Whiskey on the Rocks, The Soviet-Swedish War of 1981

[metastasis_d]

The Soviets are really writing checks their asses can't cash here.

[Uruk]

Military Command Gotland

A 7 Gotlands artilleriregemente, Visby. (Artillery Regiment)
KA 3 Gotlands kustartilleriregemente, Fårösund (Coastal artiller Regiment)
Lv 2 Gotlands luftvärnskår, Visby (AA Battalion)
P 18 Gotlands regemente, Visby. (Armor regiment) which forms Gotland Brigade (Mechanized Brigade) on mobilization (MekB 18)

[Jim Smitty]

In Moscow sometime on the first of November, Soviet Leader Leonid Brezhnev died. To this day we don't know if it was a heart attack like, Mikhail Gorbachev said it was, or it he was killed by Gorbachev working with the KGB. As more evidence comes to light, it looks like it was a coup d'état by Gorbachev with the backing of the KGB. But we must take the time to look at each piece of evidence that comes to light, and go over with it a fine tooth come.

But it is known that a number of full and junior members of the Politburo were forced into retirement soon after Gorbachev came to power. This brought in a young group of communist party members, who is given the credit to helping the Soviet Union to turn itself economically later in the 80s. But this is for another class.

The first thing Gorbachev did was telephone Soviet Ambassador to the UN Ambassador Oleg Troyanovsky to agree to the cease fire agreement with Sweden that had been put forward on the 31st. Then Gorbachev ordered the military of the Soviet Union to follow the cease fire, and recall the Baltic Fleet and all aircraft currently over the Baltic.

The Swedish agreed to the cease fire.

In the course of the Soviet-Swedish War of 1981, showed military planners that a number of ideas of their work or didn't work. The main one was the level of munitions expenditure is much high than anyone thought. The Swedish, even with the missiles given to them by NATO nations, only had enough air-to-air missiles for two or three more days of combat. The Soviets had never issued any hard numbers on the munitions expenditure of its forces turning the war, but it has been reported they when on a crash building program after the war was over to rebuild their stocks.

It also show the attack helicopters such as the Mi-24 Hind were very vulnerable to MANPADS systems and fighter aircraft. This showed that you needed heavier armor than you could put on a helicopter. It also clearly show that a modern air force could take control of the sky if they are facing off against a modern air force. Once Swedish pilot after the war, his name was lost to the pages of history that during the war, the sky only being to the dead. This statement was very true, even when the Swedish Air Force was down to a faction of its pre-war size, the Soviets couldn't gain control of the skies.

On the naval front, the patrol of HMS Nacken showed older units had no business in combat. All of the diesel submarines sunk by HMS Nacken was over 20 years old, and not the first one had ever seen an refit. Only one of the submarine sunk in the war had been commissioned in the past five years. It show that fire control and sonar systems were keys in a modern navy.

The Soviet-Swedish War of 1981 was one of the deadest in modern history. In six days over 35,000 people died. Most of these deaths were because of the Battle of Gotland.

The Treaty of Berlin which ended the war was signed in early 1982.

In the after math of the war Sweden, started the path to join NATO. Sweden did join NATO in 1985 In 1989, Sweden join the nuclear power club. This did cause some issues with Soviet Union, but Gorbachev didn't push the issue as much as it was thought he would. This may have been because of the growing economic strength, and the Gorbachev didn't want to risk it anything that would cause this to stop.

In the aftermath of the war the Soviet Union left Afghanistan in early 1982. It also began a massive reformation of its military, with more time spent on training.

Next class we will be going on the South American War of 1982-3.

[Hades]

So we may see an earlier Perestroika and Glastnost because Soviet adventurism went too far? I wonder how the Reagan Administration would respond to this.

[metastasis_d]

Let's hear what's in that treaty!

