March 7th, 1936

[Viceroy]

I'd like to begin planning my first TL, and would like some imput. The general premise is that France and Germany go to war over the remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936.

France divides germany up into for states, and along with the democracies in eastern and central Europe forms a proto-EU, excluding the British. Fascism takes hold in Italy and Iberia, and the British and Americans fight Japan over atrocities and agression in China/The Pacific.

Any imput?

[Shtudmuffin]

Originally Posted by Viceroy

I'd like to begin planning my first TL, and would like some imput. The general premise is that France and Germany go to war over the remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936.

France divides germany up into for states, and along with the democracies in eastern and central Europe forms a proto-EU, excluding the British. Fascism takes hold in Italy and Iberia, and the British and Americans fight Japan over atrocities and agression in China/The Pacific.

Any imput?

To start, welcome to the board.


Well, first off, it's nowhere near gauranteed that France/the Allies will win this one. Britain and France are only starting to rearm. Hell, France probably wouldn't declare war for that very reason. But anyway, if the war happens, I would predict that Germany rolls over France and easily cripples the RAF. I'm not entirely sure what the Soviets would do, though. And just because things happen differently in Europe, doesn't mean that things in the Far East such as Pearl Harbor will happen so differently or will be butterflied away. That being said, don't assume EVERYTHING will stay the same.


Anyway, though, my knowledge on this subject is limited, so I'll wait to be corrected by those after me. Good premise, but needs a little more investigation and research.

[Hades]

There was no way the Germans would be able to win, seeing as their army was mostly bark and no bite. Indeed, the plan was that if France called them on the remilitarisation of the rhineland, they would fall back. Think about what that would do to the Nazi image.

[StevoJH]

@Shtudmuffin,

This was 1936, not 1939.

The Luftwaffe was only "officially" formed in 1935.

While they have just over 4000 aircraft by the start of the war in 1939, it would have been a much different story in 1936.

Not to mention the rapid expansion of the German Army during those years.

[Meadow]

Indeed, it's well documented that the Heer's orders were to turn and 'run back the way you came' if they encountered any resistance from the French at any level. Germany was less ready for a war in 1936 than even Britain was.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Shtudmuffin

To start, welcome to the board.


Well, first off, it's nowhere near gauranteed that France/the Allies will win this one. Britain and France are only starting to rearm. Hell, France probably wouldn't declare war for that very reason. But anyway, if the war happens, I would predict that Germany rolls over France and easily cripples the RAF. I'm not entirely sure what the Soviets would do, though. And just because things happen differently in Europe, doesn't mean that things in the Far East such as Pearl Harbor will happen so differently or will be butterflied away. That being said, don't assume EVERYTHING will stay the same.


Anyway, though, my knowledge on this subject is limited, so I'll wait to be corrected by those after me. Good premise, but needs a little more investigation and research.

There was no German army in 1936 able to hold up against the Italians, let alone the French. 1936 war produces a rapid, brutal curbstomp of the Germans by the French.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by StevoJH

@Shtudmuffin,

This was 1936, not 1939.

The Luftwaffe was only "officially" formed in 1935.

While they have just over 4000 aircraft by the start of the war in 1939, it would have been a much different story in 1936.

Not to mention the rapid expansion of the German Army during those years.

And as it was even in 1940 there was no margin of superiority anywhere for Germany in a qualitative or quantitative sense. Rather what there was was a very huge gamble working just right because the French used all their reserves in Belgium.

[Viceroy]

Question: How do you think Britain would react to having France unilaterally enter war without consulting/informing them? I'd like to have the general British political mindset trend away from Europe and towards the Empire during the TL. How else could I do that?

[ccdsah]

Originally Posted by Viceroy

Question: How do you think Britain would react to having France unilaterally enter war without consulting/informing them? I'd like to have the general British political mindset trend away from Europe and towards the Empire during the TL. How else could I do that?

You don't get it! There would be no war! The puny German forces would retreat at the slightest sign French showed hostile intentions

[Viceroy]

Originally Posted by ccdsah

You don't get it! There would be no war! The puny German forces would retreat at the slightest sign French showed hostile intentions

Alright, I understand what you're saying. What I'm saying is that France would actively attack the Germans once they had fled the initial firefight on the Rhine, annihilating the entire Nazi political structure and dividing the country between several states (i.e. Bavaria)

[Meadow]

Originally Posted by Viceroy

Alright, I understand what you're saying. What I'm saying is that France would actively attack the Germans once they had fled the initial firefight on the Rhine, annihilating the entire Nazi political structure and dividing the country between several states (i.e. Bavaria)

I'm not sure the French political situation in 1936 allows for this. A humiliation of the Germans would lead to a surge in support for the vindicated French government, and Hitler would be rightly seen as kept in check. There'd be no need to take any action apart from perhaps a temporary occupation of the Rhineland by the French.

