Different 12th Amendment; Consequences 1824 and 1860?

[Mikestone8]

We've had some discussions about what happens if Henry Clay gets one more vote than Crawford in 1824, so that his name went with Adams and Jackson to the HoR. However, from Ch11 of Kuroda's The Origins Of The Twelfth Amendment, I came across another way he could have gotten there. The passage is as follows -


'On Monday, May 3, 1802, the day the Congress had chosen to adjourn, the Senate received the House proposal. The text was short and did not reveal where and how the words would fit into Article II: "That in all future elections of President and Vice President the persons voted for shall be particularly designated, by declaring which is voted for as President and which as Vice President". The Senate tabled the measure for consideration later in the afternoon, when without much discussion it voted 15-8 in favour of the House proposal, just one vote shy of the mandatory two-thirds.'


As a result, matters were held over until the next session of Congress, where various alternative proposals were offered, and it would be December 1803 before the 12th Amendment was finally sent to the States, and ratified just in time for the 1804 election. Bit had one more Senator turned up to vote yea, or one of the nays been held up and missed the vote, there would have been no time for second thoughts, and in all probability the original proposal would have been ratified.


This makes two differences; firstly the old provision, allowing the HoR to choose from the five highest placed candidates, remains in effect. They aren't limited to the first three. So Clay (and possibly Calhoun if he opts to remain in the Presidential race) is still in the running. Secondly, apart from designation, there is no change to how the Vice President is chosen, so presumably he need not receive the votes of a majority of electors, but needs only a plurality.

So in 1824 the Clay states
don't vote for Adams, and the next two or three ballots probably don't produce a result. The Congressmen start rallying round their Speaker, and Clay is elected. Any thoughts on how he does? Will he be a one-term President like Adams, or will he be re-elected in 1828? If so what future for Adams and Jackson?


The effects of the other change are more subtle, but could be interesting. Butterflies permitting, there will be a trivial one in 1837, since Richard M Johnson has a plurality, so the Senate vote is not required. However, it might have some interesting effects on the dynamics of 1860. We've talked a lot about a deadlocked election leading to either Breckinridge winning in the House, or his running-mate, Joseph Lane, winning the Vice Presidency in the Senate, and maybe the Presidency should the HoR be deadlocked. However, this will now be far less likely. Barring a miracle, the Republicans are going to have a plurality of the Electoral College, so Hamlin, or whoever may have been chosen instead, is all but certain to be VP.

In this situation, the Republicans, even if they fail to elect Lincoln (or whoever) will do their darndest to maintain the deadlock through March 4, so that their man can take office. So the South know well before the election that a Republican win is all but guaranteed. Might they secede earlier, without waiting for the election? Any other thoughts?