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Jim Smitty

In the after math of the war Sweden, started the path to join NATO. Sweden did join NATO in 1987 In 1989, Sweden join the nuclear power club. This did cause some issues with Soviet Union, but Gorbachev didn't push the issue as much as it was thought he would. This may have been because of the growing economic strength, and the Gorbachev didn't want to risk it anything that would cause this to stop.

Great TL, but given the massive aggression that Sweden just experienced, it is not any plausible for them to take so long to join NATO. Two-three years at the very most, and one year is quite plausible.

[lukedalton]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

[/SIZE][/FONT]

Great TL, but given the massive aggression that Sweden just experienced, it is not any plausible for them to take so long to join NATO. Two-three years at the very most.

Plus the USSR exit Afganistan so soon after been publicy humiliated by the Sweden is too much. After this licking the Polituburo must reassert to the world that the Soviet Union is a military giant.

[Andre27]

Originally Posted by Hades

So we may see an earlier Perestroika and Glastnost because Soviet adventurism went too far? I wonder how the Reagan Administration would respond to this.

Actually i think the opposite may be true. After the pride of the USSR (it's military) has been humiliated in conventional war (contrary to guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan) the odds of voting in a moderate leader (Gorbatchov ) are slim. It is more likely that another hardliner is voted in "to restore the glorious communist state to its former glory".

[kent]

EXCELLENT!!!!!!

Originally Posted by Jim Smitty

In Moscow sometime on the first of November, Soviet Leader Leonid Brezhnev died. To this day we don't know if it was a heart attack like, Mikhail Gorbachev said it was, or it he was killed by Gorbachev working with the KGB. As more evidence comes to light, it looks like it was a coup d'état by Gorbachev with the backing of the KGB. But we must take the time to look at each piece of evidence that comes to light, and go over with it a fine tooth come.

But it is known that a number of full and junior members of the Politburo were forced into retirement soon after Gorbachev came to power. This brought in a young group of communist party members, who is given the credit to helping the Soviet Union to turn itself economically later in the 80s. But this is for another class.

The first thing Gorbachev did was telephone Soviet Ambassador to the UN Ambassador Oleg Troyanovsky to agree to the cease fire agreement with Sweden that had been put forward on the 31st. Then Gorbachev ordered the military of the Soviet Union to follow the cease fire, and recall the Baltic Fleet and all aircraft currently over the Baltic.

The Swedish agreed to the cease fire.

In the course of the Soviet-Swedish War of 1981, showed military planners that a number of ideas of their work or didn't work. The main one was the level of munitions expenditure is much high than anyone thought. The Swedish, even with the missiles given to them by NATO nations, only had enough air-to-air missiles for two or three more days of combat. The Soviets had never issued any hard numbers on the munitions expenditure of its forces turning the war, but it has been reported they when on a crash building program after the war was over to rebuild their stocks.

It also show the attack helicopters such as the Mi-24 Hind were very vulnerable to MANPADS systems and fighter aircraft. This showed that you needed heavier armor than you could put on a helicopter. It also clearly show that a modern air force could take control of the sky if they are facing off against a modern air force. Once Swedish pilot after the war, his name was lost to the pages of history that during the war, the sky only being to the dead. This statement was very true, even when the Swedish Air Force was down to a faction of its pre-war size, the Soviets couldn't gain control of the skies.

On the naval front, the patrol of HMS Nacken showed older units had no business in combat. All of the diesel submarines sunk by HMS Nacken was over 20 years old, and not the first one had ever seen an refit. Only one of the submarine sunk in the war had been commissioned in the past five years. It show that fire control and sonar systems were keys in a modern navy.

The Soviet-Swedish War of 1981 was one of the deadest in modern history. In six days over 35,000 people died. Most of these deaths were because of the Battle of Gotland.

The Treaty of Berlin which ended the war was signed in early 1982.

