Conservative fifth term

[MrwBrightside]

How possible would this have been in 1997? Who would have had to lead the Conservative and Labour Parties, would there have been a Tory-Liberal Democrat coalition like today, and what would be the future ramifications?

[The Red]

It depends when your Point of Divergence is, but almost impossible after 1992.

[MrwBrightside]

Perhaps if Brown-Blair decided to run off together to Lesbos and open a gay bar instead of politics, and John Prescott became Labour leader?

[The Red]

Originally Posted by MrwBrightside

Perhaps if Brown-Blair decided to run off together to Lesbos and open a gay bar instead of politics, and John Prescott became Labour leader?

I think even Prescott could have pulled off a victory in 1997.

[MrwBrightside]

My dream of a dystopian Tory Britain won't come to fruition then!

[Simreeve]

Originally Posted by The Red

I think even Prescott could have pulled off a victory in 1997.

Kinnock? Foot?

[The Red]

Originally Posted by Simreeve

Kinnock? Foot?

Kinnock probably would have done better than Prescott.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Originally Posted by MrwBrightside

My dream of a dystopian Tory Britain won't come to fruition then!

Dystopian?

One way, and this is going on a very large leap, is to have John Major resign in reaction to Black Wednesday as he originally planned (even drafting a resignation speech) and have Malcolm Rifkind take over as Portillo is too young and Heseltine is too loathed by the right-wing backbenchers he needs for 'stabbing Thatcher in the back' as he then institutes a move to the left with policies such as a separate Scottish Tory party, Scottish Assembly and other changes but with more Euroscepticism then Major which keeps the backbenchers in line. Even then we only ensure that the Tories get around 1987 Labour results so we need to get rid of Blair, Brown and Mandelson by having an explosion at the Granita as done by one of Meadow's scenario's a few months back which allows for Beckett, Prescott and Straw to fight it out with a small win for Beckett over Straw as the party starts fighting against itself over things such as electoral reform since Beckett is no Tony Blair.

Added with the credit given to Rifkind and Clarke for getting Britain our of the recession that Major/Clarke didn't because of the media campaign to destroy him and massive backbench division that may get a majority for the Conservatives but it would not be anything big, possibly single digit majority, and Labour will just get a strong majority in 2001 with a new leader (Straw is more likely due to a discredited left wing).

[Peg Leg Pom]

Only if the Cold War was still going on and Labour had elected a leader that was somewhat to to the left of Eric Honecker. The Tories had been in power too long and suffered too much internal division for them to win without the opposition commiting mass electoral suicide.

[Peelitebkearns]

Originally Posted by MrwBrightside

How possible would this have been in 1997? Who would have had to lead the Conservative and Labour Parties, would there have been a Tory-Liberal Democrat coalition like today, and what would be the future ramifications?

I really can't see a way back for the conservatives once Major pulls off his upset victory. Major resigning and Prescott being leader would reduce the defeat and enable the Tories to come back in 2005/6, but you probably need Kinnock and co in power from 1992 for a non-ASB Tory win.

[Basileus Giorgios]

Originally Posted by Blackadder mk 2

Dystopian?

One way, and this is going on a very large leap, is to have John Major resign in reaction to Black Wednesday as he originally planned (even drafting a resignation speech) and have Malcolm Rifkind take over as Portillo is too young and Heseltine is too loathed by the right-wing backbenchers he needs for 'stabbing Thatcher in the back' as he then institutes a move to the left with policies such as a separate Scottish Tory party, Scottish Assembly and other changes but with more Euroscepticism then Major which keeps the backbenchers in line. Even then we only ensure that the Tories get around 1987 Labour results so we need to get rid of Blair, Brown and Mandelson by having an explosion at the Granita as done by one of Meadow's scenario's a few months back which allows for Beckett, Prescott and Straw to fight it out with a small win for Beckett over Straw as the party starts fighting against itself over things such as electoral reform since Beckett is no Tony Blair.

Added with the credit given to Rifkind and Clarke for getting Britain our of the recession that Major/Clarke didn't because of the media campaign to destroy him and massive backbench division that may get a majority for the Conservatives but it would not be anything big, possibly single digit majority, and Labour will just get a strong majority in 2001 with a new leader (Straw is more likely due to a discredited left wing).

That might be the best way to do it- but even that scenario, if not outright ASB, is very unlikely. IIRC, John Major himself was certain of the impossibility of a fifth term within a few hours of his 1992 victory.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Originally Posted by Basileus Giorgios

That might be the best way to do it- but even that scenario, if not outright ASB, is very unlikely. IIRC, John Major himself was certain of the impossibility of a fifth term within a few hours of his 1992 victory.

The scenario would be a one in a million chance for a Conservative fifth term (only way I would see a narrow majority to go with the scenario would be Good Friday under Rifkind and Cook's cheating habits being made public during the election) but would allow for a strong Tory opposition, slightly weaker LibDem boom and a narrow Labour majority.

The goal of 1992-97 for the Tories was more trying to have as strong a position as possible.

[Arachnid]

What about having Lamont and Major wake up to the ERM crisis a bit earlier and either pull out of somehow fudge it before our reputation for economic competence was completely ruined. It's a very difficult ask but might it be possible?

[Well]

Originally Posted by Arachnid

What about having Lamont and Major wake up to the ERM crisis a bit earlier and either pull out of somehow fudge it before our reputation for economic competence was completely ruined. It's a very difficult ask but might it be possible?

The thing is, the deck was already stacked against the Tories by 1997; no modern government has ever ruled so long, and all the little things that governments do that annoy people accrue and the reaction is just to throw them out because people like a change. The ERM just helped to turn certain defeat into landslide.

You could cheat and have a Conservative minority government elected in 1991 and then re-elected as a majority in 1992, which would give you a technical 'fifth term', but that doesn't really count...

Some sort of national emergency might be the best bet...

[Peelitebkearns]

Perhaps the only way to do this is to bring about a National government of all the parties somehow, which technically lasts beyond 1997.

[Cook]

Originally Posted by Simreeve

Kinnock? Foot?

Probably the only thing that could have given Major a win in ’97 would have been a political comeback by Kinnock and the true believers.