With a POD of 1900, what was the best Austria-Hungary's could have done between 1900 and today?
Best case for Austria-Hungary?
- Thread starter Jiraiyathegallant
- Start date
scholar
Banned
Remain united until today, either the same size, slightly larger, or a lot smaller. Larger may be worse off for Austria-Hungary, even if it lasts to the modern day. Smaller might be best.
If you can find a way to keep the union but lose the monarchy you could possibly develop a strong Austrian-Hungarian-Czech led central European republic.
no way A-H empire could survive long term. it was miracle it survived as long as it did.
Alex Richards
Donor
I think you could have a Cisleithania (minus Galicia) Austria-Bohemia as the Slovenes were relatively content and there are enough Germans in Bohemia-Moravia as of 1900 that they can help moderate Czech nationalism.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
What about Dalmatia, Bosnia and Istria- Gorizia? They were part Cislethania too.
Also the Czechs and Slovenes were not as content as you think. The Slovenes were weak, but they feared Germanization. The Czechs more than often demanded autonomy, and a Magyar deal for themselves.
If you get rid of WWI and make the war after the assasination of FF just an affair between A-h and Serbia you have bought some more years the empire...she will get a slow death with the Magyar become defacto indepedent and the various etnicity demand more autonomy or democratic reform, in all probability she will not survive to see the 30's at best
FF doesnt get killed and forces the Hungarians to accept a federation or triple kingdom
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Greater_Austria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Greater_Austria
yourworstnightmare
Banned
FF never really wanted any of that. Like the other Habsburgs he was playing with time, playing divide and conquer hoping for an opportunity to get rid of the parliaments in Vienna and Budapest and centralize the empire. He played the Slav card to keep the Magyars in line and keep the South Slavs somewhat compliant. But any reform that would weaken the Habsburgs was a great no. A federation would make the monarchy almost redundant, while a Triple Monarchy would introduce a third parliament, and the Habsburgs already felt there were two too many.
Alex Richards
Donor
Bosnia wasn't, it was completely seperate. Dalmatia's a lost cause, but Istria-Gorizia might be a possibility.
I wasn't aware about that with the Slovenes. They might be able to be bought off with a level of cultural autonomy though. For the Czechs, I was thinking of a probable Dual Monarchy, aided through the message that a full cessation from the realm will be met with demands (probably with the threat of German backing) to allow the Germans to counter seceed, and as 38 proved Bohemia-Moravia just isn't a sustainable and secure state without those territories.
Actually, I think Austria-Hungary can stay together, and I think it could even prosper quite a bit without a lot of strife. All you need is for the option for the various minorities to be worse than staying in the Empire. Then the nationalism will be directed at autonomy, preserving the language, handling taxes locally etc, like for example Welsh nationalism.
By 1914, Franz Ferdinand had abandoned the federation plan and wanted a centralised state with a single national parliament - but with equal voting rights for all citizens, regardless of language, and rights to use your own language in your own part of the Empire.
We also need to make the situation in a lot of countries around Austria-Hungary worse (at least compared to the Empure) for the minorities to think twice or thrice about wanting to be part of another nation rather than the Empire.
By 1914, Austria-Hungary was one of the fastes growing economies on earth. Russia grew more in percent, but Austria-Hungary grew more in absolute numbers. This was miamly driven by Austria and Bohemia-Moravia, with the other areas lagging behind, especially the Hungarian part of the Empire. Centralised services such as the post office, railroads and pensions for army and state employees were holding the Empire together quite a bit (a Polish conductor was cited saying 'The Empire cannot fall, who will pay my pensions?').
So, first we need to avoid ww1 to let the Empire grow more economically and grow together better. Without the stress of ww1, I suppose Franz Joseph will live a bit longer, but he will probably still die before the 1917 Ausgleich. The Hungarians planned to get everything short of complete autonomy, and Franz Ferdinand would have none of it. The Hungarian nobility would over-play their hand, over-estimate the support of other ethnic groups in Hungary (mainly Romanians, Croats, Serbs, Slovaks) and of their own people. Gerrymandering and land ownership rules had disenfranchised most people in the Hungarian part of the Empire and let the Hungarian nobility run the parliament. The Hungarian serfs (more or less still, even though serfdom had been abolished) was voting with their feet and leaving to emigrate, mainly to USA in massive numbers.
We also need to Balkans to be more of a mess to make Croats, Slovenes and Servs in the Empire think that things are not too bad where they are. A more extended Serb pariah status after the murder of the royal family 1903 (OTL, the French still worked with the Serbs and sold arms) and thus a longer, more bloody and messed up 1st and 2nd Balkans War - with the Ottomans doing better and perhaps with Romanian participation, and Russian intervention against Romania to support Bulgaria (not Serbia) can set things up nicely.