In the after math of the war Sweden, started the path to join NATO. Sweden did join NATO in 1985 In 1989, Sweden join the nuclear power club. This did cause some issues with Soviet Union, but Gorbachev didn't push the issue as much as it was thought he would. This may have been because of the growing economic strength, and the Gorbachev didn't want to risk it anything that would cause this to stop.

In the aftermath of the war the Soviet Union left Afghanistan in early 1982. It also began a massive reformation of its military, with more time spent on training.

Next class we will be going on the South American War of 1982-3.

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by lukedalton

Plus the USSR exit Afganistan so soon after been publicy humiliated by the Sweden is too much. After this licking the Polituburo must reassert to the world that the Soviet Union is a military giant.

Originally Posted by Andre27

Actually i think the opposite may be true. After the pride of the USSR (it's military) has been humiliated in conventional war (contrary to guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan) the odds of voting in a moderate leader (Gorbatchov ) are slim. It is more likely that another hardliner is voted in "to restore the glorious communist state to its former glory".

Seconded to both.

Instead of early perestroika, we may instead see a Soviet invasion of Poland to crush Solidarity, and/or renewed efforts to win in Afghanistan, perhaps even direct Soviet intervention against the anti-Communist insurgencies in Ethiopia, Angola, and Mozambique. Quite likely increased Soviet rearmament - which would break the back of their ailing economy sooner.

Now, I wonder who would be a suitable hardliner leader in the early '80s Politburo.

[EternalCynic]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Seconded to both.

Instead of early perestroika, we may instead see a Soviet invasion of Poland to crush Solidarity, and/or renewed efforts to win in Afghanistan, perhaps even direct Soviet intervention against the anti-Communist insurgencies in Ethiopia, Angola, and Mozambique. Quite likely increased Soviet rearmament - which would break the back of their ailing economy sooner.

Now, I wonder who would be a suitable hardliner leader in the early '80s Politburo.

But if Gorby (who never had the stomach IOTL to use guns) did ITTL collude with the KGB to remove Brezhnev, he'll have the guts to impose his liberalization agenda by dirty tricks. This means Gorby will fire the Red Army's top brass and jail them for the defeat. He'll blame and remove certain conservatives in the Politburo for escalating the Swedish war and replace them with his allies. Several Gosplan managers who oversaw the stagnation under Brezhnev will be show-trialed for "incompetence", "sabotage", etc, and then replace them with people more supportive of markets. Finally he'll start a propaganda campaign highlighting Lenin's New Economic Program to justify his market reforms.

Then he'll pursue an economic perestroika before dabbling in a political one. In other words he'll be quite similar to Deng Xiaoping.

[superkuf]

Originally Posted by lukedalton

Plus the USSR exit Afganistan so soon after been publicy humiliated by the Sweden is too much. After this licking the Polituburo must reassert to the world that the Soviet Union is a military giant.

Agree. I guess that the Soviets would start to fight smart in Afghanistan. More airborne troops and Speznaz special forces, no tanks or other WW3 equipment. More serious attempts to build up an allied Afghan army. Then add some combat experience from the Swedish war to the equation (more forward artillery/air support controllers, realistic training, maybe even something like a NCO corps).

The Soviet Union could by this keep Afghanistan at least seemingly under their control for several years without too much losses. But in the end Soviet is doomed. Non-working economy, corruption everywhere, demographic disaster ahead, falling behind the West in technology ... you name it.

On the other hand, the Soviet Union are likely to overreact in other cases such as Solidarity in Poland. And that would have a rather negative effect on the Soviet Union.

Another aspect for the future: How likely would West Germany be to buy Soviet natural gas during the early 80s? If western Europe don't uses Sovet gas mean huge changes for the future - more nuclear power? More exploration of the North Sea for oil and gas? And that would mean far less hard currency for the Soviet Union - a Soviet Union that would need a lot of hard currency to upgrade its military.

During the 80s IOTL Soviet imported a lot of foodstuffs from the West. I guess that ITTL Soviet will have a tougher time about it.

