PC: Zhu Gaoxu continues Zheng Ho Expeditions

[John Fredrick Parker]

Basically, if this guy became Emperor (instead of his brother or nephew), might that be a sufficient PoD to preserve Ming China's maritime expansions?

[LSCatilina]

Not really. It was discussed in another thread, but Ming's maritime Empire was China's sea.
The expedition in Indian Ocean was less based on economic goal than "let's proove everyone we can do it and that China is the best. It would show them".

Furthermore, China had serious issue at this time : revolts and pressure on borders.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Well there goes that idea... unless anyone wants to argue w LSC's assessment

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

Well there goes that idea... unless anyone wants to argue w LSC's assessment

No, he pretty much nailed it. China was never "expanding" overseas in the manner that the European nations were to do a century later. There never was any thought of establishing colonies or anything like that.

[John Fredrick Parker]

OK, if "empite" is the wrong word here, what about "influence" (trade routes and the like)? Does this mean Zhengo Ho like expeditions couldn't continue?

[LSCatilina]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

OK, if "empite" is the wrong word here, what about "influence" (trade routes and the like)? Does this mean Zhengo Ho like expeditions couldn't continue?

More usable trade routes were land ones. At least for what interested Chine, that wasn't interested at all on what Indian Ocean country could give to the Empire.

[Strategos' Risk]

It's one of those meta-conclusions of AH discussion: like the possibility of North African caliphates or Italian city-states (like Venice) discovering the New World, Chinese maritime expansion is just as unlikely because both sets of governments had tried-and-true trade routes, discarding the need for innovation in that aspect.

[Paul Spring]

What I wonder is what if the Ming had stopped sending out official expeditions but hadn't forbade Chinese merchants from actively trading in the region. It wasn't just that the Ming stopped official involvement in the Indian Ocean - they did their best to stop any Chinese subject from traveling and trading in the region.

[Elfwine]

On overseas expansion: http://www.1421exposed.com/html/zheng_he.html

#4.

Nothing like Europe's voyages of exploration and exploitation (given that this was all in known waters), but not just "China is the best." without any force behind it either.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Originally Posted by Paul Spring

What I wonder is what if the Ming had stopped sending out official expeditions but hadn't forbade Chinese merchants from actively trading in the region. It wasn't just that the Ming stopped official involvement in the Indian Ocean - they did their best to stop any Chinese subject from traveling and trading in the region.

That may be what I'm thinking of

Originally Posted by Elfwine

On overseas expansion: http://www.1421exposed.com/html/zheng_he.html

#4.

Nothing like Europe's voyages of exploration and exploitation (given that this was all in known waters), but not just "China is the best." without any force behind it either.

This what you're talking about. Hm then, I suppose it really could have been "empire"... though it's a far from settled subject.

[Elfwine]

Well, conquest and subjugation that's overseas only in the sense it isn't overland, but on that sort of imperialist model that we know from say, Rome (roughly) is all that the OTL expeditions were about. Something that continues them doesn't lead to anything new like the Americas under China's rule.

[wolf_brother]

Let's not forget that Zheng He wasn't the only great explorer of the Ming dynasty.

Wikipedia has this nifty image on the subject showing the approximate routes of Zheng He (black), Yishiha (blue), and Chen Cheng (green).

[John Fredrick Parker]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Well, conquest and subjugation that's overseas only in the sense it isn't overland, but on that sort of imperialist model that we know from say, Rome (roughly) is all that the OTL expeditions were about. Something that continues them doesn't lead to anything new like the Americas under China's rule.

Oh hardly -- actually, going by wolf brothers map, I'd say an optimistic but fair assessment might allow for China to "reach" the Cape of Good Hope before the Portugese round it, but even then there's the question of what, exactly, they do there...

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

Oh hardly -- actually, going by wolf brothers map, I'd say an optimistic but fair assessment might allow for China to "reach" the Cape of Good Hope before the Portugese round it, but even then there's the question of what, exactly, they do there...

I'm sure China could reach it. I wouldn't even say being blown off course is impossible (without having a chart of the wind patterns open at the moment).

But I would not say it had anything to do with the purpose of Ming China's overseas expeditions. Collecting tribute, on the other hand, quite a lot.

[Simreeve]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

I'm sure China could reach it. I wouldn't even say being blown off course is impossible (without having a chart of the wind patterns open at the moment).

I seem to recall reading that a strong northwards current between Africa and Madagascar made following the African coast any further south than the OTL Arabs actually did impractical. Then again, I don't know enough about the differences in ability between the Arabs' ships and the Ming Chinese ones to say whether that same limitation would have applied to the Chinese as well...

[wolf_brother]

Guys, the issue at hand here isn't whether or not the Chinese could physically set up trading outposts and follow a colonial pattern akin to what the OTL Euopeans did - of course they could. They choose not to. PODs involving ships getting blown off course isn't going to result in anything except a few dead Chinese on some damned island in the middle of nowhere. What we need is a change in succession following the Yongle Emperor. Perhaps, as John Fredrick Parker suggests in the OP, Zhu Gaoxu succeeds in his rebellion, or he's never banished to begin with, or etc.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Guys, the issue at hand here isn't whether or not the Chinese could physically set up trading outposts and follow a colonial pattern akin to what the OTL Euopeans did - of course they could. They choose not to. PODs involving ships getting blown off course isn't going to result in anything except a few dead Chinese on some damned island in the middle of nowhere. What we need is a change in succession following the Yongle Emperor. Perhaps, as John Fredrick Parker suggests in the OP, Zhu Gaoxu succeeds in his rebellion, or he's never banished to begin with, or etc.

Why is he going to pay for these continuing, let alone a European style project (on a Chinese scale)?

Even if he's not opposed to them on principle, they're still hardly cheap. That is a problem.

[wolf_brother]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Why is he going to pay for these continuing, let alone a European style project (on a Chinese scale)?

Even if he's not opposed to them on principle, they're still hardly cheap. That is a problem.

Its not like the Chinese state was without money in the late 1300s early 1400s. And its not like the European states, who had significantly less cash, didn't carry out these exact same projects IOTL - and that was with relying on merchants, bankers, and wealthy nobles to support most of the crown projects.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Its not like the Chinese state was without money in the late 1300s early 1400s. And its not like the European states, who had significantly less cash, didn't carry out these exact same projects IOTL - and that was with relying on merchants, bankers, and wealthy nobles to support most of the crown projects.

No, it just had big expenses elsewhere. And continued Zheng He's expeditions or the like is much more expensive than say, de Gama's voyages.

I'm not saying it can't be done, but my first reaction, speaking from the standpoint of an Emperor with bigger concerns than Africa: Can the money that would be spent on this accomplish more desirable things?

Either short term or long term, but especially the former (since short term needs have to be met in order to worry about the long term).

[Malta Shah]

You don't need the Empire's approval. Go with the merchants. Go with smaller ships. People seem to get so hooked on the. Treasure Ships they forget that China had other ships. Or just butterfly Neo Confucianism