Romania now hates Russia for the intervention. Serbia is weaker, more of a pariah and cannot count on Russian support. Bulgaria is perhaps a bit better off, the Ottomans have done far better and the massive ethnical cleansing of muslims from the Balkans cannot happen to the same extent, because the Ottomans are stronger, not as soundly defeated and the Balkan countries are weaker. The Balkan countries are still looking more to the Ottomans and less to Austria-Hungary, they are weaker and hate each other more. Ethical strife and ethnic cleansing of muslims turn into bloody guerilla wars as the muslims resist, probably with some money coming from the Ottomans, especially as they become more flush with cash developing the oil fields in Arabia and Iraw (no ww1, remember?). Suddenly life in Bosnia, under the oh so oppresive thumb of the Austrians seem quite nice to the Serbs living there. What? Railroads, sewers, no cholera or turbercolosis epedemics? No strife and guerilla warfare? Lots of jobs? Can speak my own language at the courts, with the administration and in school? Sounds peachy!
The Czechs is a bigger problem. Perhaps tying their economical and industrial success to customs treaties and infrastructure set up and operated by the Austrians? Imperial German designs on the Sudet could help - some crazy undiplomatic comment by Wilhelm II when he is informed that Czech nationalists want to have their own state along the lines of "Then we must of course protect our brothers in the Sudet if that happens. The army would march within two days." He was good at making such offhand comments that made diplomats cringe - and it could have the Czechs cringe as well. Some trouble in the Polish parts of Germany and some comments about Slavs in the wake of souring German-Russian relations could have the Czechs think that they'd be awfully alone with a hostile powerful neighbour to the north if they went their own way.
Then we have the Poles - they are not a big problem. They were pretty happy in Austria - they had it better than the Poles in Russia, at any rate. As long as there's no Polish state, they'll be rather content.
The Italians are probably not a big problem. They never showed any big natioanlistic tendencies. Have Italy have slightly bigger issues integrating the north and the south, amd bog down against the Ottomans in Libya. Some socialist riots fired upon by the military and other not so nice things in Italy could have the Italians in the Empire think they'd be better of to stay put.
So, to sum things up;
1911: The Italians bog down in Libya in a multiyear campaign against Omar Mukhtar and Ottoman forces. The Ottomans, while lacking a strong navy to punch back, still launch pinprick attacks that shame the Italian navy (mostly by torpedo boats). Eventually, the Italians get Tripolitania, while the Ottomans retain Cyrenaica.
1912-13: 1st Balkan War. Serbia (but not Montenegro, since they want nothing to do with Serbia due to the extended pariah status), Greece and Bulgaria attack the Ottoman Empire. The Serbians are less well armed due to their pariah status and Greece still suffers from the 1897 bankrupcy. The Bulgarians make most gains, but things are far more bloody and the Ottomans do better. When peace is concluded, the Ottomans still control a small strip of land from Thrace to Albania. 2nd Balkan war sees Bulgaria do far, far better, until Romania intervenes and crushes Bulgaria. Russia intervenes against Romania, saving Bulgaria.
1914: No assassination of Franz Ferdinand. No ww1.
1917: Franz Joseph dies, Franz Ferdinand is crowned Emperor and Karl crowned hier. Ausgleich happens. Franz Ferdinand refuses to be crowned and uses some riots in Budapest as an excuse to call up the army to crush the Hungarian nobility. The Hungarians fight for a while, before running out of supplies. They have no international support, their own minorities are fighting against them, Russia is threatening to intervene, they have little to no industry to support their Honved, and much of their own people are avoiding conscription. The Hungarian nobility is crushed. A land reform takes place and the two parliaments merged into one. Franchise is extended to all male citizens, regardless of property ownership. All citizens gain the right to petition the government, go to school and work with the administration in their local language in their local area.
Franz Ferdinand is first a uniting figure for his victory and prestige and 'freeing' the minorities in the Hungarian part of the Empire. Later he becomes a unifying factor in another way - as he fights the parliament about his right to appoint a government and parliamentarism, losing the battle in the early 20s. His resistance unites many ethnic groups and parties against him and show them that they can work together over language and ethnic barriers.
1925: The Empire is prosperous, peaceful and a nice place to live as parliamentarism and regional autonomy increases. Sure, there are nationalists, but few listen to fringe groups advocating their own states, after all, life is pretty good in the Empire, is it not? Would you rather live in Romania, paying all those indemnities to Russia and trying to keep a large army at the same time? Or in Serbia, where no-one will go, fighting muslim guerillas in Kosovo. There's work, the pensions are coming on time every month, the trains run decently on schedule, lots of jobs and investments to make, and chances to climb both the political and economical ladder.
Under these circumstances, I think the Empire could very well survive into modern times - if another nation falls to communism, living in the Empire will be even better, too.