Nitpick: Sweden joined the nuclear powers club in the 1950s. A better term would be "the club of nuclear-weapon countries".

[Jim Smitty]

Originally Posted by EternalCynic

But if Gorby (who never had the stomach IOTL to use guns) did ITTL collude with the KGB to remove Brezhnev, he'll have the guts to impose his liberalization agenda by dirty tricks. This means Gorby will fire the Red Army's top brass and jail them for the defeat. He'll blame and remove certain conservatives in the Politburo for escalating the Swedish war and replace them with his allies. Several Gosplan managers who oversaw the stagnation under Brezhnev will be show-trialed for "incompetence", "sabotage", etc, and then replace them with people more supportive of markets. Finally he'll start a propaganda campaign highlighting Lenin's New Economic Program to justify his market reforms.

Then he'll pursue an economic perestroika before dabbling in a political one. In other words he'll be quite similar to Deng Xiaoping.

Yep this is were I'm going with this.

[lukedalton]

Originally Posted by EternalCynic

But if Gorby (who never had the stomach IOTL to use guns) did ITTL collude with the KGB to remove Brezhnev, he'll have the guts to impose his liberalization agenda by dirty tricks. This means Gorby will fire the Red Army's top brass and jail them for the defeat. He'll blame and remove certain conservatives in the Politburo for escalating the Swedish war and replace them with his allies. Several Gosplan managers who oversaw the stagnation under Brezhnev will be show-trialed for "incompetence", "sabotage", etc, and then replace them with people more supportive of markets. Finally he'll start a propaganda campaign highlighting Lenin's New Economic Program to justify his market reforms.

Then he'll pursue an economic perestroika before dabbling in a political one. In other words he'll be quite similar to Deng Xiaoping.

First, he can't still retreat from Afganistan so soon after the humiliation in Sweden, it's politically impossible...even worse the possibility of a major series of incursion on Pakistan to destroy rebel base is increasead a lot.
Second, if Gorbachev try the move you suggest...there is the high risk that he will be shot.
The next problem is Poland, if Solidarnosc have done anything in support of the Swedish even some minimal symbolic thing, people in Moscow will be seriously worried...there will be the high probability of a direct intervention to quell the polish, even as a demonstration for the other member of the Warsaw Pact that the Soviet Union has just stumble a little and is not fallen. All that will make the cold war a little worse.

Edit; by the time of your coup Breznev health is really bad and there are already plan for his succession...in OTL the job go to Andropov (the leader of the KGB). So it's doubtfoul that the KGB put Gorby (who is one of the younger member of the Politburo) on the throne. It's more plausible that Andropov endorse him on his deathbed as OTL, and after an Afgan war who had escalated in Pakistan, a previous invasion of Poland who had soured the relationship with the west Gorby decide that the first act as a new premier is get rid of the old nomenclature and implement a 'purge' with the aid of the KGB and normalize relationships with the capitalist nation.

[Jim Smitty]

Notes

This will be a part of series of short AH wars I will be doing. I will more than likely publish this series at some point in the future. But this is the first part of the series. Look to the end of the last update as a hint where I will be going.

The Treaty of Berlin, the Soviet admitted the S-363 when into Swedish waters under orders and was caught. They agreed to pay 75,000 US dollars for each civilian who died in the war. If made clear where the Swedish EZE and territory bounties where. The Soviet POWs was the sticky point in the treaty. The Soviets wanted all of their POWs returned to Mother Russia, but a number of POWs had asked for asylum in the west. Mostly there were low level privates taken in the Battle of Gotland, but a few pilots and naval officers taken in the course of the war. Finally the Soviets gave in and allowed these people to defected to the US. A total of 104 prisoners asked for asylum and 99 were given asylum. Most move to US soon after.

