would calm down much in later years despite the OTL Treaty of London; of course, Willem III stepping down/dieing solved a lot of these problems; he wasn't that good of a ruler. Or person.

Things are definitely going to get weird in WWI, though.
 
Rhaegar I

Rhaegar I

Theodoric said:
I'm not so sure that would be the case. There was international rumbling in OTL over Luxembourg, as Germany and France both fought over control; this also had major repercussions in Dutch politics, as everyone was getting rather pissed at Willem III playing feudal overlord over a neighbour (without giving parliament a say). I don't think things would calm down much in later years despite the OTL Treaty of London; of course, Willem III stepping down/dieing solved a lot of these problems; he wasn't that good of a ruler. Or person.

Things are definitely going to get weird in WWI, though.
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Too true. But if Alexander sat on the throne (assuming he is a reasonably intelligent person), he could probably calm the situation down to a reasonable level.

I agree. WWI should be quite curious. I wonder which one is more likely: leave Luxembourg alone, or hope Alexander will be a gracious host.
 

Detlef

You could perhaps also change the heritage law a bit earlier.
In our TL, Luxembourg abandoned the Salic Law in 1907. Due to the fact the House of Nassau didn´t have a legitimate male heir.
Do it 20 years earlier....

Of course in our TL there was a real possibility of a succession crisis (with the Salic Law in force) while in 1890 Luxembourg still had a clear successor besides Wilhelmina.
 

pompejus

A couple of things I would like to add:
First, I doubt that apersonal union will lead to Luxemburg actually becoming Dutch. If Belgium had remained Dutch it probably would have, but without it Luxemburg will probably remain separate.

Secondly the most important difference of a continuing personal union would be World war one. Because of butterflies it might be avoided, but lets assume it is not (probably the most likely scenario). i can see a couple of things that might happen.

Germany continues with his plans like OTL. The Netherlands ignores Germany going through Luxemburg. WWI goes just like OTL. Possible, the Netherlands was a democracy (although not a full democracy). The fact that the Dutch king is also Grand duke of Luxemburg does not mean the Dutch parliament declares war on Germany. It didn't realy care for Luxemburg anyway.

Germany continues with his plans like OTL. The Netherlands declares war on Germany. Germany attacks the Netherlands too (possibly at the same time as Belgium, as it expects the Netherlands to support Luxemburg). The Netherlands is occupied (or maybe the Dutch can stop the Germans at the waterline and is just partially occupied).

The third option is that Germany forces the Dutch to hand over Luxemburg, without the Netherlands getting involved in the war.

The last option is that Germany forces the Netherlands to join the central powers. It makes clear that it will attack Luxemburg and that the Netherlands will get involved in the war and they can either choose to become occupied by the Germans or join forces with the Germans and avoid that. The end result will be that the Netherlands loses Luxemburg (and Limburg and Zeelandic Flanders) to Belgium after the war (and its colonies to the UK and/or USA).
 
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Rhaegar I

Rhaegar I

pompejus said:
A couple of things I would like to add:
First, I doubt that apersonal union will lead to Luxemburg actually becoming Dutch. If Belgium had remained Dutch it probably would have, but without it Luxemburg will probably remain separate.

Secondly the most important difference of a continuing personal union would be World war one. Because of butterflies it might be avoided, but lets assume it is not (probably the most likely scenario). i can see a couple of things that might happen.

Germany continues with his plans like OTL. The Netherlands ignores Germany going through Luxemburg. WWI goes just like OTL. Possible, the Netherlands was a democracy (although not a full democracy). The fact that the Dutch king is also Grand duke of Luxemburg does not mean the Dutch parliament declares war on Germany. It didn't realy care for Luxemburg anyway.

Germany continues with his plans like OTL. The Netherlands declares war on Germany. Germany attacks the Netherlands too (possibly at the same time as Belgium, as it expects the Netherlands to support Luxemburg). The Netherlands is occupied (or maybe the Dutch can stop the Germans at the waterline and is just partially occupied).

The third option is that Germany forces the Dutch to hand over Luxemburg, without the Netherlands getting involved in the war.

The last option is that Germany forces the Netherlands to join the central powers. It makes clear that it will attack Luxemburg and that the Netherlands will get involved in the war and they can either choose to become occupied by the Germans or join forces with the Germans and avoid that. The end result will be that the Netherlands loses Luxemburg (and Liburg and Zeelandic Flanders) to Belgium after the war (and its colonies to the UK and/or USA).
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That last one is an interesting option. Beyond Rwanda-Burundi, Belgium didn't really get much out of WWI. That would be an interesting bonus. As for Netherlands's various colonies, the UK and France are going to end up extremely happy, since they are the only ones who could even attempt to claim any of them.

Any other ideas?
 

Vnix

Another interesting option would be that Germany, France and Belgium stay out of Luxembourg and it remains a sort of safe haven in the middle of the warzone where all sides meet and trade a bit.
 

wietze

one other thing also need to remember, Wilhelmina was considered to be the saviour of the royalty because after 3 kings with rather bad habits, the thought was that a 4th bad king would have meant the end of the monarchy.
If the successor of Willem III is indeed a bad king, I agree there is a big chance that support for monarchy goes downhill, probably leading to abandoning of it.
or on the other hand one of his sons stays alive long enough to succeed him and live on long enough to see salic law vanish in lux.

not sure if during a alt ww1 here they would also attack the netherlands or even try to force the netherlands into the CP (would not work anyways, because they understood britain would take any chance to steal colonies). the netherlands was just too important as a way to import goods. most likely will be that the netherlands will accept the fact that lux is occupied by the germans as a fact but don't declare war.

a 4th option would be that germany chooses for a defensive strategy in the west because of too much risk in case they also have to take on the netherlands (less chance to fulfill the main objective, taking out france).
of course they just could bypass lux, and just go through the belgian ardennes.

But with a male surviving heir i still think that by the time a WW arrives the status of lux. would have changed anyways.
 

Vnix

having the Germans adopt a defencive strategy in the west could be interesting, especially if France then decides to invade Germany through Belgium and Dutch Luxembourg.

SO having Luxembourg remain Dutch may change the entire course of history
 
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