a new black death in 1970

[Straha]

Lets play doomster.

A new flu bug / a new black death. Something leathal but not world
destroying. Sweeps the world in 1970 and within 12 months 30-40% of first world (US, Europe, East Asian Tigers, ANZAC, the few others with real national health services and low malnutrition rates mlike Israel) dies. 50-60% of second world (old Socialists block), 65-80% of rest of planet. Death
concentrated on over 40's and those with weaknesses - druggies, chronic
health problems, the severely malnourished or over or under weight, infants
and very small children. Does the world recover economically? Socially?
What does it do to religion, ideology, immigration barriers?

[basileus]

I bet the survivors' medical science would be 30 years ahed of ours by now.
The ecomy, though, would be fiercely protectionistic-autarchic, trips between different countries would be scarce and severely controlled, state control would be much harsher even in the self-proclaimed "free world". It wopuld be a paranoid, shocked world for many generations to come, probably with a religious-millenaristic rebirth.

[Straha]

well with most of subsaharan africa dying AIDS and ebola might never appear

[NapoleonXIV]

Originally Posted by basileus

I bet the survivors' medical science would be 30 years ahed of ours by now.
The ecomy, though, would be fiercely protectionistic-autarchic, trips between different countries would be scarce and severely controlled, state control would be much harsher even in the self-proclaimed "free world". It wopuld be a paranoid, shocked world for many generations to come, probably with a religious-millenaristic rebirth.

That's not what happened the first time. There was some religious revival, true, but there was equally as much religious decline and overall the black death is seen as generally hastening the secular/mercantile revolution of the Renaissance. The world afterwards was anything but paranoid and shocked in comparison to what had existed before and this was despite the fact that they had no real idea of what had caused the catastrophe and the fact that it periodically returned right up to the 19thc.

Just on the face of it , look at who you are killing off, over 40's, old people, conservatives.

[Straha]

true so pot would definately end up becoming legal in this TL with the youth having a larger voice in politics

[David Howery]

I knew it... you designed this scenario just to get pot legal, didn't you..
actually, any type of massive die off in this world would be bad, worse than the original Black Death. Back then, there was a lot larger % of the population involved in food production. It's a lot smaller today... kill off 30% of the farmers in the US, and the rest of us are in trouble.....

[Straha]

no its just a result of the more conservative sector of the population being hit the hardest

[NapoleonXIV]

Originally Posted by David Howery

I knew it... you designed this scenario just to get pot legal, didn't you..
actually, any type of massive die off in this world would be bad, worse than the original Black Death. Back then, there was a lot larger % of the population involved in food production. It's a lot smaller today... kill off 30% of the farmers in the US, and the rest of us are in trouble.....

Yes , but you're killing off 30% of the eaters as well, so it sorta evens out...now if the plague just hit farmers....
My understanding is the opposite is true. Kill off the same ratio as the Black Death and the world still has about 10x the no. of people as the BD started with. (or maybe not those nos. but my point remains) .Even the BD itself was little more than a blip with the nos replaced in a few generations. The amazing fecundity of our race means that we will always see the 4 Horsemen dead from overwork before we even breath hard.

One thing it might do is give new theories of disease and particularly epidemilology some hundreds of years progress in just a few. There would be a great outcry to somehow prevent this from ever happening again

[DominusNovus]

Originally Posted by SurfNTurfStraha

true so pot would definately end up becoming legal in this TL with the youth having a larger voice in politics

You just can't help yourself, can you? Not everyone under 30 is in favor of legalizing pot, you know (beyond medical purposes).

[Grey Wolf]

The UN was already strong, but hamstrung by petty differences. The catastrophe outlined here would increase their influence, bring down barriers, increase the powers of the international organisations etc

IMVHO

Grey Wolf