[Fredrick II Barbarossa]

Originally Posted by Meadow

I'm not sure the French political situation in 1936 allows for this. A humiliation of the Germans would lead to a surge in support for the vindicated French government, and Hitler would be rightly seen as kept in check. There'd be no need to take any action apart from perhaps a temporary occupation of the Rhineland by the French.

so basically the same thing they did before the depression?

[Mikestone8]

Originally Posted by Meadow

I'm not sure the French political situation in 1936 allows for this. A humiliation of the Germans would lead to a surge in support for the vindicated French government, and Hitler would be rightly seen as kept in check. There'd be no need to take any action apart from perhaps a temporary occupation of the Rhineland by the French.

The occupation of the Ruhr did not produce a surge of support for the French governemnt. On the contrary, it was defeated at the polls in Jan 1924. Why assume that it would be different in 1936?

Also, if there is only to be a short occupation of the Rhineland, what happens when the French leave. Assuming that German rearmament continues, a point will soon be reached where they can reoccupy and get away with it. Sincce in any case French military plans now focus on the Maginot Line, hence imply writing off the DMZ, what exactly has been achieved?

[Meadow]

Originally Posted by Mikestone8

The occupation of the Ruhr did not produce a surge of support for the French governemnt. On the contrary, it was defeated at the polls in Jan 1924. Why assume that it would be different in 1936?

Also, if there is only to be a short occupation of the Rhineland, what happens when the French leave. Assuming that German rearmament continues, a point will soon be reached where they can reoccupy and get away with it. Sincce in any case French military plans now focus on the Maginot Line, hence imply writing off the DMZ, what exactly has been achieved?

Humiliating the Germany of 1923 can't be compared with the hypothetical containment of the Germany of 1936.

[The Red]

Originally Posted by Meadow

Indeed, it's well documented that the Heer's orders were to turn and 'run back the way you came' if they encountered any resistance from the French at any level. Germany was less ready for a war in 1936 than even Britain was.

Whilst the plan was for a hasty retreat back behind the Rhine, that was the plan of Field Marshal Van Blomberg, not Hitler. As Commander in Chief Van Blomberg was left responsible for any "possible military countermeasures" however when Hitler found that the true nature of those orders were 'run away', I doubt the Field Marshal would be around for long.

[Mikestone8]

Originally Posted by Meadow

Humiliating the Germany of 1923 can't be compared with the hypothetical containment of the Germany of 1936.

Why not? Would the average French voter be any keener on intervening in the Rhineland than in the Ruhr? after all, French (and British) occupation troops had been pulled from the region in 1930 - five years ahead of schedule. Would there be any real interest in going back for any length of time?

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Originally Posted by The Red

Whilst the plan was for a hasty retreat back behind the Rhine, that was the plan of Field Marshal Van Blomberg, not Hitler. As Commander in Chief Van Blomberg was left responsible for any "possible military countermeasures" however when Hitler found that the true nature of those orders were 'run away', I doubt the Field Marshal would be around for long.

Hitler survived quite a few assassination attempts. Perhaps something like this:

One person (and his family if they were also threatened) is not locatable during the Night of the Long Knives (1934). This person escapes to notify the French of Hitler's personality, and that - while he doesn't have specifics, he suspects that while the Germans may try to turn tail and run, Hitler won't allow it. This allows for your butterfly of the French deciding to make a stand agaisnt Hitler, provided this figure (you'll have to research who) takes care of the rest.

Hitler orders Von Blomberg to "disappear permanently" and then this figure takes revenge by shooting Hitler. A small Civiil War ensues, doing the dmage that France might not have the desire to do in pushing further. Your Tl could then have the nations of Prussia (military dicatorship under one of the survivng Field Marshals) and whatever else you want.

I don't know if this is the sort of thing you're looking for, but I think it's more plausible than just "France splits it into 4 nations." Although you could see the League of Nations sit the sides down and say, in effect, "Why don't you each go to one part of Germany and not bother the others."

[Magnum]

If there's war, there's a big chance France goes bankrupt and defaults on its payments, as it was in the middle of a big financial crisis they barely got out of.

[Living in Exile]

How severely would the French respond realistically? It seems reasonable to imagine the French expelling the Nazis from the Rhineland, and the war ending there. But to get a scenario like the OP is talking about, the French need to make the decision to go in and remove Hitler from power, which seems like it would take a lot more effort. As the writer of the timeline, you need to come up with a good POD or reason why the French go all out Viceroy. I don't know how much detail you're planning on going into, but I'd research what military units the French/Nazis had to fight this war.

[Viceroy]

For plausability's sake, I will have Germany break up through civil war in the face of a humiliating defeat by France. The French will mediate and draw up new borders.

Thanks for the input.