Remember, that it took 4 years of the most brutal war ever seen in mankind's history and 80% casualties before the Empire started to collapse, and it was not until the state started collapse that people really turned to the nationalist groups en masse, as they were the only organised option.
By 1914, Franz Ferdinand had abandoned the federation plan and wanted a centralised state with a single national parliament - but with equal voting rights for all citizens, regardless of language, and rights to use your own language in your own part of the Empire.
We also need to make the situation in a lot of countries around Austria-Hungary worse (at least compared to the Empure) for the minorities to think twice or thrice about wanting to be part of another nation rather than the Empire.
By 1914, Austria-Hungary was one of the fastes growing economies on earth. Russia grew more in percent, but Austria-Hungary grew more in absolute numbers. This was miamly driven by Austria and Bohemia-Moravia, with the other areas lagging behind, especially the Hungarian part of the Empire. Centralised services such as the post office, railroads and pensions for army and state employees were holding the Empire together quite a bit (a Polish conductor was cited saying 'The Empire cannot fall, who will pay my pensions?').
So, first we need to avoid ww1 to let the Empire grow more economically and grow together better. Without the stress of ww1, I suppose Franz Joseph will live a bit longer, but he will probably still die before the 1917 Ausgleich. The Hungarians planned to get everything short of complete autonomy, and Franz Ferdinand would have none of it. The Hungarian nobility would over-play their hand, over-estimate the support of other ethnic groups in Hungary (mainly Romanians, Croats, Serbs, Slovaks) and of their own people. Gerrymandering and land ownership rules had disenfranchised most people in the Hungarian part of the Empire and let the Hungarian nobility run the parliament. The Hungarian serfs (more or less still, even though serfdom had been abolished) was voting with their feet and leaving to emigrate, mainly to USA in massive numbers.
We also need to Balkans to be more of a mess to make Croats, Slovenes and Servs in the Empire think that things are not too bad where they are. A more extended Serb pariah status after the murder of the royal family 1903 (OTL, the French still worked with the Serbs and sold arms) and thus a longer, more bloody and messed up 1st and 2nd Balkans War - with the Ottomans doing better and perhaps with Romanian participation, and Russian intervention against Romania to support Bulgaria (not Serbia) can set things up nicely.
Romania now hates Russia for the intervention. Serbia is weaker, more of a pariah and cannot count on Russian support. Bulgaria is perhaps a bit better off, the Ottomans have done far better and the massive ethnical cleansing of muslims from the Balkans cannot happen to the same extent, because the Ottomans are stronger, not as soundly defeated and the Balkan countries are weaker. The Balkan countries are still looking more to the Ottomans and less to Austria-Hungary, they are weaker and hate each other more. Ethical strife and ethnic cleansing of muslims turn into bloody guerilla wars as the muslims resist, probably with some money coming from the Ottomans, especially as they become more flush with cash developing the oil fields in Arabia and Iraw (no ww1, remember?). Suddenly life in Bosnia, under the oh so oppresive thumb of the Austrians seem quite nice to the Serbs living there. What? Railroads, sewers, no cholera or turbercolosis epedemics? No strife and guerilla warfare? Lots of jobs? Can speak my own language at the courts, with the administration and in school? Sounds peachy!
The Czechs is a bigger problem. Perhaps tying their economical and industrial success to customs treaties and infrastructure set up and operated by the Austrians? Imperial German designs on the Sudet could help - some crazy undiplomatic comment by Wilhelm II when he is informed that Czech nationalists want to have their own state along the lines of "Then we must of course protect our brothers in the Sudet if that happens. The army would march within two days." He was good at making such offhand comments that made diplomats cringe - and it could have the Czechs cringe as well. Some trouble in the Polish parts of Germany and some comments about Slavs in the wake of souring German-Russian relations could have the Czechs think that they'd be awfully alone with a hostile powerful neighbour to the north if they went their own way.
Then we have the Poles - they are not a big problem. They were pretty happy in Austria - they had it better than the Poles in Russia, at any rate. As long as there's no Polish state, they'll be rather content.
The Italians are probably not a big problem. They never showed any big natioanlistic tendencies. Have Italy have slightly bigger issues integrating the north and the south, amd bog down against the Ottomans in Libya. Some socialist riots fired upon by the military and other not so nice things in Italy could have the Italians in the Empire think they'd be better of to stay put.
So, to sum things up;
1911: The Italians bog down in Libya in a multiyear campaign against Omar Mukhtar and Ottoman forces. The Ottomans, while lacking a strong navy to punch back, still launch pinprick attacks that shame the Italian navy (mostly by torpedo boats). Eventually, the Italians get Tripolitania, while the Ottomans retain Cyrenaica.