The Soviet Union is still around in 2012 ITL, I be it, a much chance state. The Baltic and Caucasus nations are now independence of the Soviet Union, but the Ukraine, and all of the larger states are still a part of the Soviet Union. ITL Soviet Union is more like the PRC from the late 90s, a growing economic power, but its military is much improve, learning from the lessons of the Soviet-Swedish War. But the 80s were much like the Soviets, like the 70s were for America.

But the Soviets show their military was far healthier in the late 80s/early 90s in another war, a war where they have a CB. Maybe a different course in A-stan, not sure there. I just wanted to finish up, so I when with a rapid Soviet pull out.

As to East Germany, In 1991 Gorbachev, and Bush Sr. in his second term come to an agreement over Germany. Germany could stay in NATO, but no NATO troops station in what was East Germany. Training games is one thing, but no station troops in East Germany.

The Romanian Revolution of 1989 still happens, because like East Germany, Nicolae Ceausescu didn't follow the Soviets lead on Soviet economic issues. In the same agreement about Germany, Gorbachev and Bush Sr. reach an agreement on Romania. Romania would become a natural nation, like Austria.

Life in Eastern Europe is still far behind Western Europe in 2012, but it is improving. Again like everything this is a rough idea.

As to Sweden, they join NATO in 1985, and then became a nuclear power in 1989. In 2012 they have 60 nuclear weapons and their bombs have a 50 kiloton yield. These bombs are mounted on license build versions of the Pershing II MRBM on mobile launchers.

The Air Force is made up of fighters, fighter-bombers, and attack aircraft. Notable aircraft is the F-14S a license build version of the F-14 build with Swedish upgrades, and armed with an upgraded version of the AIM-54 Phoenix missiles. The JAS 39 Gripen being the multi-rule fighter bomber. There is also the A-10S a license build version of the A-10 upgrade AGM-65 missiles. They also have a small number of E-2 Hawkeyes for ACAWS, again license build.

As to the Navy, in the aftermath of the Soviet-Swedish war, was force to use a large amount of donated equipment. They finally when with a license build version of the Type 23 frigate for the surface fleet, and smaller craft are of local designs. The Submarines are more or less OTL, just in larger numbers.

The Army is equipped with the Leo 2 for their MBT. Their artillery and small arms are home grown designs, with NATO standard ammo and magazines. They do have MRLS, again a license build design. Their IFV is a home grown design, something akin to the M3 Bradley. But they never brought on to the whole idea of attack helicopter idea, after watching what happen to Mi-24 Hinds in their war with the Soviet Union. They have a home grown transport helicopter. They brought into the Patriot missile system for SAM use.

[Uruk]

I think you have to choose between Swedish nuclear weapons and NATO. I cant see NATO allowing Sweden to break the NPT while being a member of that organization.

[EternalCynic]

Originally Posted by Uruk

I think you have to choose between Swedish nuclear weapons and NATO. I cant see NATO allowing Sweden to break the NPT while being a member of that organization.

I think in this case, four of the five NPT nuclear powers will have no problem with Sweden obtaining nukes, while the Soviets will have no diplomatic leverage to oppose it.

What happens to Finland? They'll obviously be shtting bricks during this whole crisis.

[Jim Smitty]

Originally Posted by Uruk

I think you have to choose between Swedish nuclear weapons and NATO. I cant see NATO allowing Sweden to break the NPT while being a member of that organization.

I figure after what Sweden had just been though, they would go after both. But if Sweden could only do one of the two which would it be?

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Jim Smitty

I figure after what Sweden had just been though, they would go after both. But if Sweden could only do one of the two which would it be?

NATO, in all likelihood.

[Jim Smitty]

Originally Posted by EternalCynic

I think in this case, four of the five NPT nuclear powers will have no problem with Sweden obtaining nukes, while the Soviets will have no diplomatic leverage to oppose it.

What happens to Finland? They'll obviously be shtting bricks during this whole crisis.

Finland was shitting major bricks during the crisis. But other than that, I haven't figure out much more as to what happen in Finland.