1912-13: 1st Balkan War. Serbia (but not Montenegro, since they want nothing to do with Serbia due to the extended pariah status), Greece and Bulgaria attack the Ottoman Empire. The Serbians are less well armed due to their pariah status and Greece still suffers from the 1897 bankrupcy. The Bulgarians make most gains, but things are far more bloody and the Ottomans do better. When peace is concluded, the Ottomans still control a small strip of land from Thrace to Albania. 2nd Balkan war sees Bulgaria do far, far better, until Romania intervenes and crushes Bulgaria. Russia intervenes against Romania, saving Bulgaria.
1914: No assassination of Franz Ferdinand. No ww1.
1917: Franz Joseph dies, Franz Ferdinand is crowned Emperor and Karl crowned hier. Ausgleich happens. Franz Ferdinand refuses to be crowned and uses some riots in Budapest as an excuse to call up the army to crush the Hungarian nobility. The Hungarians fight for a while, before running out of supplies. They have no international support, their own minorities are fighting against them, Russia is threatening to intervene, they have little to no industry to support their Honved, and much of their own people are avoiding conscription. The Hungarian nobility is crushed. A land reform takes place and the two parliaments merged into one. Franchise is extended to all male citizens, regardless of property ownership. All citizens gain the right to petition the government, go to school and work with the administration in their local language in their local area.
Franz Ferdinand is first a uniting figure for his victory and prestige and 'freeing' the minorities in the Hungarian part of the Empire. Later he becomes a unifying factor in another way - as he fights the parliament about his right to appoint a government and parliamentarism, losing the battle in the early 20s. His resistance unites many ethnic groups and parties against him and show them that they can work together over language and ethnic barriers.
1925: The Empire is prosperous, peaceful and a nice place to live as parliamentarism and regional autonomy increases. Sure, there are nationalists, but few listen to fringe groups advocating their own states, after all, life is pretty good in the Empire, is it not? Would you rather live in Romania, paying all those indemnities to Russia and trying to keep a large army at the same time? Or in Serbia, where no-one will go, fighting muslim guerillas in Kosovo. There's work, the pensions are coming on time every month, the trains run decently on schedule, lots of jobs and investments to make, and chances to climb both the political and economical ladder.
Under these circumstances, I think the Empire could very well survive into modern times - if another nation falls to communism, living in the Empire will be even better, too.
Remember, that it took 4 years of the most brutal war ever seen in mankind's history and 80% casualties before the Empire started to collapse, and it was not until the state started collapse that people really turned to the nationalist groups en masse, as they were the only organised option.
Why would Russia threaten to intervene against the Hungarians? A_H is the main obstacle to their ambitions and probably hasnt forgotten the "Austrian betrayal" during the Crimean war and even if Bulgaria just succedes as well as OTL there is no strip from Thrace to Albania as they will win the race for Thessaloniki
Russia intervened against the Hungarians 1848 and generally had good relations with the Austrians, despite the "betrayal" of the Crimean War. The Russians had a vested interest in nationalist groups not being victorious - the Hungarians forming their own state could cause the Finns, Poles, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Moldavians, Georgians, Armenians, Ukrainians Turkmens (the list goes on and on with Caucausian and Central Asian ethnic groups) to get inspired. In reality, there was little risk for it, but one should not under-estimate the domino theory thinking of the ruling class of Russia at the time.
What is occupied and what is actually given in a peace after the Balkan wars need not be the same thing if the Ottomans are doing better.
What is occupied and what is actually given in a peace after the Balkan wars need not be the same thing if the Ottomans are doing better.
BlondieBC
Banned
I agreed. Basically avoid WW1. Everyone involved in WW1 in Europe lost, only Japan "won". There are also some quicker war scenarios where A-H does much better than OTL.
One interesting POD would be the 1905 crisis where the emperor has issues sealed orders to his corps to dispose of Hungary. Action here has the potential of handling the issue of the Hungarian nobles and allowing enough revenue into the treasury to allow a full modernization of the A-H army. If you want peace, prepare for war. Hopefully their is a side benefit of A-H being viewed as a credible military threat which will help in international relations.
In either this scenario or Adler's, A-H could have stayed around until the present and been a model multi-ethnic state. A lot of the "best case" depends on the odds you are willing to accept of the events actually happening. A-H only needed to do a few things to survive.
1) Handle the elite of the 5.9% of Hungary.
2) Allow each ethnic group to use their own language in daily life.
3) Handle Southern Pan Slavism.
4) Handle Western Pan Slavism.
Any combination of actions that accomplish all four goals would make A-H survival until modern times likely, but with possibly larger or smaller borders.
What you ask is not so simple (plus the avoiding of WWI), expecially for a ruling class so fearfull of taking any serious risk or diminishing their power as the Hasburg
I'm not sure you need to avoid WW1. In fact, I am not sure it is possible post-1900. You just need to make sure that Austria-Hungary remains uninvolved or only plays a minor role in it.